Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1220 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Updating zones to add dry and gusty thunderstorms to the forecast
across east central areas, since storms are already beginning to
fire up there.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 450 AM MDT Tue Jan 27 2023 Added the mention of strong
to severe storms in portions of northeast New Mexico per the
latest SPC Day 1 outlook. Also mentioned isolated thunder this
morning over portions of northwest New Mexico. ZFP update just
sent.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 450 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Hot temperatures will persist throughout the week, with hazardous
heat expected in the eastern and southeastern plains today and
tomorrow. Temperatures will begin a cooling trend thereafter.
Breezy to locally conditions will favor western New Mexico and the
northern mountains today in the afternoon. Daily rounds of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
with activity today and tomorrow being drier in nature. Isolated
strong to severe storms are possible over northeast New Mexico
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Widely scattered light showers and a few lightning strikes have
continued into the overnight mainly along and east of the
Continental Divide to the Texas border. While dew points continue to
slowly climb, the dryline has seeped back into far eastern New
Mexico, although the potential for low clouds doesn't appear all
that likely given the amount of mid level clouds observed. Didn't
fuss with the current Wind Advisory for today, but can't rule out
some other areas at least hitting advisory speeds at some point this
afternoon, especially the Northeast Highlands where there are
greater differences in guidance speeds. Also added Roosevelt County
to the inherited Heat Advisory, as Portales could reach criteria
this afternoon as well as heat up close to the record high
temperature. Models in general agreement a swath of convection will
be concentrated from southwest to northeast over the state this
afternoon into the early evening. This would still be mostly dry but
as earlier noted dew points have been slowly increasing but even the
NAM12 isn't enthused about any rain amounts of more than a few
hundredths of an inch. Higher humidities may also advect northward
into southeast and portions of east central New Mexico tonight but
moreso Wednesday night. Wednesday's winds won't be quite as strong
as today's but convection will return in the afternoon again
stretching from southwest to northeast over the state. High
temperatures Wednesday will be a degree or two "cooler" for the west
and south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Upper level high pressure center will position itself over the TX/LA
border Wednesday night as a baggy trough swings into the Great
Basin. This will help to offer some relief to the heat felt earlier
in the week. Roswell, who up until this point is forecast to have 10
days of temperatures over 105F, will be right on the razor's edge of
adding one more day to the streak Thursday. Thankfully, models
suggest that the streak should end there, with Friday's high dipping
down to 102F. An influx of moisture from the Baja combining with the
elevated lift from the aforementioned trough, will give rise to a
few showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain Thursday
afternoon. The trough continues its trek to the Rockies Friday, the
positive tilt of which drapes its axis across the Four Corners
area. Another rough of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, favoring eastern NM. A messy pattern results
thereafter, with high pressure struggling to reform over the
southwest corner of the CONUS Friday night into Saturday. The
trough ejects into the Great Plains Saturday, kicking off a
backdoor front in its wake down the eastern plains. The extra lift
will help to give rise to additional thunderstorm activity and
may potentially bring a bout of east winds to the ABQ metro
Saturday morning. The upper high solidifies itself on Sunday as a
slug of moisture finds an avenue through the Chihuahuan Desert.
This will lead to greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon, particularly across the central mts and
eastward. Given the richer moisture profile, flash flooding will
be a concern, especially across recent burn scars.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023

Gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms will impact TAF sites
east of the continental divide this afternoon and evening, except
they shouldn't reach as far south as Roswell. Erratic dry
microburst wind gusts could exceed 45 kt in some cells. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Convection looks to settle down by midnight tonight,
but isolated and mainly dry and gusty showers and storms look to
return to many areas on Wednesday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2023

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST, WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TODAY...

Hot, dry, and unstable weather to continue for the rest of the work
week for most areas. The upper level high pressure system is
forecast to shift to the northwest of NM by the weekend. In the
meantime, plentiful mid level moisture will be stretched from
southwest to northeast over the state, and will be fuel for mostly
dry showers and thunderstorms with gusty variable winds today
through Thursday. Stronger southwest winds today look to weaken
somewhat on Wednesday, limiting the potential for critical
conditions, although overnight humidity recovery will continue to be
fair to poor. Low level moisture will seep back into the eastern
side of the state by Friday and into the weekend with better
overnight humidity recovery, which will allow for increasing
potential for wetter convection along and east of the central
mountain chain. Western NM will remain dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  54  93  56 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  87  44  87  47 /  20   0   5   5
Cuba............................  87  52  88  55 /  20   5   5   0
Gallup..........................  91  49  90  50 /  10   0   0   0
El Morro........................  88  50  87  53 /  10   0   5   5
Grants..........................  92  51  91  52 /  10   0   5   0
Quemado.........................  91  54  90  57 /  10   0   5   0
Magdalena.......................  92  62  90  62 /  20  10  20   5
Datil...........................  89  55  87  58 /  10   5  10   0
Reserve.........................  94  55  93  51 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  99  66  97  65 /  10   0   0   0
Chama...........................  81  44  82  46 /  20   5   5   0
Los Alamos......................  87  56  88  62 /  20  20  10   5
Pecos...........................  88  57  88  59 /  20  20  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  84  47  85  49 /  20  10  10   5
Red River.......................  77  43  79  46 /  20  20  20   5
Angel Fire......................  78  42  79  41 /  20  10  10   5
Taos............................  87  49  88  50 /  20  10  10   5
Mora............................  85  52  86  54 /  20  20  10  10
Espanola........................  92  52  93  59 /  20  10   5   5
Santa Fe........................  89  57  89  61 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  92  56  92  59 /  20  10   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  95  65  94  68 /  20  10   5   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  66  96  66 /  20  10   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  60  98  64 /  20  10   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  65  95  66 /  20  10   5   5
Belen...........................  99  65  98  62 /  20  10   0   0
Bernalillo......................  97  62  97  65 /  20  10   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  99  63  98  61 /  20  10   5   0
Corrales........................  97  63  96  66 /  20  10   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  99  65  98  62 /  20  10   0   0
Placitas........................  94  63  93  66 /  20  10   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  96  64  95  66 /  20  10   5   5
Socorro......................... 101  68 100  67 /  20  10   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  59  88  62 /  20  10  10   5
Tijeras.........................  92  61  91  63 /  20  10  10   5
Edgewood........................  92  58  91  58 /  20  10  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  94  55  92  54 /  20  10  10  10
Clines Corners..................  90  58  89  58 /  10  20  10  10
Mountainair.....................  92  60  91  59 /  10  10  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  93  61  92  61 /  10  10  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  97  67  96  68 /  10  10   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  89  63  88  63 /  10  10  10   5
Capulin.........................  88  57  89  59 /  20  10  20   5
Raton...........................  91  56  93  57 /  20  10  10   5
Springer........................  91  57  93  59 /  20  10  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  89  57  90  57 /  20  10  10   5
Clayton.........................  96  66  97  67 /  20  20  10   0
Roy.............................  92  61  94  63 /  20  10  10   0
Conchas.........................  99  65  98  67 /  10  10  10   5
Santa Rosa...................... 100  66  98  65 /  10  10   5   5
Tucumcari....................... 103  69 103  68 /  10  10   0   0
Clovis.......................... 103  70 102  69 /  10  10   0   5
Portales........................ 105  71 103  70 /  10   5   0   0
Fort Sumner..................... 104  69 103  68 /  10  10   0   0
Roswell......................... 110  73 107  73 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho......................... 101  68  99  66 /   5  10   5   0
Elk.............................  96  65  95  63 /   5   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-123-
125.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ202-205.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ236-240.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...44