Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
214 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2022

A storm system will bring strong winds to eastern New Mexico and
light rain and snow to western and northern New Mexico on Wednesday.
30 to 40 mph winds with gusts up to 65 mph are possible in eastern
New Mexico while breezy to windy conditions are likely for the rest
of the state. Tranquil weather with above average temperatures
returns Thursday and Friday, but a pattern change will bring
unsettled weather to the state next weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 210 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2023

A potent shortwave trough and associated strong winds aloft are
hitting the Four Corners currently and will progress east across the
southern Rockies and northern NM this morning, with lee side
cyclogenesis forecast this afternoon across southeast CO. 40-50kts
at 700mb and 80-100kts at 500mb will move over the area today, with
windy to very windy conditions forecast. The strongest winds will be
along and east of the central mountain chain where gusts up to 65mph
are possible. Will keep the existing High Wind Warning as-is, but
add the upper RGV south to the middle RGV to the Wind Advisory for
today. The trough will push a Pacific cold front through today with
colder temperatures areawide, although still 5-10 degrees above
normal across the eastern plains due in part to downslope winds. The
wind highlights end at 6PM MST, but a few zones may need to be
extended for a couple of hours. Light snow is ongoing across
northwest NM currently, including in the Tusas Mountains, where
several inches of snow are likely through mid day. Snow
accumulations are expected to stay below advisory threshold, except
for possibly the peaks and higher west facing slopes of the Tusas.
Winds will diminish overnight as the upper level trough/low races
east away from the state. An upper level ridge will build across the
Intermountain west on Thursday, bringing sunny skies, much less wind
and daytime temperatures closer to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2023

A ridge will build into the Intermountain West on Thursday and
Friday. Temperatures will be around average on Thursday, but
subsidence from the amplified ridge will warm temperatures to 5-15
degrees above average on Friday. The GEFS is confident that a switch
from the positive to negative phase of the PNA will occur over the
weekend, meaning that the persistent troughing over the eastern
Pacific the past couple of weeks will finally move inland into the
western US. The influx of moisture into New Mexico will likely bring
rounds of unsettled weather.

Guidance is struggling with the timing of a wave that will impact
the state Sunday and Monday. With ensemble means showing PWAT
anomalies of 150 to 225% in New Mexico, confidence is high that
precipitation chances will increase in at least the western and
central portions of the state. However, the intensity and duration
of precipitation is unclear due to the range of potential storm
tracks. Troughing over the Great Basin is expected to continue
into the middle of next week, potentially bringing another storm
or two into the state. Not only will precipitation chances
increase, but westerly winds will also pick-up from the central
mountains eastward during the afternoon hours Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2023

Wly winds around 50kt at mt top levels with LLWS impacting the
wrn mts as well as locales along and near the central mt chain.
45-50kt surface wind gusts spreading over much of central and ern
NM aft 11/15Z with 100kt jet at 500 mb passing from w-e over
central NM. Mt obscurations in short lived MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys
in snow and blsn developing from near KGUP to KFMN and into north
central NM between 11/08-12Z. Showers and clds to diminish by
11/18Z but potential for lcl MVFR vsbys in bldu increases over the
ern plains. Winds and bldu to diminish aft 12/01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2023

A potent trough and associated Pacific cold front will race east
across the area today bringing windy to very windy conditions,
especially along/east of the central mountain chain. Critical fire
weather conditions are forecast across the eastern plains, where a
Fire Weather Watch will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Will drop
the watch for the central highlands due to higher humidity forecast
there. Chances for wetting precipitation will be confined to
northwest NM and the northern mountains, mainly this morning. A
warming trend will begin Thursday as a ridge builds across the
Intermountain West and shifts east through Saturday. Vent rates will
be mostly poor under the influence of the upper level ridge. A
series of troughs will impact the area beginning Sunday, with windy
conditions and chances for wetting precipitation, mainly along/west
of the central mountain chain. Vent rates will improve Sunday
through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  42  17  42  19 /  20   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  36   8  42  10 /  70   0   0   0
Cuba............................  37  13  41  17 /  40   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  42  14  48  16 /  20   0   0   0
El Morro........................  38  16  48  19 /  20   0   0   0
Grants..........................  42  12  49  13 /  10   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  42  18  51  20 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  47  24  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  42  20  49  23 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  50  20  57  22 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  53  27  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  31   5  38   9 /  80   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  39  19  43  24 /  30   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  41  19  47  23 /  20   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  35  12  41  17 /  40   0   0   0
Red River.......................  29   7  37  12 /  50  10   0   0
Angel Fire......................  32   1  40   0 /  50   5   0   0
Taos............................  38   9  43  10 /  30   5   0   0
Mora............................  38  17  47  21 /  30   0   0   0
Espanola........................  45  17  48  17 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  41  20  44  24 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  45  16  46  19 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  48  28  48  28 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  24  49  26 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  52  22  52  19 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  23  49  25 /   5   0   0   0
Belen...........................  54  20  52  20 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  49  22  49  23 /  10   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  53  19  52  18 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  50  22  50  23 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  54  19  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  46  24  46  25 /  10   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  48  23  49  25 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  56  24  53  24 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  41  22  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  44  24  46  26 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  44  20  46  23 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  16  48  18 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  42  17  45  22 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  45  22  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  46  21  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  52  25  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  47  23  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  47  15  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  49  13  49  15 /   5   0   0   0
Springer........................  50  13  51  15 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  45  15  48  21 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  55  24  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  50  19  49  21 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  58  21  54  21 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  55  23  53  23 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  61  23  53  21 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  61  27  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  62  26  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  60  25  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  67  31  57  26 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  60  27  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  58  26  51  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening
for NMZ104-126.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
evening for NMZ212>215-221-223-226-228-229-231>237-239-240.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening
for NMZ222-224-227-230-238.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening
for NMZ216>219.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11