Severe Thunderstorm Warning 320, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1158 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 109 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Hot to very hot and dry weather will continue during the next
week. High temperatures are forecast to peak early next week with
near record highs possible for many locations Monday and Tuesday.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase slightly late next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 109 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

A Pacific low over central CA will progress northeast across the
Great Basin to the northern US Plains by Saturday, steering an even
drier airmass over the region. The Pacific low will also steer
slightly stronger winds aloft over the area today, resulting in
windier conditions with frequent gusts to between 35-45mph by late
day due to deep layer mixing of the atmosphere to over 500mb. The
central highlands has been added to the existing Wind Advisory for
today. Low level moisture across central NM is forecast to mix-out,
but a dryline will sharpen up across the eastern plains and may help
to trigger a few late day storms near the TX border. If storms do
develop, they would likely become severe and this area is included in
the slight risk area of the day1 SPC convective outlook. Otherwise,
continued hot conditions are forecast today and a Heat Advisory is
in effect for the Chaves County plains. Increasing pressure heights
are forecast on Saturday and will bring less wind and high temps
about a degree or so hotter than today's. Roswell is forecast to 109
on Saturday, just one degree shy of the daily record and a Heat
Advisory is already in effect for the Chaves County plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 109 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Monsoon high remains centered over northern Mexico Saturday night
through Sunday night with dry westerly flow aloft over NM. Models
agree that the monsoon high will then build northeastward to over
far southeast NM early next week. GFS and to a lesser extent the
ECWMF, bring up a weak short-wave in increasing southwest flow
aloft Tuesday. Enough mid level moisture is forecast to move up
from the southwest for another round of isolated high based
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Monsoon high is then
progged to anchor somewhere over central TX around mid week with
NM on the northwest periphery of the high. GFS tries to bring up
moisture between the high to the southeast and an upper-level
trough to the west Thursday and Friday while the ECWMF sends the
monsoon high westward through northern Mexico while at the same
time sending a backdoor front into eastern NM. Heat impacts will
once again be the main long-term forecast concern while the North
American Monsoon (NAM) sputters as it makes an attempt to get
underway.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Low ceilings have cleared across northeast NM late this morning
and VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF
period. Isolated strong storms capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds are possible in eastern NM near the TX border this
afternoon and early evening. Gusty southwest to west winds are
expected across the region this afternoon. Gusts up to 35 KT are
likely at KABQ therefore an AWW was issued.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 109 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...

A Pacific low moving inland from over central CA will steer stronger
winds and an even drier airmass over the area today. Deep layer
mixing of the atmosphere will result in windy/gusty conditions by
late day and when combined with hot, very dry and unstable
conditions will bring several hours of critical to extreme fire
weather conditions to much of central and western NM. Although the
northeast highlands/plains are included in today's warning, large
fire growth potential will be limited to areas not impacted by
wetting rain from yesterday's storms. Drying of the atmosphere will
continue into Saturday, but with much less wind. Hot, dry and
unstable conditions will then persist through next week as an upper
level high holds-on across the region. However, the latest medium
range model solutions disagree on the amplification of an upstream
Pacific low/trough and the orientation of the upper high to the
south and east of NM. Meaning, there is at least some potential for
the return of critical fire weather conditions around mid week
across western NM where stronger southwest flow may reside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  46  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  82  38  82  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  85  45  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  84  40  86  43 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  83  42  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  88  40  88  42 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  86  46  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  90  54  91  56 /   5   0   0   0
Datil...........................  85  48  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  89  45  91  45 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  93  58  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  77  40  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  86  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  86  53  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  80  44  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  74  42  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  76  38  76  32 /   5   0   0   0
Taos............................  86  42  85  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  83  47  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
Espanola........................  93  50  91  48 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  88  53  87  55 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  91  50  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  59  93  58 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  57  95  57 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  55  97  54 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  56  95  55 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  98  53  99  50 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  97  55  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  98  52  98  51 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  96  57  96  56 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  98  53  98  51 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  93  57  92  56 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  95  56  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  99  59 100  59 /   5   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  53  85  55 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  90  53  88  51 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  90  51  88  48 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  91  48  89  45 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  87  51  86  51 /  10   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  89  53  88  51 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  90  56  90  54 /   5   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  94  64  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  86  61  87  59 /   5   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  84  50  85  49 /  10   0   0   0
Raton...........................  88  49  90  49 /  10   0   0   0
Springer........................  90  49  91  49 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  88  52  87  50 /  10   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  90  58  92  57 /  20  10   0   0
Roy.............................  89  54  90  53 /  10   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  99  58  98  56 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  96  60  95  56 /  10   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  98  62  99  58 /  20   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  97  65  98  62 /  20  20   0   0
Portales........................ 100  65 101  61 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Sumner..................... 100  63 100  58 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 108  69 109  68 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  98  64  99  64 /   5   0   0   0
Elk.............................  94  64  95  61 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106-
109-120>125.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ215-223-227>229.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ238.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...16

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