Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1142 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

The overall theme for the next week will be hot, dry, and breezy
across much of the region. Today will be the windiest day with
gusts of 40 to 50 mph common around the higher terrain and the
nearby highlands. Critical fire weather will be a big concern with
these winds as very dry conditions will be in place over a large
part of the area. A couple showers and storms are still possible
today across northern NM with perhaps a strong storm near the CO
border with northeast NM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Axis of a baggy trough currently over western AZ will continue
pushing eastward today. This will bring strengthening westerly flow
aloft over northern and central NM, which in combination with deep
layer mixing will result in gusty afternoon sfc winds. A modest 300
mb jet max of 90 kts will position itself from extreme southwestern
NM to the to southern border of Colfax Co, which will allow these
amplified winds to favor said corridor. Gusts of 35 to 45 knots will
be commonplace throughout the south central mts and central
highlands and as such, will be continuing the already issued Wind
Advisory, with the addition of the northeast highlands. Downsloping
will help to aid in adiabatic compression across a bulk of the area,
bringing temperatures up a degree or two. Given the prevailing
pattern and continued dry west and southwesterly flow, did trend
slightly above guidance for high temperatures today and tomorrow. As
the trough axis passes through central NM, subtle pertubations aloft
will work to provide the extra lift needed for another round of
isolated to scattered afternoon convection across extreme northern
NM. Given lackluster PWATs of under 0.5 in, do expect that storms
will trend drier with gusty and erratic downburst winds. Storms and
stronger winds will diminish after sunset. Weak high pressure will
build over the state on Sunday, allowing for winds to slacken.
Breezy conditions will still exist across portions of western NM in
the afternoon. The dry westerly flow aloft will work to shutdown any
and all convective dreams across the state, leaving sunny skies and
warm temperatures. The rising pressure heights will allow daytime
highs to climb a few to as many as 10 deg areawide compared to
Saturday's readings. This will bring many locales above seasonal
averages for the first time in over two weeks.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

The medium range forecast begins Sunday night with significantly
warmer low temps compared to the first two-thirds of June. Above
normal morning temps will climb quickly thru late morning as very
dry and gusty southwest flow sets up over the region. A few areas
may see Wind Advisory gusts near 45 mph around the high terrain with
widespread highs in the 90s and low 100s. A very thin layer of mid
level moisture streaming northeast over the state may allow late day
virga showers to develop btwn the Cont Dvd and central mt chain.
Tuesday will be a near repeat of Monday with slightly less wind and
even warmer temps. Drier mid levels will likely mitigate clouds and
virga development so mostly sunny skies are expected.

Moisture may begin trickling back into eastern NM by Wednesday as
winds turn more easterly with surface high pressure building into
east TX. A couple high-based showers are possible near the TX
state line. Otherwise, very hot and dry conditions will persist
over the rest of the area with breezy southwest winds. Moisture
will attempt to trickle even farther west Wednesday night and
Thursday with greater coverage of clouds and perhaps some showers
and storms over eastern NM thru Friday. Forecast confidence is
low on just how much moisture makes it into the area and this will
affect high temps across the east Thursday and Friday. Central
and western areas will remain hot and dry with breezy southwest
winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace today although
MVFR ceilings in the far northeast may hold on for another hour or
two. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are likely in
northern NM near the CO border this afternoon. A few lightning
strikes and gusty outflow winds are the main threats with these
storms, however a strong to severe storm or two is possible in the
far northeast. A southwest to westerly breeze will prevail today
with gusts generally 25-35 knots although a few gusts may reach as
high as 45 knots along and immediately east of the central
mountain chain. Winds weaken after sunset and become light and
variable overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

A dry, hot, windy, and unstable airmass remains over northern and
central New Mexico today. An incoming upper level trough will allow
for strengthening westerly flow aloft and deep layer mixing will
bring gusty west winds to surface this afternoon. This in the
presence of low double digit to single digit humidity will create
critical fire weather conditions across much of central New Mexico
and portions of northern New Mexico this afternoon. As such, did
continue the Red Flag Warning for today. Closer to the CO border, a
passing upper level disturbance will give rise to isolated to
scattered afternoon storms. Given modest moisture, wetting
footprints will be neglible, and storms will run the risk of dry
lightning and sudden downburst winds.

Upper level high pressure begins to build on Sunday, which will work
to slacken winds across the area, but low humidity will remain
areawide. The exception to this rule will be across portions of
western New Mexico, where breezy conditions will create localized
critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon. Elevated to
critical fire weather conditions will be possible each day
throughout the work week next week. Southwest flow aloft will
strengthen on Monday, bringing breezy to locally windy surface winds
alongside minimum relative humidity in the teens for another day of
critical fire weather potential. Moisture potential increases in
eastern New Mexico mid to late next week. Ventilation will remain
majority excellent during the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  80  49  89  54 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  74  40  81  45 /  30   0   0   0
Cuba............................  76  45  83  50 /  10   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  80  44  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  76  43  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  81  42  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  82  46  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  85  52  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  81  47  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  86  42  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  92  53  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  67  39  75  43 /  40   0   5   0
Los Alamos......................  75  52  81  57 /  20   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  77  49  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  70  39  77  46 /  30   0   5   0
Red River.......................  66  37  73  42 /  30   5  10   0
Angel Fire......................  67  34  73  40 /  20  10   5   0
Taos............................  76  40  82  46 /  20   0   0   0
Mora............................  73  44  80  50 /  10  10   0   0
Espanola........................  83  49  89  53 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  78  52  83  56 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  81  48  85  54 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  85  59  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  57  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  89  55  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  87  56  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  92  53  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  88  54  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  89  51  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  88  55  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  90  52  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  84  56  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  86  56  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  95  57  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  81  53  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  80  50  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  45  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  78  48  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  84  51  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  85  51  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  91  59  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  83  54  83  59 /   0   0  10   0
Capulin.........................  74  46  80  53 /  30  10  10   0
Raton...........................  77  45  84  51 /  20  10   5   0
Springer........................  82  46  88  52 /  10  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  79  47  85  54 /   5   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  82  52  87  59 /  20  10   5   0
Roy.............................  81  50  87  56 /   5  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  91  55  95  62 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  88  56  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  90  55  93  63 /   0   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  92  56  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  94  58  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  93  58  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 102  63 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  93  58  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  90  56  90  61 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ105-106-109-
123>126.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223-226-229.

&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...16