Red Flag Warning 43, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
322 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Scattered strong to severe storms will continue through the morning
in the northeast. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized flash
flooding are possible with these storms. Breezy southwest winds
prevail today with elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions in central and south-central NM. Breezy westerly winds
will continue each afternoon through the weekend with elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions in east-central areas.
Isolated storms are possible each afternoon in the northeast. High
temperatures will rise up to and slightly above seasonal normals
late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Supercells are continuing to track eastward across northeast NM this
morning. Quarter to ping-pong sized hail was reported earlier this
evening and the current storms retain the capability to produce
large hail. Since these storms are training over locations that have
already had 1"-3" of rain this afternoon and evening, flash flooding
will be a risk through the morning, particularly in urban and low-
lying areas. Some patchy fog is possible around mid-morning near
Clayton but intermittent rain showers will prevent any persistent
fog from developing. Recent high-res guidance suggests storms
will weaken after sunrise as the atmosphere begins to stabilize.
Rainfall rates decrease and the severe threat will likely be over
but a few showers and weak storms cannot be ruled out through the
afternoon. Temperatures will be well-below average in the
northeast with low clouds hanging out for most of the day.

A dry Pacific cold front will cross the state today so winds will be
more westerly than yesterday. Breezy conditions will prevail, but a
few stronger gusts cannot be ruled out with stronger winds mixing
down as the front passes through. Despite mostly clear skies,
temperatures will generally be a few degrees cooler than yesterday
thanks to some weak cold air advection behind the front.

Low ceilings finally clear out of the northeast tomorrow morning as
southwest flow pushes the dryline boundary eastward. Breezy westerly
winds will develop again Tuesday afternoon across the state with the
strongest winds along and just east of the central mountains. A weak
wave will cross the state on Tuesday, generating isolated to
scattered storms across the northeast again where a strong to severe
cell or two cannot be ruled out given the steep lapse rates, modest
shear, and low level moisture in place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Tuesday through Sunday will largely be a persistence forecast
with breezy to locally windy westerly winds and dry weather
prevailing. A nearly stationary trough off the West Coast of the
US will allow dry, westerly flow to continue over the state mid-
and late week. Some models have the moisture boundary in eastern
NM far enough west to generate isolated showers and storms again
on Wednesday and Thursday while others have the dry westerly flow
taking over and preventing any convection from developing. The
West Coast trough will move inland late week, resulting in an
uptick in wind speeds as jet level winds increase. Weak ridging
will build in ahead of the incoming trough so temperatures will
finally warm up to seasonal averages and maybe even a few degrees
above seasonal averages in the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM MDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along and east
of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains for the remainder of tonight.
Some storms will probably turn severe with a risk of large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes until about 4 AM MDT. The risk of
severe weather is expected to decrease thereafter. Areas of low
clouds and patchy fog are expected across northeast and east
central areas for the remainder of tonight until mid morning
Monday, except until mid day over NM's northeast corner. Southwest
winds will be breezy to windy again on Monday. Scattered to
isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to
northeast areas during the afternoon and evening, with a few
isolated severe thunderstorms again possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Locally critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
this afternoon along the middle RGV and in the Sandia and Manzano
mountains thanks to breezy westerly winds and low humidity.
Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
for those locations. Minimum relative humidity will generally be
in the single digits across the warning area so winds will be the
limiting factor for more widespread critical conditions. Breezy
westerly winds will continue each afternoon through Sunday, with
elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in south-
central and east-central areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  47  79  48 /   0   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  72  39  73  38 /   0   0  10   0
Cuba............................  73  43  74  46 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  72  40  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  70  39  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  75  40  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  74  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  77  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  73  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  76  37  82  40 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  80  49  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  66  36  66  39 /   5   0  20   0
Los Alamos......................  72  49  71  50 /  20   0   5   0
Pecos...........................  72  45  73  48 /   5   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  67  41  67  41 /  20   0  20   5
Red River.......................  62  36  63  37 /  30   0  30  10
Angel Fire......................  65  34  64  35 /  30   0  20   5
Taos............................  73  38  74  39 /  10   0  10   0
Mora............................  70  42  70  43 /  30   0  10   0
Espanola........................  79  47  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  74  48  74  50 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  77  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  81  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  54  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  54  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  86  51  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  83  53  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  85  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  84  54  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  85  51  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  79  53  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  82  54  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  87  53  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  48  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  76  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  76  46  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  43  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  75  45  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  77  47  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  77  47  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  81  55  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  73  49  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  63  44  68  44 /  60  10  40  10
Raton...........................  69  44  73  43 /  60   5  30   5
Springer........................  73  45  76  45 /  40   0  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  74  43  75  46 /  30   0   5   0
Clayton.........................  64  52  74  51 /  50  10  20  10
Roy.............................  71  50  74  48 /  50   5  10   0
Conchas.........................  80  55  84  55 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  82  53  82  54 /  20   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  79  54  81  54 /  20   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  83  55  85  56 /  10   0   0   0
Portales........................  86  54  88  56 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  87  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  97  60  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  85  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  82  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ106-124.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1159 PM MDT Sun Jun 11 2023

NMZ215-228-120630-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
1159 PM MDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MORA COUNTY
THROUGH 1230 AM MDT...

At 1159 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of La Cueva, or 9 miles east of Mora, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ocate, Luceros, Rainsville, Ojo Feliz and El Turquillo.

This includes State Road 434 between Mile Markers 5 and 13.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 10516 3604 10530 3630 10512 3599 10482
TIME...MOT...LOC 0559Z 228DEG 14KT 3603 10517

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1231 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

NMZ227-228-231-120700-
Far Northeast Highlands-Harding County-Johnson and Bartlett Mesas
Including Raton Pass-
1231 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN HARDING
AND SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM MDT...

At 1230 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Maxwell, or 9 miles northeast of Springer, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Springer, Maxwell and Abbott.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 411 and 428.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3633 10464 3656 10465 3665 10409 3616 10411
TIME...MOT...LOC 0630Z 277DEG 25KT 3643 10445

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1255 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

NMZ215-228-229-120730-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-Northeast Highlands-
1255 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SAN
MIGUEL, EASTERN MORA AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM
MDT...

At 1254 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Wagon Mound, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wagon Mound.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 372 and 406.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 10504 3623 10498 3630 10446 3572 10443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0654Z 270DEG 25KT 3606 10480

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
146 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

NMZ228-231-120815-
Far Northeast Highlands-Harding County-
146 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
HARDING, NORTHEASTERN MORA AND SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES THROUGH
215 AM MDT...

At 145 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Springer, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Abbott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 10455 3629 10453 3636 10410 3614 10412
      3611 10437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0745Z 275DEG 25KT 3621 10447

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

44

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
333 AM MDT Mon Jun 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 AM     Hail             1 W Clayton             36.45N 103.19W
06/12/2023  E1.00 inch       Union              NM   Trained Spotter

&&

44

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