Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
241 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2023

Tuesday will be warm with high clouds and breezy to windy conditions
in the Sangre de Cristo mountains and eastern plains. Strong
winds are expected from the central mountains eastward Wednesday
afternoon, with gusts up to 65 mph possible on the eastern plains.
A few inches of snow are likely in the northern mountains with
light rain and snow possible in the surrounding lower elevations.
Mostly clear skies with above average temperatures will prevail
Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances begin to increase next
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2023

Increasing westerly flow is forecast today, with strong mountaintop
winds mixing down to the surface across eastern NM. The Wind
Advisory for the Sangre De Cristos is still on track and will also
include the central/northeast highlands east to Quay County
beginning at 10AM. Warming is forecast today, despite increasing
mid/high cloudiness, with downslope winds helping temperatures rise
10-20 degrees above normal across the eastern plains and highlands.
Westerly flow aloft will continue to increase overnight, keeping the
lower boundary layer at least partially mixed and with abundant
cloud cover will make for well above normal low temperatures. The
jet stream will move directly over NM on Wednesday as a shortwave
trough moves along the CO/NM border, pushing a Pacific cold front
across the state. Lee side cyclogenesis is forecast Wednesday
afternoon over southeast CO, bringing a strengthening of the surface
pressure gradient and strong to potentially damaging winds to much
of eastern and central NM. Will keep the High Wind Watch as-is for
now. Strong winds across eastern NM on Wednesday will likely result
in patches of blowing dust with localized reduced visibility. In
addition, the shortwave trough will bring sufficient forcing for a
round of snow showers to northwest and north central NM late Tuesday
night through Wednesday mid day. The Tusas Mountains will once again
be the big winner, with around 6" likely across the peaks and higher
west-facing slopes. A Winter Weather Advisory may be required for
the Tusas, including Chama. Cold air advection behind the Pacific
front will bring cooler temperatures on Wednesday, but highs are
still forecast to be 5-10 degrees above normal across the eastern
plains due in part to strong downslope winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2023

On Wednesday night, the storm system will race off to the east as
ridging quickly builds in behind it over the Intermountain West.
Strong winds on the eastern plains will likely diminish into a
breeze after sunset as 700 mb winds rapidly decrease and the
boundary later decouples from the mid-levels. However, some
guidance does have strong northwesterly winds behind the cold
front holding on into the overnight hours before tapering off
early Thursday morning.

While the airmass behind the storm system will be colder than the
current one, temperatures will only cool to around seasonal
averages on Thursday afternoon. The tranquil weather will continue
into Friday as temperatures warm to 5-15 degrees above average.
Mid and upper level Pacific moisture begins to push into western
New Mexico on Saturday, resulting in an uptick of high cloud
cover in the western and central portions of the state.

While there is good agreement that troughing will eventually push
into the desert southwest early next week, cluster analysis shows
disagreement on the depth of the trough as well as quickly it pushes
into New Mexico. Regardless, unsettled weather with mountain snow,
low elevation rain, and increased winds are expected early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 PM MST Mon Jan 9 2023

Sct-bkn high clouds. A period of sct-bkn mid clouds before 10/12Z
over nw and north central NM where brief isold light showers are
possible. Winds at mt top levels increase over the Sangre de
Cristo mts aft 10/06Z where LLWS is possible in the vicinity,
including KLVS. Wly sfc winds increase over portions of ne and
east central NM aft 10/17Z where gusts to around 40kt possible.
Potential for LLWS becomes more widespread over wrn as well as ne
NM aft 11/01Z as a storm system approaches the Four Corners.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2023

Stronger downslope winds will result in well above normal
temperatures across the eastern plains today. Critical fire weather
conditions are forecast across the east central plains this
afternoon and a Red Flag Warning will be issued shortly. Even
stronger winds will hit the area Wednesday as a potent trough races
east along the CO/NM border. A Fire Weather Watch will be issued
shortly for Wednesday for the central highlands, northeast plains
and east central plains. Although fire weather climatology does not
favor large fire growth in early January and forecast humidity is
barely touching critical threshold, the Red Flag Threat index is
showing sufficient coverage of critical conditions to justify the
issuance of these products. Colder conditions will follow behind a
Pacific cold front Wednesday night, then ridging will bring a
warming trend from Thursday through Saturday with daytime
temperatures rising back above normal areawide on Friday. Vent rates
will take a dip and be mostly poor from Thursday through Saturday.
Winds will be back on the uptrend late in the weekend and into early
next week as the jet stream dips back to the south and brings two
troughs, with the first one hitting on Sunday. The Sunday trough
will bring chances for wetting precipitation to western NM, with
accumulating snow to the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  30  42  19 /  10  60  20   0
Dulce...........................  45  25  36  10 /  20  70  60   0
Cuba............................  48  27  37  16 /   5  40  30   0
Gallup..........................  53  28  41  17 /   0  50  20   0
El Morro........................  51  28  38  18 /   0  40  20   0
Grants..........................  56  29  42  12 /   0  30  10   0
Quemado.........................  55  30  43  15 /   0  20  10   0
Magdalena.......................  57  34  47  24 /   0   0   5   0
Datil...........................  53  30  43  18 /   0  10   5   0
Reserve.........................  57  31  50  21 /   0  10   5   0
Glenwood........................  61  37  52  29 /   0  10   5   0
Chama...........................  40  21  31   6 /  20  80  80   0
Los Alamos......................  49  30  39  22 /   0  30  30   0
Pecos...........................  51  29  41  20 /   0  10  20   0
Cerro/Questa....................  45  27  35  15 /   0  50  50   0
Red River.......................  40  20  29  10 /   0  50  50   0
Angel Fire......................  42  23  31   1 /   0  40  40   0
Taos............................  48  26  38  10 /   0  30  40   0
Mora............................  51  30  38  18 /   0  10  20   0
Espanola........................  54  30  45  17 /   0  20  20   0
Santa Fe........................  50  29  41  22 /   0  10  20   0
Santa Fe Airport................  52  29  44  19 /   0  10  20   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  35  47  29 /   0  10  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  34  49  26 /   0  10  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  32  52  24 /   0  10   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  32  49  25 /   0  10  10   0
Belen...........................  60  31  53  21 /   0  10   5   0
Bernalillo......................  57  32  49  24 /   0  10  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  59  31  52  20 /   0  10   5   0
Corrales........................  57  32  49  24 /   0  10  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  59  31  53  20 /   0  10   5   0
Placitas........................  54  33  45  25 /   0  10  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  56  32  48  25 /   0  10  10   0
Socorro.........................  62  34  55  26 /   0   0   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  32  41  24 /   0  10  10   0
Tijeras.........................  52  33  44  25 /   0  10  10   0
Edgewood........................  53  32  44  22 /   0  10  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  30  46  18 /   0  10  10   0
Clines Corners..................  54  32  44  19 /   0   0  10   0
Mountainair.....................  55  34  46  23 /   0   0   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  55  33  47  23 /   0   0   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  60  39  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  58  39  49  23 /   0   0   5   0
Capulin.........................  60  30  47  17 /   0   0  10   0
Raton...........................  62  28  49  15 /   0   0  10   0
Springer........................  63  27  50  15 /   0   0   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  60  33  46  18 /   0   0  10   0
Clayton.........................  68  37  54  24 /   0   0  10   0
Roy.............................  63  35  51  21 /   0   0   5   0
Conchas.........................  69  38  57  23 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  67  37  56  24 /   0   0   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  72  39  61  23 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  71  39  61  26 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  72  39  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  71  38  61  26 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  75  40  68  32 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  68  43  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  66  43  58  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
for NMZ223-229-232>234.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for NMZ104-125-126.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for NMZ212>215-221-223-226-228-229-231>237-239-240.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ213>215.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 5 PM MST this afternoon for
NMZ126.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...99