Red Flag Warning 61, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1129 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 123 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023

The weather pattern will quickly turn windy today and Thursday as
a Pacific storm system moves inland and toward the northern
Rockies. While New Mexico will stay mostly dry, gusty conditions
will develop today with even stronger winds expected Thursday as a
cold front overtakes the state. The windiest areas today will be
the northern and central mountains and highlands where occasional
gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible, and on Thursday the focus
will shift to the central mountains and nearby highlands and high
plains just to the east. Winds will slowly settle down Thursday
night, but much colder air will seep in with the first freeze of
the fall season arriving for many lower elevation locations within
western and northern New Mexico. After below normal temperatures
on Friday, a warmer, calmer and dry pattern will set up into early
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 123 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Major changes in the weather pattern begin today, ending the stretch
of pleasant and calm early Fall weather. The leading edge of a 140kt
H3 jetmax associated with a 541dm H5 closed low centered just
offshore of the Olympic Peninsula is pushing into central NV and the
Great Basin region this morning. Southwesterly winds will begin to
increase in response to vertical mixing tapping into some of these
stronger winds aloft. Peak gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible
over western and northern mountain peaks and along the Continental
Divide near I-40. Wind speeds came up a tad for the northern Sangre
de Cristo Mountains and Sandia/Manzano Mountains resulting in an
expansion of the Wind Advisory today to these zones. Windy weather
will extend out over the eastern plains of the forecast area as well
aided by a modest lee surface low over eastern CO. While most areas
will see dry and windy conditions today, a few stray light showers
could reach south from the CO San Juans over the far northern Tusas
Mountains near Chama. Otherwise, the other big sensible weather
change will be downslope compressional warming helping to raise
today's highs to near 90F for portions of the eastern plains
including Tucumcari and Roswell.

The main H5 closed low tracks eastward along the CO/WY border
tonight into Thursday morning with the associated jetmax over
northern NM. While winds look to decouple at lower elevation and
valley areas, strong westerly winds will remain at mountain tops of
northern NM. Mountain wave activity could also allow for erratic
strong wind gusts to crash at sporadic areas along the eastern
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains as well. Given this
potential, have elected to bring back the start time of Thursday's
High Wind Watch for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to 3am Thursday
morning. While at a lower confidence given it's location south of
the main jet core, the High Wind Watch at the same start time was
also expanded to the south-central mountains for the potential of
mountain wave activity. These winds are expected to reach back down
to lower elevation areas Thursday afternoon, aided both by mixing
and subsidence behind a potent Pacific cold front surging west to
east across northern and central NM. Many areas along and east of
the Rio Grande Valley will likely see at least a Wind Advisory for
Thursday afternoon. Strong crosswinds on area highways combined with
blowing dust will be the main hazards for travelers Thursday.
Travelers from out of state visiting for annual festivities and the
annular eclipse will need to be aware of erratic and strong winds,
especially near varying terrain.

A much drier and cooler airmass surges in behind the cold front,
dropping high temperatures back 10F-20F most areas relative to
Wednesday's forecast highs. Dewpoints also fall back considerably
into the teens and single-digits. With winds calming, skies
clearing, and very dry conditions, this will set the stage for many
areas to see their first freeze of the season for western, central,
and northern NM Thursday night heading into the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 123 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023

The Pacific front will have swept across NM by early Thursday
evening, and the backdoor segment of the front will then plunge
southward into the eastern plains overnight. The flow aloft will
decrease in speed overnight, but it will be at a slow rate with
700 mb winds still advertising a speed max near and across the
eastern I-40 corridor into the early morning hours. As cold air
advection continues overnight, dewpoints will be drying into the
single digits and teens (F), and chilly temperatures and a
potential first freeze for much of western and northern NM still
looks likely. It was decided to hold off on a Freeze Watch for
now, just to keep the non-precipitation statements more legible
and simplified, but a Watch is certainly warranted through Friday
morning.

Much lighter zonal flow aloft will prevail on Friday with a subtle
ridge approaching eastern UT and eastern AZ late in the afternoon.
Some thin cirrus clouds will move in, and high temperatures will
remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal in most zones (the exception
will be southwestern areas). The weak ridge will pass unnoticed
Friday night into Saturday with quasi-zonal flow prevailing in its
wake. Surface winds will finally veer southerly in the plains
Saturday with other areas generally hosting light southwesterly
breezes. A trailing swath of high cirrus still looks to cross NM
early Saturday during the annular eclipse.

A ridge will amplify over the eastern Pacific Sunday through
Tuesday of next week, leaving subdued northwesterly flow over NM.
Pressure heights and temperatures will rise through this time with
all areas reaching back to, if not 5 to 10 degrees above, normal.
The ridge looks to get pushed farther west on Wednesday as a
trough drops over the central Rockies and potentially clips
northern NM. This feature would offer the next significant changes
in wind and transient precipitation Wednesday and perhaps
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1009 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period with increasing and strong westerly flow and a deepening
lee side trough. Southwest wind gusts to between 35-40kts are
possible at KLVS and KGUP today. There is some potential for
mountain wave development overnight as stronger winds aloft
interact with the peaks of the western and northern mountains. Low
level wind shear will likely develop overnight at KLVS. Stronger
winds will pick up Thursday morning both behind and ahead of a
Pacific cold front. Winds will continue to ramp up after the end
of the TAF period Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL,
EASTERN, AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...

Southwest winds will strengthen today in response to an approaching
Pacific storm system that is expected to track north of the region
today through Thursday. While windy conditions will be present,
minimum humidities are still forecast to stay near twenty percent
this afternoon except for a few isolated drier locations. Thursday
will see the strongest wind potential with many areas seeing peak
gusts of 30 to 45 mph. The strongest gusts upwards of 50 to 60 mph
will focus along and immediately east of the central mountain chain.
Despite cooler temperatures surging in behind a Pacific cold front,
minimum humidities will still fall to below fifteen percent allowing
for widespread critical fire weather conditions from the
Sandia/Manzano Mountains eastward to the TX border, and the
Northeast Highlands and Plains zone. The limiting factor will be
ERCs, but given the influx of activities and travelers to the area,
have elected to err on the side of caution with the issuance of the
Fire Weather Watch. Fire Weather highlights may be expanded to
include the Middle Rio Grande Valley zone in upcoming forecast
packages where conditions were more marginal. Much cooler weather
fills into the area Thursday night and Friday, combined with much
lower dewpoints. A Fall chill will certainly be present most areas
Friday morning where many central, western and norther areas could
see their first freeze of the season. Conditions warm up with
relatively calm weather this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  38  61  31 /   5   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  70  27  58  23 /  10  20   0   0
Cuba............................  72  36  57  28 /   0   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  74  32  63  21 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  72  36  61  21 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  76  36  65  24 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  76  38  64  24 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  78  45  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  74  42  65  27 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  76  41  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  81  51  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  62  27  52  23 /  10  10   0   0
Los Alamos......................  70  42  58  35 /   0   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  73  44  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  66  27  55  22 /   5  10   0   0
Red River.......................  59  28  50  22 /   5  10   0   0
Angel Fire......................  62  27  51  14 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  71  35  58  25 /   5  10   0   0
Mora............................  70  38  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  77  42  66  33 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  72  44  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  76  43  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  81  50  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  49  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  48  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  50  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  86  47  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  83  48  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  84  46  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  83  49  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  85  48  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  80  48  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  82  50  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  87  49  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  46  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  77  47  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  77  42  64  31 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  79  42  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  77  43  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  78  45  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  79  45  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  80  54  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  74  50  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  77  40  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  78  42  63  31 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  82  42  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  79  45  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  83  50  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  82  47  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  91  53  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  89  52  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  91  54  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  87  54  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  89  55  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  89  53  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  91  59  89  48 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  83  55  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  79  55  76  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for NMZ104-123>126.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ202-205-206-210-
213-221.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
NMZ213>215-226.

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for NMZ212-223-229-233.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11