Red Flag Warning 45, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1127 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms daily through
Saturday near the Colorado border. Across central and southern
areas, daily rounds of breezy (to at times windy) conditions are
expected with fire weather concerns today through Tuesday of next
week. Hot temperatures will also develop next week with a
potentially extended string of days in the low to mid 90s likely
to begin Albuquerque on Sunday, and a string of days reaching over
104 degrees in Roswell starting Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023

The remnants of an eastern Pacific low are now crossing northern NM
as an open shortwave trough with some early morning virga and light
showers and storms ongoing over northern parts of the state,
particularly in northeastern areas. This shortwave is moving a bit
ahead of schedule, as is the mid to upper level speed max associated
with it. This should have implications on the surface wind speeds
this afternoon, shoving higher speeds a bit farther east, and the
central mountains and highlands into east central plains will
consequently observe the highest gusts of 30 to 35 mph today,
perhaps locally higher to 40 mph in the Sacramento mountains. As for
low level moisture, it is currently trying to infiltrate eastern NM
with a return flow off of the Gulf of Mexico attempting to
establish, but the westerlies should develop and scour most of this
out by early afternoon. An area to watch will be far northeastern
Union county where 40’s to low 50’s dewpoints may hang on enough for
the shortwave trough to exploit early this afternoon. A couple of
strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out here, as healthy bulk
shear would be juxtaposed in this far northeast corner of the state.
The remainder of far northern NM could also see copious high-based
cumulus that could turn to virga or perhaps a few sprinkles. Today’s
high temperatures will be very close to yesterday’s readings.

The next eastern Pacific low will move inland tonight into Friday,
and it looks like it will eventually attempt to merge with another
shortwave trailing a northern Rockies low. As far as NM is
concerned, weak perturbations will precede the Pacific wave along
with moderate west southwest flow (25-35 kt at 700 mb) on Friday.
This will keep warm, mostly dry and breezy to windy conditions going
for much of the forecast area. There will be more mid level
moisture, and an afternoon blend of high-based cumulus and
altocu/stratus could yield more widespread virga and sprinkles. The
exception to this generalization will be in northeastern NM again
where southeasterly surface winds will keep high enough dewpoints
for stray strong storms, once again near the CO border and mainly in
eastern Colfax and Union counties. Any high temperature changes
between today and Friday should be mostly negligible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Models are in good agreement now that an upper level trough will
pass eastward over the central Rockies on Saturday triggering
isolated showers and thunderstorms over northern parts of the
forecast area, except for scattered activity around Raton Pass.
Moisture will be limited with the system, so wetting footprints
should be pretty small in general, and some thunderstorms will
be capable of dry microburst wind gusts to 50 mph, and potentially
even 60 mph, with blowing dust and little or no rain. Strong west
winds will develop across much of the forecast area on Saturday
with gusts generally varying from 35 to 50 mph, and a risk of
widespread critical fire weather conditions south of a line from
Gallup to Clayton. Further, the strong winds will shift out of the
northwest with a Pacific cold front as the day progresses on
Saturday. The cold front should drop high temperatures a few to
around 5 degrees over central and northern areas compared to
Friday, increasing our confidence that Albuquerque's first day >=
90 F of the season won't occur until Sunday.

Dry weather and hot temperatures will develop this weekend and
next week as a broad high pressure system gradually moves
northward over northern Mexico and southern Texas. A ridge of high
pressure is forecast to build northward from this high pressure
system and over NM on Sunday most likely bringing Albuquerque its
first >= 90 F day of the season. A string of days >= 90 F are then
forecast in the state's largest city for the foreseeable future.
In addition, an string of days >= 105 F is forecast to begin in
Roswell on Monday, then continue through at least Wednesday, and
potentially through the end of the week. With the upper high south
of NM, and disturbances continuing to rotate through a longwave
trough over the northwest US, southwest flow aloft looks to remain
swift over the forecast area through the first half of the coming
week with at least locally breezy conditions and fire weather
concerns daily Sunday through Tuesday. After Saturday, the most
widespread wind and fire weather concerns look to occur on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist. Gusty westerly
winds this afternoon may be enhanced by showers and storms across
far northern NM, but are not expected to impact TAF sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

Winds are expected to increase today across the forecast area with
gusts of 25 to 35 mph being common, especially along the central
mountains, central highlands and into the east central plains. Low
dewpoints and consequently critical humidity values will also be
located here with Red Flag conditions expected. Wind speeds are on
the lower side of criteria, but high instability (widespread Haines
values of 6) will plague these areas. Confidence is lower that
southwestern and central (Rio Grande valley) areas will convincingly
meet the wind criteria, as winds do not appear as strong there, but
will leave the Warning intact there for now.

For Friday, windy conditions do appear to spread more into western
and central NM, creating another day of widespread elevated to
marginally critical conditions, as low humidity and high Haines will
remain in place. A Fire Weather Watch is being issued for Friday for
southwestern, west central, central, and the northeast highlands
zones where winds appear to be strongest with gusts of 35 mph.

The threat for elevated to critical fire weather will continue
through the weekend and early next week as periodic disturbances
aloft pass over the area, raising wind speeds. Wetting rainfall
potential will also remain low, aside from a few stray storms in far
northeastern NM. For Saturday, the critical fire weather threat
could shift toward central and eastern zones and amplify with wind
speeds strengthening more (gusts of 40 to 50 mph). Wind speeds may
relax some on Sunday as a brief ridge of high pressure builds, but
additional incoming energy will cause winds to strengthen again
Monday and Tuesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  84  51  81  49 /  10  10  20   5
Dulce...........................  76  41  76  41 /  10  10  20   5
Cuba............................  79  46  80  44 /  10   5  10   0
Gallup..........................  80  42  79  41 /   5   5  10   0
El Morro........................  76  40  76  38 /   5   5   5   0
Grants..........................  81  42  81  42 /   5   5   5   0
Quemado.........................  80  42  81  41 /   0   0   5   0
Magdalena.......................  83  50  83  51 /   0   0   5   0
Datil...........................  79  44  80  43 /   0   0   5   0
Reserve.........................  82  39  83  39 /   0   0   5   0
Glenwood........................  85  49  88  49 /   0   0   5   0
Chama...........................  69  39  70  40 /  20  10  20   0
Los Alamos......................  76  54  77  52 /  10   5  10   0
Pecos...........................  77  49  78  49 /  10   5  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  72  42  73  41 /  10  10  20   5
Red River.......................  67  35  68  37 /  20  10  20  10
Angel Fire......................  69  26  70  32 /  20  10  20   5
Taos............................  77  41  78  42 /  10  10  10   0
Mora............................  74  45  76  44 /  10   5  10   0
Espanola........................  83  50  85  51 /  10   5   5   0
Santa Fe........................  80  50  81  51 /  10   5   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  84  48  85  48 /  10   5   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  85  57  86  59 /   0   5   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  87  58  88  57 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  89  51  90  54 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  87  56  88  56 /   0   5   5   0
Belen...........................  91  53  90  53 /   0   0   5   0
Bernalillo......................  88  55  88  54 /   0   5   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  88  50  90  50 /   0   0   5   0
Corrales........................  88  56  88  55 /   0   5   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  89  52  90  51 /   0   0   5   0
Placitas........................  86  55  86  56 /   0   5   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  86  57  86  56 /   0   5   5   0
Socorro.........................  92  56  93  56 /   0   0   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  78  51  79  50 /   0   5   5   0
Tijeras.........................  80  52  81  52 /   0   5   5   0
Edgewood........................  79  49  80  49 /   0   5   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  45  81  44 /   0   5   5   0
Clines Corners..................  77  48  78  48 /   0   5   5   0
Mountainair.....................  82  50  83  50 /   0   0   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  83  51  84  51 /   0   0   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  87  60  87  60 /   0   0   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  79  53  80  53 /   0   0   5   0
Capulin.........................  74  47  74  47 /  30  10  30  20
Raton...........................  77  46  78  46 /  20  10  20  10
Springer........................  82  47  83  47 /  20   5  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  79  47  80  46 /  10   5   5   0
Clayton.........................  81  53  80  52 /  20  10  20  20
Roy.............................  80  51  80  50 /  20   5  10   0
Conchas.........................  90  56  91  56 /   5   5   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  86  55  88  56 /   5   5   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  88  55  87  56 /   5   5   5   0
Clovis..........................  88  57  88  59 /   0   0   5   0
Portales........................  91  58  90  61 /   0   0   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  91  58  91  59 /   0   0   5   0
Roswell......................... 100  63 100  64 /   0   0   5   0
Picacho.........................  89  58  90  59 /   0   0   5   0
Elk.............................  85  57  86  55 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for NMZ105-106-109-123>125.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106-124>126.

&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11