Severe Thunderstorm Warning 283, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
325 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Virga showers and gusty winds remain possible over central and
eastern New Mexico for the rest of the afternoon and for tomorrow
afternoon. Very hot, breezy, and mainly dry weather is expected
through the rest of the week with a chance of thunderstorms in far
northeastern New Mexico on Thursday. Some of these storms may become
strong to severe. Western and central parts of the state will
experience elevated to critical fire weather conditions through the
weekend. Critical fire weather conditions and winds are expected to
peak on Friday. Temperatures will heat up even more this weekend
with Roswell reaching 110 and Albuquerque potentially seeing it's
first 100 degree day of the year early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023

A batch of mostly dry showers crossed central New Mexico this
morning. While clearing has occurred from west to east, the
atmosphere has been a little slow destabilizing this afternoon but
there is a good crop of cumulus which has developed over the
southeast half of the state. Therefore can't rule out additional dry
showers with gusty winds over this area through the early evening.
Wednesday afternoon may also see a few buildups with gusty variable
winds over central New Mexico, and high temperatures will be a tad
warmer compared to this afternoon's. Consequently, Roswell will see
another day of near record heat on Wednesday, and the current Heat
Advisory remains in effect. Overnight lows will be within a few
degrees of normal for late June but cooler tonight with much less
cloud cover. Low level moisture is now forecast to seep a bit
farther westward into the eastern plains Wednesday night from the
Texas border. It looks to make the most progress in the northeast
part of the state where isolated showers and storms are possible
through the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Increasing moisture across the eastern plains thanks to convective
outflow from storm activity in Colorado could give rise to the
development of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening in
northeastern New Mexico. Storms are capable to becoming strong to
severe thanks to 0-6 km bulk shear values between 30 to 40 kts and
SBCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
look to be the main threats before these storms exit off to the east
into Texas late Thursday. Meanwhile, western and central NM will see
increasing southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph ahead of a shortwave over
California. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
possible.

Dry weather returns areawide on Friday with windy conditions as the
upper level pressure gradient tightens due to the aformentioned
trough passing to the north. Winds at 500 mb increase to 40-50 kts
in response. Deep layer mixing and near-record mixing heights will
tap into these winds and given the setup went on the high end of
guidence as a result. Very dry air in the form of PWATs less than
0.20 inches will influtrate the region from the northwest resulting
in a extended period of RHs below 10%. All these ingredients
together will result in critical to possibly extreme fire weather
conditions during the second half of Friday across northern and
central parts of the state (see the Fire Weather discussion).

The very dry air, with PWATs less than 0.20 inches, remains over the
region on Saturday with another day of RH values dipping into the
single digits for an extended period of time over most areas. The
strong ridge of high pressure over Mexico and Texas begins to build
north on Saturday, and this will keep conditions dry with lighter
winds at 500 mb of 30 to 40 kts. Deep daytime mixing will result in
afternoon breezy to windy conditions, but at speeds of 15 to 25 mph,
weaker compared to Friday. Some moisture could enter eastern NM late
Sunday into Monday behind a backdoor front, cooling temperatures a
touch. However, even with this, afternoon highs will rise to nearly
5 to 10 degrees above average come this weekend into early next week
as the ridge over Mexico and Texas continues building north into the
state. This could warrant Heat Advisories for the middle to lower
RGV and east central plains. Albuquerque could achieve it's first
100 degree day early next week, with high temperatures well into 90s
across the highlands of northern and western NM, as 500 mb heights
build to 594 to 596 dm. An Excessive Heat Warning might be needed
for Chaves County and the southeast plains this weekend into early
next week as Roswell heats up to around 110 degrees. Winds will also
be weaker early next week as the ridge moves overhead with lighter
upper level winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Southwest to west flow aloft. Mostly clear over nw NM. Transient
mid to high level moisture over NM producing isold-sct high based
and mostly dry showers as well as isold tstms with gusty variable
winds to around 45kt over central NM and into ern NM. Otherwise
lcl southwesterly gusts to around 35kt are expected. Winds and
convection to diminish after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Tue Jun 20 2023

...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREME CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY...

Near to above average temperatures, breezy to windy, very dry and
unstable conditions are expected through this week and into early
next week. Fair to poor humidity recoveries continue across western
and central New Mexico while some low level moisture sloshes into
the east Wednesday night and moreso Thursday night but retreats
Friday. Elevated to critical conditions are possible Wednesday and
Thursday across much of the region. Widespread critical to extreme
fire weather conditions forecast Friday into Saturday, when 8 to 15
hours of single digit relative humidity is widespread over western
and central New Mexico. A few virga showers are possible for the
rest of today and again Wednesday over central into eastern New
Mexico with isolated wetter but potentially strong storms over
northeast New Mexico Thursday.

An upper ridge may become an even more dominant feature early to mid
next week across New Mexico. Low level moisture may seep back into
the northeast section of the state Sunday night and again Monday
night but may only result in a few localized wetting storms. Poor
overnight humidity recovery persist over western and central New
Mexico, where single digit minimum humidity will be widespread
Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  90  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  40  85  44  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  47  85  51  87 /   0   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  44  87  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  44  84  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  44  89  48  90 /   0   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  49  86  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  57  89  57  90 /   5   5   0   5
Datil...........................  50  84  52  86 /   0   5   0   0
Reserve.........................  51  88  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  61  93  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  40  80  44  80 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  53  86  56  86 /   5  10  10  10
Pecos...........................  53  86  56  86 /   5  10   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  43  83  47  81 /   0   5   0  10
Red River.......................  38  77  42  76 /   0   5   5  20
Angel Fire......................  35  77  39  77 /   0  10   5  20
Taos............................  43  86  48  86 /   0   5   0  10
Mora............................  47  84  50  83 /   5  10   0  20
Espanola........................  47  90  51  93 /   0   5   5   5
Santa Fe........................  53  86  56  87 /   5  10   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  52  89  55  90 /   5  10   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  91  64  93 /   5  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  92  64  95 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  54  94  58  97 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  93  62  95 /   0   5   0   0
Belen...........................  61  97  62  98 /   0   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  57  93  60  96 /   0  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  57  95  59  97 /   0   5   0   0
Corrales........................  59  93  61  96 /   0  10   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  59  96  61  97 /   0   5   0   0
Placitas........................  59  90  61  92 /   0  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  60  92  62  94 /   0  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  64  99  64 100 /   0   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  85  57  86 /   5  10   0   5
Tijeras.........................  57  88  59  89 /   5  10   0   5
Edgewood........................  54  88  57  89 /   5  10   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  90  53  90 /   5  10   0   5
Clines Corners..................  55  86  55  86 /  10  10   0   5
Mountainair.....................  57  89  58  90 /   5  10   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  58  91  59  91 /   5   5   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  66  95  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  62  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   5
Capulin.........................  55  86  56  78 /   0   5  10  40
Raton...........................  52  89  55  83 /   0   0  10  30
Springer........................  52  89  54  87 /   0   5   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  52  88  54  86 /   5  10   0  20
Clayton.........................  62  92  61  84 /   0   0  20  30
Roy.............................  57  91  57  85 /   5   5   5  20
Conchas.........................  62  96  61  95 /   5   5   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  64  97  62  94 /   0   5   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  64  99  63  99 /  10   0   5  10
Clovis..........................  65  99  63  95 /   5   0  10  10
Portales........................  66 101  64  98 /   5   0  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  66 101  64  99 /   5   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  72 108  70 107 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  67  98  67  98 /   0   5   0  10
Elk.............................  64  94  65  95 /   0   5   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ123.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ238.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ238.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...99

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