Red Flag Warning 30, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Bernalillo County, NM, Catron County, NM, Cibola County, NM, Colfax County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Los Alamos County, NM, McKinley County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, Rio Arriba County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Juan County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Sandoval County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Socorro County, NM, Taos County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Union County, NM, Valencia County, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1124 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue across portions
of east central and southeast NM through the early evening hours.
These storms will be capable of strong and erratic wind gusts, but
generally, little rainfall. Precipitation chances will then be
minimal through the Thursday as the main focus will be strong
winds and critical fire weather concerns. Wednesday will be the
windiest day of the week where westerly wind gusts may near 50
mph. Cooler temperatures are expected for the end of the week,
before slowly warming back up early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Isolated showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and little rain
may linger until 7 or 8 pm this evening over east and southeast
parts of Roosevelt County, before exiting east of the forecast area.
There may be some patchy fog late tonight and early Tuesday morning
from around Clovis southward, where humidity recovery near 100
percent is expected. Southwest winds will strengthen on Tuesday as
an upper level trough crosses the northern and central Rockies, and
humidities will plummet, producing critical fire weather conditions
over much of the forecast area.  Wind gusts from 30-40 mph will be
common on Tuesday afternoon, except up to 50 mph over some of the
high peaks of the northern mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Strong westerly winds will be the rule on Wednesday as an upper
level jet crosses NM and a surface low deepens to 992 mb near the
NM/CO/OK border. Strong mixing combined with the healthy surface
pressure gradient will lead to widespread windy conditions. It's
likely that some areas will need a Wind Advisory as we near the
event. Areas of blowing dust are likely given the lack of recent
precipitation. Additionally, humidity values will be very low
resulting in widespread critical fire weather concerns, which will
be discussed more in the Fire Weather section below. High
temperatures on Wednesday will generally be near to above normal,
except across far northwest NM where temps may be a bit below
normal. Late Wednesday into Thursday, a cold front will sweep
across the area from west to east, then during the day Thursday,
the backdoor segment of the cold front will slide southward
across the eastern plains. The fronts will not bring any
additional moisture to the area, but temperatures will cool a few
to several degrees. However, but the afternoon, strong west to
northwest winds will return across the area, though in general,
winds will not be as strong as Wednesday. Thursday night into
Friday, a sharp trough, or perhaps weakly closed low, will slide
across northeast NM. The associated Pacific and backdoor cold
fronts will slide through the area with breezy to locally windy
conditions along and behind the front. The backdoor segment should
introduce some moisture into eastern NM, and there is a
possibility of light rain and high elevation snow across at least
northeast NM. The weekend is expected to be much quieter, with
less wind and slowly warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Low level moisture making a run westward and back into ern NM at
05Z. Impacts not expected at KROW and KTCC but MVFR cigs may
impact KCVN and KCVS by 18/12Z. Low level moisture to exit rapidly
aft 18/15Z as sw-wly winds strengthen with potential for gusts to
around 40 kt over nw and ne NM. Otherwise sct mid to high level
clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Mon Apr 17 2023

...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...

A broad upper level low pressure system will slowly cross the
northern Rockies through wide week steering the jet stream over NM
producing a stretch of critical fire weather conditions Tuesday
through Thursday.  After some drier variety thunderstorms that occur
over the plains of Roosevelt County late this afternoon and early
evening, southwest winds will strengthen areawide Tuesday and
humidities will plummet into the single digits many places with
widespread critical fire weather conditions over western and eastern
parts of the fire weather forecast area. Locally critical fire
weather conditions are also expected from around Dulce, Chama, and
Cuba southward through the middle Rio Grande Valley, as well as the
Sandia/Manzano and Gallinas Mountains, but they are not included in
the Red Flag Warning which is now in effect for Tuesday. After fair
to poor humidity recoveries Tuesday night, winds will strengthen
further Wednesday, when humidities will again drop into the single
digits many places with critical fire weather conditions area
areawide. Wednesday should feature the strongest winds of the week
with gusts reaching 45 to 55 mph across the forecast area.  Pacific
and back door cold fronts will cross Wednesday night, shifting the
wind direction out of the west and northwest for Thursday.  Despite
high temperatures a near and several degrees below normal on
Thursday, humidities will again plummet into the single digits many
places with another round of critical fire weather conditions
areawide.  In addition, Haines Indices will vary mostly from 5-6 on
Tuesday through Thursday. Winds will weaken on Friday, but an upper
level trough will bring a chance for rain and snow showers to the
northern mountains and northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  73  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  31  68  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  37  68  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  34  68  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  35  65  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  33  71  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  35  69  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  41  73  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  37  69  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  34  73  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  45  75  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  29  60  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  43  67  42  62 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  41  68  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  40  63  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  33  56  31  51 /   0   0   0   5
Angel Fire......................  28  59  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  32  68  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  37  67  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  39  75  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  42  69  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  39  72  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  48  75  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  46  76  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  44  79  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  45  76  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  41  81  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  44  78  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  41  80  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  45  78  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  42  80  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  46  74  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  45  77  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  44  83  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  43  68  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  43  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  40  72  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  36  73  35  70 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  39  69  39  67 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  41  72  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  41  72  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  48  77  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  45  68  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  37  70  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  33  73  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  34  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  39  70  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  43  80  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  40  75  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  43  82  47  80 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  42  79  45  78 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  46  83  47  83 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  46  83  46  83 /  10   0   0   0
Portales........................  46  85  47  85 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  44  83  46  83 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  47  89  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  46  80  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  46  77  48  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ101-104-
105-109-121>123-125-126.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...42