Red Flag Warning 52, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1201 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Updated Zone Forecast to increase coverage of sprinkles and dry
thunderstorms over central areas late this afternoon and evening,
as well as the coverage of thunderstorms along the eastern border
of the forecast area, in accordance with recent model and
satellite trends. Water vapor loop shows elevated moisture working
its way over the forecast area, and there is now a marginal risk
of severe thunderstorms across far eastern areas.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 117 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Hot, dry and breezy conditions will persist through the work
week, with daily rounds of isolated showers and storms that will
produce little to no rainfall and instead favor strong and erratic
wind gusts. The hottest conditions will be across the southeast
plains where highs will hit well over 100 degrees each day.
Temperatures will trend down some and moisture will trend up over
the weekend, bringing chances for showers and storms to central
and eastern portions of the state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Center of the H5 high pressure will wander northward across the
Chihuahuan Desert towards West TX today, elongating in the process.
Slight weakening is expected as it slowly makes its trek, going from
a 597 dam to 595 dam. This, unfortunately, won't do much to offer
relief from the heat as pressure heights simply modulate over
northern and central NM. What relief will be seen will be from a
weak slug of mid-level moisture coming up from the Baja, allowing
for more cloud cover this afternoon, especially along the spine of
the RGV. This will help to keep locales such as the ABQ metro out of
Heat Advisory range. Meanwhile, high temperatures near and beyond
the century mark will once again be commonplace in the eastern
plains. Roswell is forecast to hit a high temperature near 110F,
continuing the now 8-day streak of highs over 105F. This will break
the standing records set in 2020 and 1957. A ninth day of over 105F
is expected Tuesday, with high temperatures encroaching near-record.

A weak upper low moves into the PacNW early Tuesday morning,
allowing the sinusoidal pattern over the CONUS to amplify. The H5
high center moves into central TX on Tuesday, which will allow for a
reduction of heights for much of northern and central NM. An
increase in cloud cover will help to temper daytime highs, with the
exception of the east central and southeast plains where
temperatures above 100F are still expected to prevail. Southwest
winds will increase due to the strengthening H5 winds, especially
over the western portion of the CWA, along with the northern mts.
The additional mid-level moisture will allow a few storms to come to
fruition on Tuesday, though with such poor low-level moisture,
showers and storms that do develop will likely be dry in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 117 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

A round of dry convection will persist into the evening hours
Tuesday across central and western NM, with strong/erratic wind
gusts likely. A similar setup on Wednesday with the upper high to
the southeast over TX and a Pacific trough/low making slow
eastward progress from the Great Basin toward the central/southern
Rockies. Another round of dry convection is forecast Wednesday
afternoon/evening, favoring strong/erratic wind gusts over
measurable rainfall. Pressure heights will trend down from mid to
late week as the Pacific trough makes slow progress from the
southern Rockies out into the plains, which will take the edge off
of the heat and allow for low level moisture advection into
eastern NM both from the Gulf and from the north late Friday via
convective outflow. This will stage moisture for a slow westward
creep across the area next weekend as a new upper high builds over
SoCal and the Desert Southwest. Chances for showers and storms
will trend up over the weekend as a result, generally focusing
along and east of the central mountain chain. Flash flooding on
burn scars may return as a threat by Sunday. Roswell is forecast
to end the long stretch of 100 plus degree days on Sunday, which
will put the streak at 17 days and be the 3rd longest stretch on
record.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Elevated moisture will continue to work its way northeastward
across the forecast area today and Tuesday with daily rounds of
gusty virga showers and mainly dry thunderstorms along and east of
the continental divide during the afternoon and evening. Dry
microbursts will be capable of erratic wind gusts over 45 kt in
stronger downbursts both days. Tonight, mesoscale models favor
northwest areas for lingering rain showers. Like this morning,
southeast winds look to bring low clouds with MVFR conditions over
the Caprock Region late tonight and early Tuesday morning. These
could make it as far north as KTCC, but confidence is low at this
time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 117 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

Hot, dry, and unstable weather to continue through the next 7 days
for most areas. An influx of moisture will bring some relief to the
abysmal RH values seen the last few days, with min RH increasing a
few to several percent compared to yesterday. Breezy west to west-
southwest winds will take hold across western New Mexico and the
northern mountains in the afternoon. As such, did continue the Red
Flag Warning as issued by the previous shift. Winds will strengthen
further on Tuesday areawide and poor min RH will continue,
especially across the west, creating critical fire weather
conditions. More localized and shorter duration critical fire
weather conditions will exist along portions of the northeast and
central highlands. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible in the northern mountains and given the poor low
level moisture, will be drier in nature. This will produce the risk
of sudden and erratic downburst winds, along with frequent
lightning. The trend for a mix both dry and wet storms will continue
each day through Friday. A moist backdoor front will descend into
the eastern plains Friday, allowing for an increased possibility of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  60  95  55 /   0  10  10   0
Dulce...........................  88  51  87  45 /   5  20  20  10
Cuba............................  89  59  88  54 /  10  10  20   5
Gallup..........................  92  53  91  51 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  89  55  88  52 /   5  10   5   0
Grants..........................  93  57  93  51 /  10  10  10   5
Quemado.........................  91  58  91  56 /   5   5   5   0
Magdalena.......................  92  65  92  63 /  10  10  20  10
Datil...........................  90  59  89  57 /  10   5  10   0
Reserve.........................  95  55  94  52 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  99  69  98  66 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  82  49  81  46 /   0  20  20  10
Los Alamos......................  89  64  87  60 /  10  20  30  20
Pecos...........................  89  62  88  59 /  10  10  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  83  55  82  50 /  10  10  20  10
Red River.......................  77  48  76  47 /  10  10  20  10
Angel Fire......................  80  46  79  44 /  10  10  20  10
Taos............................  89  55  88  49 /  10  10  20  10
Mora............................  87  57  85  54 /  10  10  30  10
Espanola........................  95  62  94  57 /  10  10  20  10
Santa Fe........................  89  64  87  61 /  10  10  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  92  62  91  58 /  10  10  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  69  94  67 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  68  95  66 /  10  10  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  67  98  64 /  10  10  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  68  95  65 /  10  10  10   5
Belen........................... 101  65  98  62 /  10  10  10   5
Bernalillo......................  98  67  97  64 /  10  10  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  99  65  98  61 /  10  10  10   5
Corrales........................  98  68  97  65 /  10  10  10   5
Los Lunas....................... 100  65  98  62 /  10  10  10   5
Placitas........................  94  68  93  65 /  10  10  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  98  67  96  64 /  10  10  10   5
Socorro......................... 101  70 101  67 /  10  10  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  64  89  61 /  10  10  20  10
Tijeras.........................  92  64  92  62 /  10  10  20  10
Edgewood........................  92  61  92  59 /  10  10  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  58  94  55 /  10  10  20  10
Clines Corners..................  90  61  90  58 /  10  10  10  20
Mountainair.....................  93  62  93  60 /  10  10  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  94  63  94  61 /   5  10  10  20
Carrizozo.......................  98  70  98  68 /   0   5   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  90  66  90  63 /   5   5   5  10
Capulin.........................  88  61  87  58 /   5  10  20  10
Raton...........................  92  60  90  56 /   0  10  10  10
Springer........................  95  62  93  57 /   5  10  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  91  61  91  57 /  10  10  20  10
Clayton.........................  91  68  95  67 /  10  20  10  10
Roy.............................  92  64  93  61 /   5  10  10  10
Conchas......................... 102  68 102  66 /   5  10  10  20
Santa Rosa...................... 100  67  98  65 /   5  10  10  20
Tucumcari....................... 100  69 102  68 /  10  10   0  10
Clovis..........................  98  70 102  69 /  20  20   0  10
Portales........................ 101  71 105  70 /  20  20   0   5
Fort Sumner..................... 102  69 103  68 /   5  10   5  10
Roswell......................... 109  75 111  73 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho......................... 101  69 101  66 /   5   0   5   5
Elk.............................  98  67  98  65 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-120-
121.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NMZ101-105-120.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238-240.

Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ238.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ240.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44