Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
326 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Very hot weather will continue for the next seven days with
Roswell's high temperature continuing to exceed 105 degrees
through at least Thursday of next week. Roswell's high may vary
around 111 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. Albuquerque may reach
100 degrees both Monday and Tuesday. Except for some strong to
severe storms over northeast and east central areas early this
evening, and some gusty virga showers and dry thunderstorms on
Tuesday, seasonably dry weather is also forecast to persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023

An outflow boundary from a decaying MCS can be seen moving
southwestward across northeast NM. Meanwhile cumulus development
continues to increase along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
mountains where the first few lightning strikes of the afternoon can
be seen. Storm activity is expected to increase shortly as the
outflow boundary collides with this budding convective activity. The
best combination of wind shear and instability is over Colfax,
Harding, and Union counties where discrete supercells are possible
through the late evening. Low ceilings remain entrenched over the
northeast so the stable air may weaken storms as they approach the
TX border late this afternoon and into the evening. If the low
clouds clear, the environment is ripe for strong to severe storms
given the dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and ML CAPE in excess
of 2,000 J/kg. Furthermore, mesoanalysis indicates that bulk
shear may increase to over 50 knots across the northeast this
evening after the LLJ increases the moist, southerly inflow. As a
result, another round of convection is possible after midnight.
Some CAMs show more discrete cells, some show an MCS, and others
show nothing at all. Given the potential for some areas to get hit
multiple times, localized flash flooding will be a concern this
evening and overnight in the far northeast corner of the state.
Low ceilings are expected again tonight across the northeast, but
today and tonight's convective activity will determine exactly
where they occur. The low ceilings are not expected to persist as
long into Friday afternoon as they did today because stronger
westerly winds will pick-up earlier in the day and displace the
moisture to the east.

Tomorrow will be a bit winder than today, particularly along and
immediately east of the central mountains where a Wind Advisory was
issued. Near-record temperatures are likely once again in Roswell so
the heat advisory has been continued into tomorrow. An isolated
strong to severe storm or two is possible tomorrow in far eastern
NM, but the window for convection will be small as the dryline gets
pushed eastward into Texas by the late afternoon. With the dry air
taking over, highs will be 5-10 degrees higher than today's highs
across the northeast and far east central plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023

A staunch upper level high pressure system is forecast to remain
in place over TX and southeast NM throughout the long term
forecast period with high temperatures varying from a few to
around 14 degrees above normal each day, except for some near
normal readings over northern areas Saturday and Sunday.

The main forecast challenge this forecast package was determining
when Roswell may reach Excessive Heat Warning criteria of 110
degrees, and when Albuquerque may reach Heat Advisory Criteria of
100 degrees. Models have moderated a degree or so on the high
temperature forecast for Saturday and Sunday in Roswell, where
highs greater than or equal to 110 F are now not forecast until
Tuesday and Wednesday. A shallow and moist backdoor front that
enters the eastern plains on Sunday may reach as far south as
Roswell by late in the day. However, the front is forecast to
retreat on Monday, when the ridge of high pressure is forecast to
build over NM a bit more in response to a sharpening upper level
trough on the west coast. The best chance for high temperatures
near and above 100 F in Albuquerque looks to occur Monday and
Tuesday. The west coast trough is forecast to eject northeastward
across the Great Basin and northern Rockies Monday night through
Tuesday night, and the latest run of the ECMWF is now trending
toward the ongoing GFS and Canadian Model forecasts of nudging the
upper high eastward some as this happens. This creates some
uncertainty in the high temperature forecast for Tuesday. Models
also depict some elevated subtropical moisture working its way
around the periphery of the upper high with a risk of gusty virga
showers and isolated dry thunderstorms on Tuesday, and to a
lesser extent Wednesday, from the southwest and west central
mountains northeastward across the central and north central
mountains and northeast plains. Nonetheless, near record warmth is
forecast to continue over the southeast plains with heat
highlights likely every day through at least Thursday in Roswell.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023

MVFR to IFR flight conditions persist in far northeastern NM early
this afternoon and the low ceilings will likely hold on for the
next couple of hours. Storms will form along the east slopes of
the northern mountains this afternoon then move into northeast and
east-central NM where a few strong to severe storms are possible.
Gusty and erratic winds are possible near virga showers in
central NM today as well. There is low confidence in another round
of storms late tonight again in the northeast and east-central
plains. MVFR ceilings will likely develop again tonight in the
northeast with the low ceilings potentially spreading as far
south as KTCC and as far west as KLVS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023

...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY...

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist
over the next several days as dry air and breezy southwest to west
winds remain in place over the region. Isolated to scattered storms
will produce localized wetting rains in northeast NM this afternoon
and overnight. Moisture in place will allow for good to excellent
humidity recoveries in the northeast while poor to fair recoveries
are expected across central and western NM. A very dry and unstable
airmass combined with breezy to locally windy conditions will create
widespread critical to extreme fire weather conditions tomorrow
therefore the Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.
The dry and unstable airmass will remain in place over the region
over the weekend and early next week so winds will generally be the
limiting factor on whether a Red Flag Warning will be needed each
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  55  88  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  47  83  39  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  56  86  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  49  84  41  85 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  50  83  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  51  88  41  87 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  54  86  46  88 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  64  89  54  91 /   5   5   0   0
Datil...........................  55  84  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  52  89  45  91 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  63  93  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  48  78  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  60  85  54  84 /   5   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  58  85  54  83 /  10   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  51  79  45  80 /  20   0   0   0
Red River.......................  47  75  43  73 /  10   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  46  76  40  76 /  10   0   0   0
Taos............................  51  86  43  84 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  52  82  48  83 /  10   0   0   0
Espanola........................  59  93  51  91 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  61  86  54  85 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  59  91  51  88 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  95  59  93 /   5  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  96  57  94 /  10  10   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  98  55  96 /  10  10   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  96  56  94 /  10   5   0   0
Belen...........................  67  98  53  98 /  10  10   0   0
Bernalillo......................  65  98  55  95 /   5   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  66  98  52  96 /  10  10   0   0
Corrales........................  67  97  57  95 /   5   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  67  98  54  97 /  10  10   0   0
Placitas........................  66  93  57  91 /   5  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  66  96  56  94 /  10   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  69 100  59 101 /   5   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  86  54  85 /   5  10   0   0
Tijeras.........................  63  89  54  88 /   5  10   0   0
Edgewood........................  59  89  51  88 /   0   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  90  49  89 /   0   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  59  86  52  85 /   5   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  62  89  54  89 /   5   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  62  90  56  90 /   5  10   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  67  95  64  95 /   0   5   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  63  86  61  87 /   0   5   0   0
Capulin.........................  57  84  51  84 /  50   0   0   0
Raton...........................  57  87  49  88 /  40   0   0   0
Springer........................  58  90  49  91 /  30   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  56  87  51  86 /  20   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  63  91  59  92 /  30  10   0   0
Roy.............................  60  89  54  91 /  30  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  65  98  59  99 /  20  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  63  94  61  95 /  10  10   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  65  97  62  99 /  10  10   5   0
Clovis..........................  66  97  66 100 /  10  10  10   0
Portales........................  66 101  66 102 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  65  99  63 101 /   5  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  71 107  69 109 /   5   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  67  98  64  99 /   0   5   0   0
Elk.............................  66  95  63  95 /   0   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ101-104>106-
109-120>125.

Wind Advisory from noon to 6 PM MDT Friday for NMZ215-227>229.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ238.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ238.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...16

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>