Red Flag Warning 32, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1143 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Critical fire weather will continue to impact the region through
Friday with gusty winds and very low humidity. Temperatures will
be cold tonight and most areas will see freezing temperatures.
Folks with tender vegetation need to take precautions to prevent
damage from the cold temperatures. An end to the extended fire
weather pattern is expected by Saturday and Sunday as moisture
begins filtering into the region. Thicker clouds, some sprinkles
or light showers, and a couple storms are possible. Next week may
feature a more organized weather system with potential for better
coverage of rain showers, higher terrain snow, and a few storms
across eastern NM. Confidence is still low to moderate however a
pattern change to wetter conditions looks more possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Another windy late April day is in progress as an upper low has
shifted into the northern Great Plains, and periodic shortwave
perturbations are lagging behind and feeding into NM via stiff
northwest flow aloft. Forecast model runs from this morning were
still struggling to reach consensus on the strength of the flow
aloft today with the GFS considerably stronger at 700 mb. If this
pans out, more areas will reach advisory criteria before the sun
sets, so will hang on to this statement through 8 pm MDT. In
addition to the breezy to windy conditions, lip balm is an absolute
necessity this afternoon, as sub-zero reading dewpoints have
steadily entered NM, creating very low relative humidity despite the
cooler temperatures. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out over
far northeastern zones tonight, as aforementioned perturbations race
across. A glance at forecast soundings reveal large surface dewpoint
depressions, so much of this would likely remain virga. Tonight’s
low temperatures will be a few degrees colder than last night, so
Freeze Warnings are going to be issued. These statements always come
with much nuance, as varying locales have drastically different
median last freeze dates, even within the same public forecast zone,
but for now will focus on the ABQ metro and the east central plains
where many locales are just slipping past the average last spring
freeze date.

For Friday, a subtle reduction in wind speed is forecast with any
ripples in the northwest flow becoming much more faint and weak. The
surface low will regenerate and broaden over eastern NM zones
Friday, not reaching optimal orientation and depth, but still
sufficient to keep widespread breezy to windy conditions ongoing. In
fact, wind speeds will likely just be a few ticks less than today
with possible Wind Advisories needed again for the northeast to
central highlands and adjacent high plains. Otherwise, dry
conditions will continue with only modest gains in dewpoints to the
single digits and teens (F). Temperatures Friday afternoon will gain
a couple to a few degrees, but will still remain slightly below
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Saturday will feature a welcome departure from the recent week of
fire weather. Abundant upper level moisture spreading south across
the southern Rockies will allow thick cirrus to develop over NM.
Meanwhile, a strong backdoor cold front will surge southwest thru
eastern NM with much cooler temps and improving low level moisture.
This front will move thru the central mt chain and into the RGV
Saturday night. Gap winds may be breezy for a few hours on Sunday
morning as better moisture slides into the area. Thick cirrus are
likely to remain overhead Sunday afternoon ahead of another upper
level wave approaching from the Great Basin. Enough instability
from limited daytime heating may allow virga and rain showers to
develop within central NM where the backdoor cold front washed
out from Saturday night. The upper level shortwave is shown moving
slowly east across northern NM Monday and potentially deepening
slightly ahead of yet another shortwave. More rain showers, very
high terrain snow, and perhaps a few storms are possible across
northern and eastern NM Monday. Forecast confidence deteriorates
by Tuesday as the next shortwave attempts to carve out a closed
upper low near northern NM and southern CO. A backdoor cold front
is also poised to enter eastern NM which introduces additional
low level moisture. The overall idea of a pattern change is coming
more into sight but messaging will remain focused on fire weather
and freezing temps for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building swd
through NM. Brief mt obscurations possible over north central into
ne NM prior to 12Z in wdly sct light showers. Nwly wind gusts to
around 35kt before 18Z with gusts to around 45kt along the
central mt chain aft 18Z. Winds to diminish aft 22/01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY...

Critical to near-critical fire weather conditions will persist into
the early evening with the primary focus remaining over the central
highlands, northeast highlands and east central plains where winds
and Haines indices are highest. The Red Flag Warning is set to
expire at 8 pm MDT when winds should slacken, but likely not fully
subside in many areas. With such low dewpoints feeding into NM, the
overnight RH recovery should only manage to reach 35 to 50 percent
in many zones with the exception of the northern mountains and
northeastern highlands and plains. Colder, and even freezing,
temperatures are also forecast for many tonight.

Modest temperature gains of a few degrees are forecast for Friday,
but readings will still remain slightly below average for mid to
late April. Only a slight or subtle reduction in wind speed is
expected on Friday, as northwest winds aloft still appear to stay
rather strong with another weaker and dry disturbance passing over
the northeastern corner of NM. Dewpoints may rise a few degrees, but
will still be very low and sufficient for critically low humidity of
10 to 15 percent in many zones coincident with the gusty conditions.
The highest confidence for overall critical fire weather conditions
is over the interface of the central highlands and northeast
highlands where a Fire Weather Watch will be issued for Friday. One
fly in the ointment with Friday will be lower Haines indices and
generally more stable conditions, despite the presence of windy and
dry conditions.

Another backdoor cold front is slated to enter eastern NM late
Friday night into Saturday, reinforcing cooler temperatures while
bringing shifting and locally gusty winds. Meanwhile, northwest flow
aloft would prevail on Saturday, but the disruption to the surface
pressure pattern from the front should fend off widespread critical
conditions into the afternoon.

Northwest flow is forecast to persist into Sunday with humidity
getting a big boost in eastern zones as the cooler air mass gets a
reinforcement of cool, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Northwest
flow is now modeled to break up into Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday
with a series of cooler and more moist disturbances arriving, and
this would hopefully alleviate critical conditions in many zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  26  62  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  18  56  28  59 /   0   5   0   0
Cuba............................  24  57  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  22  63  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  23  60  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  24  65  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  26  64  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  30  67  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  27  64  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  28  72  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  36  75  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  13  49  24  53 /   0   5   0   5
Los Alamos......................  29  57  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  23  57  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  18  53  30  54 /  10   5   0  20
Red River.......................  12  45  23  47 /  10   5   0  30
Angel Fire......................   4  48  18  50 /  10   0   0  20
Taos............................  15  57  27  59 /   5   5   0  10
Mora............................  20  56  30  57 /   5   0   0   5
Espanola........................  26  64  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  26  59  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  24  63  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  31  65  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  33  67  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  26  69  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  32  67  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  30  73  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  29  66  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  27  71  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  31  67  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  29  71  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  29  64  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  32  66  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  36  76  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  25  59  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  27  61  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  24  61  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  23  63  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  25  59  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  26  63  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  29  65  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  37  68  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  29  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  20  57  26  50 /  20   0   0   5
Raton...........................  20  62  26  56 /  20   0   0  10
Springer........................  22  64  28  59 /  10   0   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  23  61  31  59 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  29  63  31  54 /  20   0   0   0
Roy.............................  25  64  31  55 /  10   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  32  72  37  64 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  31  69  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  33  71  38  62 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  34  70  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  33  73  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  34  73  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  41  80  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  38  73  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  36  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ219-232>234.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for NMZ123>125.

&&

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...33