Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
201 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023

An active weather pattern will continue over the region through the
weekend and early next week with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Very welcome rainfall amounts between one-quarter and
one-half inch are likely in many areas. Heavier amounts over 1 inch
are also likely with the heavier showers and storms. Locations that
see multiple rounds of heavy rain may experience flooding, including
burn scars, low lying flood prone areas, and urban drainages.  Drier
air will begin moving into central and western NM by Tuesday with a
return to much warmer temperatures, breezier southwest winds, and
lower humidity. Eastern NM may continue to experience daily rounds
of showers and storms through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023

The 12Z KABQ sounding showed a PWAT of 0.84", which is good for a
calendar day record as our anomalously moist atmosphere persists.
The combination of a backdoor front and instability from daytime
heating is resulting in scattered/numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms early this afternoon, but lightning activity is
forecast to increase through the late afternoon hours across
central/western NM. A backdoor front is making westward progress
through the central mountain chain and is resulting in gusty east
canyon/gap winds into the Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys. The
backdoor front will help to force/invigorate convection west of the
RGV this afternoon/evening, which should gradually work back toward
the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros this evening. A locally heavy
rainfall threat persists, with flash flooding possible on area burn
scars especially given recent saturating rains. Similar overall
setup Saturday, but convection may get a later start after a fairly
stable morning behind the backdoor front. The focus for afternoon
storms will continue along and west of the central mountain chain as
the eastern plains will be very slow to destabilize. A flash flood
threat will continue on area burn scars and another watch may be
necessary. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will remain below normal
Saturday with plenty of cloud cover and potential rain-cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023

By Sunday, an ill-defined trough axis is progged to stretch from
west central NM northeastward across northern NM to the Front Range.
Abundant moisture will still be firmly entrenched over the region
with PW values btwn the 75th and 90th percentile at KABQ. Remnant
boundaries from convection on Saturday along with any lingering mid
level circulations will provide the focus for additional SHRA/TS.
Locally heavy rainfall will continue, especially around the higher
terrain and nearby highlands.

Changes are expected to begin by Monday as flow aloft becomes more
westerly and drier air filters into western NM. The coverage of
showers and storms with heavy rainfall will be greatest along and
east of the central mt chain. Model instability along the boundary
of the two airmasses is rather impressive however greater shear is
focused more over west TX. A couple strong storms are possible as is
often the case when mid level dry air begins scouring moisture from
the region. An upper level ridge is shown building over central NM
by Tuesday with a more notable progression of drier air across most
of NM. This will help trend temps closer to normal for mid to late
May with lower humidity and breezier southwest winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM MDT Fri May 19 2023

A mixed bag of VFR to MVFR conditions prevail across northern and
central NM with numerous showers, isolated thunderstorms and areas
of mountain obscurations. MVFR conditions are likely in/near
showers and storms today, but short-lived IFR conditions are
possible. A gusty east canyon wind will develop later this
afternoon or evening at KABQ, but speeds are forecast to remain
below Aviation Weather Warning threshold at this time.
Deterioration is forecast overnight, along with widespread
mountain obscurations. KSAF, KROW and KLVS are forecast to
deteriorate to IFR overnight, with slow to no improvement Saturday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023

An anomalously moist atmosphere with above normal humidity will
persist through the weekend and into early next week with daily
rounds of wetting storms that could bring flash flooding to area
burn scars. The pattern will transition thereafter to a more normal
springtime regime, with the emergence of hot, dry and unstable
conditions as an upper level trough/low drops south along the west
coast and turns inland late week. Increasing southwest flow aloft
will shift east over NM in advance of the upper level trough/low and
may bring critical fire weather conditions for Thu/Fri. Dryline
thunderstorms are possible Thu/Fri as well closer to the TX border.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  73  50  77 /  60  60  30  40
Dulce...........................  41  66  40  71 /  80  70  40  70
Cuba............................  44  67  45  70 /  80  50  50  60
Gallup..........................  44  72  43  74 /  60  50  30  50
El Morro........................  43  68  43  69 /  60  70  40  60
Grants..........................  43  70  41  72 /  70  60  30  60
Quemado.........................  45  71  45  71 /  50  60  30  60
Magdalena.......................  49  69  49  70 /  80  80  50  60
Datil...........................  45  66  46  69 /  70  70  40  60
Reserve.........................  45  75  42  76 /  30  50  30  50
Glenwood........................  51  79  52  80 /  20  40  30  40
Chama...........................  38  61  37  65 /  80  70  50  80
Los Alamos......................  48  66  48  69 /  70  50  30  70
Pecos...........................  46  65  46  69 /  80  50  20  70
Cerro/Questa....................  45  62  45  65 /  60  70  20  80
Red River.......................  39  56  39  57 /  70  70  30  90
Angel Fire......................  40  61  37  62 /  70  60  20  80
Taos............................  44  68  42  71 /  60  50  20  70
Mora............................  44  64  42  66 /  80  40  20  80
Espanola........................  51  73  49  75 /  60  40  20  60
Santa Fe........................  48  67  49  70 /  80  50  30  70
Santa Fe Airport................  48  70  48  73 /  70  40  30  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  73  55  76 /  80  50  30  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  75  54  78 /  80  40  30  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  76  53  80 /  80  40  30  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  74  54  78 /  70  40  30  50
Belen...........................  54  76  52  79 /  80  50  40  50
Bernalillo......................  53  76  54  78 /  80  40  30  50
Bosque Farms....................  53  76  51  80 /  80  50  40  50
Corrales........................  54  75  54  78 /  80  40  30  50
Los Lunas.......................  54  76  52  79 /  80  50  40  50
Placitas........................  52  72  53  75 /  80  40  30  60
Rio Rancho......................  53  74  54  77 /  70  40  30  50
Socorro.........................  53  78  53  80 /  60  60  50  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  47  66  48  70 /  80  50  30  60
Tijeras.........................  50  69  49  73 /  80  50  30  50
Edgewood........................  46  68  45  72 /  70  40  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  69  43  74 /  60  40  30  50
Clines Corners..................  45  66  44  69 /  70  30  30  50
Mountainair.....................  47  68  46  72 /  80  60  30  50
Gran Quivira....................  47  69  46  73 /  80  60  30  50
Carrizozo.......................  52  72  53  77 /  50  50  40  50
Ruidoso.........................  45  63  46  68 /  60  60  40  60
Capulin.........................  43  66  42  68 /  20  20  20  70
Raton...........................  45  70  44  72 /  40  30  20  70
Springer........................  47  72  45  74 /  50  20  10  70
Las Vegas.......................  45  66  45  70 /  60  30  10  70
Clayton.........................  48  72  48  75 /  10  10  10  60
Roy.............................  48  68  48  73 /  30  20  10  70
Conchas.........................  53  75  52  81 /  30  10  10  60
Santa Rosa......................  52  70  51  78 /  30  10  10  50
Tucumcari.......................  51  76  52  81 /  20  10  10  50
Clovis..........................  53  73  53  78 /  20  10  10  40
Portales........................  53  74  52  80 /  20  10  10  40
Fort Sumner.....................  53  73  53  80 /  30  10  10  50
Roswell.........................  59  74  58  83 /  60  30  10  50
Picacho.........................  51  67  50  75 /  70  40  20  60
Elk.............................  47  64  47  72 /  70  50  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ211-214-215-226.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...11

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
417 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023

NMZ236-238-192245-
Chaves County Plains-Roosevelt County-
417 PM MDT Fri May 19 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
ROOSEVELT AND NORTHEASTERN CHAVES COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 417 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elida, or 27 miles southwest of Portales, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elida, Milnesand and Kenna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3367 10382 3395 10393 3419 10346 3361 10328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 274DEG 23KT 3387 10365

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

12

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