High Wind Warning 18, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023

Quieter conditions are expected today amongst seasonable
temperatures. A pattern change is expected this weekend into next
week with multiple rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms.
East canyon winds will push through the gaps of the central
mountains Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing strong gusts
to the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metros. Temperatures will trend
below to near normal Saturday through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023

Lighter winds and warmer temperatures are expected today but the
quiet weather will be short lived. A cold front will surge into
northeast NM in the afternoon, where low chances for showers and
storms are possible. The front will progress down the eastern plains
on gusty northeast winds this evening, and reach the Middle Rio
Grande Valley on strong and gusty east winds later tonight. At the
same time, chances for showers and storms east of the central
mountain chain increase. The MAV guidance for KABQ has been slowly
creeping higher each run, with the 00Z version indicating sustained
52 kts at 3am tonight. The ECS and MET are in good agreement in the
mid 30 kt range. Hard to tell if there will be a convective element
to the east wind, and would like to believe the MAV is the outlier.
There will likely need to be a Wind Advisory for the Santa Fe area
as well, therefore will leave the High Wind Watch as is for now.
Saturday will be around 10-20 degrees cooler over the east, and most
locales east of the Continental Divide will see below normal highs.
The NAM12 suggests thunderstorms will favor areas near the
Continental Divide Saturday afternoon, while portions of northeast
NM may be too stable for more than an isolated cell or two.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023

A wet, convoluted pattern is on tap to dominate the long term
forecast. A gaggle of upper level lows wobble around the western
CONUS as a healthy tap of moisture filters in from the Gulf Saturday
night into Sunday. East winds into the central valleys are likely to
persist thanks to continued sfc pressure tightness, though not near
to the extend as Friday night/Saturday morning's magnitudes. While
rich moisture will remain in place Sunday afternoon, widespread
cloud cover will temper instability. Rain showers will prevail
across the eastern plains, while western NM remains more likely to
see thunderstorms. Said stability will also work in part to limit
rainfall rates. Nonetheless, care should be taken in and around
already swollen rivers and recent burn scars. High pressure begins
to take shape across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Storms will
then fire off of recycled moisture, initially favoring the high
terrain before maturing enough to wander off. This activity is
anticipated to persist through late next week. Models seem to be
having a tough time given the low amplitude pattern, as evident by
lackluster run-to-run consistency. As such, did not stray far
from NBM for PoPs. Temperatures will trend below to near normal,
rising steadily each day past Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023

Diminishing nwly flow aloft becoming swly by 18Z. Weak surface
high pressure over ne NM at 11Z to strengthen by 13/00Z as a cold
front dives into the region and reaches the central mt chain by
13/06Z on ne winds gusting to around 35kt. Elsewhere, low level
moisture will progress into se NM with potential for isold tstms
aft 13/00Z. Showers and storms to become more widespread through
13/09Z over ern NM where areas of MVFR cigs to develop and a
strong and gusty e-se wind breaks into the RGV at KABQ and KSAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Fri May 12 2023

Warmer temperatures and localized elevated fire weather conditions
this afternoon will give way to an unseasonably cool and more moist
air mass over the region Saturday and into the middle of next week.
Gusty northeast winds will spread down the eastern plains this
evening and strong east winds are possible into the Rio Grande
Valley later tonight and early Saturday. A few showers and storms
over northeast NM this afternoon will become more widespread over
the east tonight and storms Saturday will favor areas near the
Continental Divide with widespread showers and a few storms possible
over the eastern plains. Weather models suggest moisture will remain
over the region through next week keeping showers and storms in the
forecast, although there are differences in the details of
pinpointing favored locales for wetting rain. Areas of poor
ventilation will plague the north central and east Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  78  48  80  51 /   0   5  20  30
Dulce...........................  73  36  73  41 /   5   5  40  50
Cuba............................  72  44  68  43 /   0   5  30  40
Gallup..........................  75  41  76  43 /   0   0  20  30
El Morro........................  72  43  70  44 /   0   5  40  40
Grants..........................  77  42  73  41 /   0   5  20  40
Quemado.........................  75  43  74  43 /   0   5  30  30
Magdalena.......................  76  47  69  47 /   0   5  30  50
Datil...........................  74  44  69  43 /   0   5  50  40
Reserve.........................  80  42  80  40 /   0   0  20  20
Glenwood........................  83  50  85  50 /   0   0  20  20
Chama...........................  68  34  66  38 /   5   5  50  60
Los Alamos......................  73  49  67  48 /   0   5  30  40
Pecos...........................  73  46  64  45 /   0  10  30  60
Cerro/Questa....................  67  40  63  43 /  10  10  60  70
Red River.......................  60  35  54  37 /  20  20  80  70
Angel Fire......................  64  34  57  36 /  10  20  70  80
Taos............................  72  40  68  41 /   5  10  40  70
Mora............................  71  41  61  42 /   5  30  50  70
Espanola........................  79  48  75  48 /   0   5  30  40
Santa Fe........................  74  49  67  47 /   0   5  30  50
Santa Fe Airport................  77  48  70  46 /   0   5  30  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  79  54  72  53 /   0   5  20  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  80  55  74  52 /   0   5  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  54  76  51 /   0   5  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  54  75  52 /   0   5  20  30
Belen...........................  83  52  76  49 /   0   5  20  40
Bernalillo......................  81  54  75  51 /   0   5  20  40
Bosque Farms....................  83  52  76  48 /   0   5  20  30
Corrales........................  81  53  75  51 /   0   5  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  83  52  76  49 /   0   5  20  30
Placitas........................  78  53  71  52 /   0   5  20  40
Rio Rancho......................  80  53  74  51 /   0   5  20  30
Socorro.........................  85  52  77  51 /   0   5  20  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  48  65  47 /   0   5  20  40
Tijeras.........................  75  50  68  47 /   0   5  20  40
Edgewood........................  76  47  66  45 /   0   5  20  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  45  67  42 /   0   5  20  50
Clines Corners..................  74  44  63  43 /   0  10  20  60
Mountainair.....................  76  47  65  45 /   0  10  20  40
Gran Quivira....................  77  47  64  45 /   0  10  20  40
Carrizozo.......................  82  52  68  50 /   0  20  20  40
Ruidoso.........................  74  46  59  44 /   0  30  50  40
Capulin.........................  68  40  61  44 /  10  20  30  80
Raton...........................  74  42  67  45 /  10  20  30  70
Springer........................  76  45  68  47 /  10  20  30  70
Las Vegas.......................  75  43  63  44 /   0  20  30  70
Clayton.........................  75  48  68  49 /   5  10  20  70
Roy.............................  77  47  66  48 /   5  20  40  80
Conchas.........................  85  52  70  52 /   0  30  30  70
Santa Rosa......................  84  51  66  49 /   0  30  30  70
Tucumcari.......................  86  53  68  52 /   0  40  40  80
Clovis..........................  86  52  64  50 /   0  50  70  80
Portales........................  88  53  66  51 /   0  50  70  80
Fort Sumner.....................  87  53  67  50 /   0  50  40  70
Roswell.........................  92  59  70  56 /   0  40  60  50
Picacho.........................  85  51  64  49 /   0  40  50  40
Elk.............................  81  48  62  45 /   0  40  60  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for
NMZ219.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...99