Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1133 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Delightful weather will continue through Wednesday with warming
temperatures and breezy southwest winds. Widespread strong winds
will develop over the region Thursday as a potent weather system
shifts north of NM. Southwesterly wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph are
possible for much of central and eastern NM along with areas of
blowing dust and critical fire weather. Temperatures will be much
warmer with these strong winds on Thursday. Colder air will arrive
Thursday night along with some light snow across the far northern
and western high terrain. Another round of strong winds is expected
on Friday with gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible over much of central
and eastern NM. Temperatures will be much colder again Friday and
blustery winds will make it feel even colder. Critical fire weather
is possible as well across eastern NM Friday. Saturday will be a
transition day with warming temperatures and breezy winds before
the next round of spring winds ramps up over the region beginning
on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Batches of altostratus and cirrus have been moving over northern NM
in weakly divergent upper level flow that is preceding another
weaker shortwave trough. These clouds will thin out into the late
afternoon and early evening as the upstream trough dampens and moves
over the boot heel and into the borderland. Breezy to windy
conditions, particularly in the northeast to far northeastern
highlands and adjacent high plains, will subside around sunset as
the boundary layer decouples. Ridge tops and higher peaks may
undergo a slight increase in wind speed overnight, and this will act
to keep temperatures a bit warmer than last night, and dewpoints
will also be rising a few degrees which will also prevent it from
being as cold.

The flow aloft will not increase much during the day on Wednesday,
but it will turn more southwesterly, and with a pronounced warming
trend, deeper vertical mixing should yield more widespread breezy
conditions by the afternoon. Once again the northeast highlands and
adjacent high plains will overachieve (gusts of 30 to 35 mph) due to
their proximity to the lee-side surface low, and the west central
highlands will also follow suit where winds at the top of the
boundary layer will be slightly higher than other areas. Otherwise,
most locations should reach seasonal averages in the 50’s, 60’s, and
70’s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2023

A widespread strong to potentially damaging wind event will arrive
Thursday as a potent upper level storm system shifts north of NM. A
large swath of 700-500mb layer winds of 60 to 70kt will cross NM and
coincide with peak heating and subsequent deep mixing. Moderate to
high confidence exists for southwest wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph over
the southeast half of the forecast area. The exact core of strongest
surface winds still differs amongst models with regard to timing and
location of the 65+ mph gusts. The NBM was a tad slower and has the
peak gust corridor along the central mt chain and nearby highlands.
The bulk of recent MOS shows the focus centered more over eastern
NM. The 12Z GEFS favors the strongest winds over the southwest and
south central higher terrain. Nonetheless, a large swath of high
winds is likely with areas of blowing dust and dangerous fire
weather. Max temps will be much warmer in this regime with many
areas across eastern NM topping out 5 to 10F above normal. Temps
will trend cooler across western NM by the afternoon as a potent
Pacific cold front approaches the area. Rain and high terrain snow
showers with even a couple storms are possible across the northern
and western mts by late Thursday.

A sharp west wind shift will blaze eastward thru the region Thursday
evening and overnight along the mid to upper level trough axis. Mt
wave action will increase along the central mt chain overnight with
continued windy conditions. Winds will taper off over the remainder
of central and eastern NM but still remain elevated overnight. Winds
will increase quickly Friday morning with 700-500mb layer flow near
45-55kt across eastern NM. Another round of high winds is possible
but there is much greater confidence for widespread Wind Advisory
level speeds from the central mt chain eastward. Blowing dust may
again impact eastern NM with more dangerous fire weather. Temps will
trend much colder in the wake of the front with highs falling near
10 to 15F below normal. Very dry air with a stronger surface high
building into the area Friday night will lead to another widespread
cold night with subfreezing lows in most areas.

A shortwave trough will race east thru NM on Saturday with breezy
west winds and warmer temps areawide. Fast zonal flow continues into
Sunday with more breezy west winds and even warmer temps. Another
strong wind event is possible next Monday ahead of the next potent
storm system approaching from the Great Basin. Spring is certainly
upon us and temps will finally look more like it as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Generally light winds are expected overnight but southwest winds
will increase during the late morning hours Wednesday. Gusts
between 25 and 30kts will be possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail though another batch of high clouds will stream
across northern NM this morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2023

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST
NM AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM...

Ongoing critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across
northeastern NM will diminish toward sunset with winds decreasing
and humidity rising afterwards.

A substantial warm-up is then expected on Wednesday with more
seasonable temperatures for late March, and breezy conditions will
become more widespread with deeper vertical mixing. Once again, the
northeastern highlands and nearby plains will outperform neighboring
areas with winds rising into the windy category (gusts to 30 to 35
mph) Wednesday afternoon, and the west central highlands will also
reach this status. This could yield locally critical fire weather
for a couple of hours in the Las Vegas to Raton to Capulin area
Wednesday afternoon.

The main period of concern continues to be on Thursday when the next
strong upstream CA low pressure system moves toward the Rockies as
an open trough. This system will be preceded by very strong
southwesterly flow aloft which will effectively mix down to the
surface Thursday afternoon, especially over central to eastern NM
where warmer (near to slightly above average) temperatures will
hold. The widespread windy to very windy conditions will also be
accompanied by dry conditions and minimum humidity of 7 to 12
percent in many central valley and eastern plains areas. Haines
indices look to climb to 4 to 5 over eastern zones Thursday,
signifying more instability there. With minimal precipitation
received over the plains the past few months, fine fuels seem to be
primed and receptive to fire growth in the east, but questions
remain for the mosaic of fuels in the central Rio Grande valley zone
(Zone 106).

The Pacific front will have swept into all areas of NM by early
Friday, and while the cooler air will reduce instability/Haines
indices, there will still be wind concerns over eastern zones with
many areas observing gusts of 45 to 55 mph, if not higher.

A welcome respite from the stout winds arrives Saturday, but fairly
widespread breezy conditions are still expected. Wind speeds
increase Sunday and more-so into Monday as temperatures rebound and
deeper vertical mixing ensues. Tuesday of next week will be a day to
watch, as yet another high wind day could develop, but there are
some uncertainties with the track and timing of the trough of low
pressure that are still being analyzed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  30  65  35  58 /   0   0   0  20
Dulce...........................  19  58  29  56 /   0   0   0  30
Cuba............................  27  58  34  59 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  29  65  33  55 /   0   0   0  20
El Morro........................  25  62  30  56 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  25  66  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  27  63  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  33  66  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  27  64  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  27  67  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  35  70  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  17  51  25  50 /   0   0   0  30
Los Alamos......................  30  57  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  28  60  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  30  52  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  17  48  25  52 /   0   0   0   5
Angel Fire......................  18  50  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  23  59  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  25  59  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  29  65  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  29  60  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  27  63  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  36  65  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  38  67  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  29  69  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  33  67  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  28  71  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  31  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  27  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  33  67  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  28  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  32  64  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  32  66  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  35  72  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  32  60  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  32  63  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  27  63  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  25  66  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  27  62  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  30  64  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  29  64  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  34  68  48  70 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  30  63  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  25  64  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  21  67  29  69 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  23  69  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  26  64  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  33  70  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  28  67  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  30  73  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  28  70  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  32  72  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  30  71  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  30  73  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  30  71  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  34  77  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  30  73  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  30  71  44  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for NMZ104-106-123>126.

High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for NMZ208-215-221-223-224-226>234-239>241.

&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...34