High Wind Warning 11, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1201 PM MST Wed Mar 1 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2023

Updated zones to expand Wind Advisory to the Sandia and Manzano
Mountains, Central Highlands, and Northeast Highlands until 9 pm
this evening based on recent MOS and graphical guidance trends.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2023

Winds will be back on the uptrend today ahead of an approaching
storm system, especially across the southern mountains and
adjacent highlands where Wind Advisories are in effect. The storm
system will begin impacting western New Mexico tonight with
widespread snow that will transition east across the area through
Thursday. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are
in effect for much of western and northern New Mexico. The storm
system will bring strong winds and much colder temperatures on
Thursday, with the strongest winds across south central and
southeast portions of the area where damaging wind gusts are
possible. Winter weather impacts may continue across eastern
portions of the state through Thursday evening. Colder conditions
will follow on Friday, but a warming trend is forecast through the
weekend into Monday with temperatures rising above normal across
much of the area. Winds will be back on the uptrend by Sunday with
strong winds continuing into early next week, especially across
eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2023

Deep upper level trough has swooped into northern CA, attempting to
close off around a 528 dam center. Meanwhile, a 300 mb 140 kt speed
max will slide across the state today, helping to enhance winds at
the surface. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft will help to
enhance orographic lift ahead of the incoming system. This will
allow snow showers to get a head start across the Chuska and Tusas
Mountains today. Model guidance is in good agreement of the trough
forming a closed low early this morning in central CA before
sweeping into the Desert Southwest. Track has trended further south,
which will help to limit winds both today and Thursday. Nonetheless,
advisory level magnitudes will exist across the southern high
terrain and did hoist a Wind Advisory for the southwest mts, south
central mts and their adjacent highlands and some of the neighboring
lowlands for this afternoon.

The main front begins pushing into the state Wednesday night, the
timing and evolution of which is still debatable amongst short-
range guidance. The finer details aside, winter precipitation and
strong winds enter the arena Wednesday night, persisting through
Thursday. Did go ahead and upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to a
collection of Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories.
A similar setup to past events is clear with this fropa, and the
potential for snow squall type activity may be possible once again
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. As the low approaches,
easterly drainage winds across the northwest plateau may create
some favorable deformation allowing areas such as Farmington to
have a healthy bout of snowfall overnight. As such, did opt to
include the northwest plateau in Winter Weather Advisory. The
system blitzkriegs across the state within the day on Thursday,
ejecting into the plains by the late afternoon. As it passes
across the eastern plains, a gusty backdoor cold front digs down
from southeastern CO. The uncertainty with this portion of storm's
song is if it will retain enough moisture for additional snowfall
amongst troublesome winds, and whether portions of northeastern
NM will need its own set of Winter Weather Advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2023

The upper low will continue racing east Thursday night from over
the TX Panhandle into OK. Strong winds will continue on the
backside of the departing upper low Thursday evening, but will
then trend down through the overnight hours. A few hours of snow
and blowing snow are likely across the eastern plains near the TX
border Thursday evening, but will be diminishing rapidly. A Wind
Advisory may be required for windy conditions behind the backdoor
portion of the cold front across the east central and northeast
plains Thursday evening. Much colder conditions will follow
Thursday night into Friday with below normal temperatures
forecast. Friday will feel cold due to stronger west-northwest
flow aloft resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions. Expect
a brief break on Saturday followed by increasing westerly flow on
Sunday with windy to very windy conditions forecast. The same
goes for Monday and Wind Advisories will likely be required both
days. The good news is a warming trend is forecast through the
weekend into early next week that will take temperatures above
normal most areas, but especially across the eastern plains due to
downslope winds. The 00Z medium range model solution are at odds
with a Pacific moisture tap developing going into Tuesday of next
week, with the GFS once again the more bullish model and breaking
out precipitation across much of northern and western NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2023

A low pressure system will approach from the west today, then
cross late tonight through Thursday. Scattered rain and snow
showers with mountain obscurations will favor western and north
central areas for the rest of today. Snow will become widespread
from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward
tonight, then the focus for rain and snow will spread to the area
along and east of the central mountain chain on Thursday
afternoon. Snow squalls will be possible as a gusty Pacific cold
front dives through western and central areas late tonight and
Thursday morning. Accumulating snow will impact many of the
airports along and west of the central mountain chain late tonight
through Thursday morning. Strong winds are also expected mainly
over the mountains, south and east this afternoon, then over the
mountains and southern areas tonight. A gusty backdoor cold front
will produce strong north winds as it plunges southwestward
through the eastern plains on Thursday, while strong northwest
winds impact western, central and southern areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST
FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DUE TO
VERY WINDY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS...

Critical fire weather conditions will return to portions of the east
central plains and middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. Current
swath of Pacific moisture creating scattered to broken cloud cover
is expected to burn off, creating ample sunshine across central New
Mexico by the late morning. Meanwhile, minimum RH will plummet below
15 percent across a majority of the eastern plains and southern
portions of the Middle Rio Grande Valley. Moderate to strong
southwest winds are expected once again today from the late morning
into the early evening. Another potent storm system makes its
arrival Wednesday night through Thursday, bringing accumulating
snowfall and strong winds. Friday will bring quieter and drier
weather, with breezy to locally windy conditions, warming
temperatures through the weekend. Another bout of unsettled weather
is expected early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  26  43  17 /  50  80  30   0
Dulce...........................  41  19  40  13 /  90  80  50   5
Cuba............................  44  20  37  15 /  20  90  60   5
Gallup..........................  41  18  37  14 /  40  90  40   0
El Morro........................  41  17  35  16 /  30  90  50   0
Grants..........................  47  19  39  14 /  20  70  40   0
Quemado.........................  46  16  34  15 /   5  80  50   0
Magdalena.......................  52  23  38  24 /   0  60  40   0
Datil...........................  46  17  33  19 /   0  80  40   0
Reserve.........................  48  14  39   9 /  30  90  30   0
Glenwood........................  52  23  41  18 /  20 100  30   0
Chama...........................  34  17  37  11 /  90  90  70  20
Los Alamos......................  43  26  37  23 /  20  90  70  10
Pecos...........................  46  25  37  21 /  10  70  80  10
Cerro/Questa....................  38  27  36  18 /  40  80  80   5
Red River.......................  33  18  30  11 /  60  80  90  10
Angel Fire......................  34  18  32   6 /  50  70  90  10
Taos............................  41  23  38  12 /  20  60  70   5
Mora............................  44  23  36  19 /  10  50  70  10
Espanola........................  51  29  43  20 /  20  80  70   5
Santa Fe........................  45  26  38  23 /  20  80  80  10
Santa Fe Airport................  49  26  41  20 /  10  70  70  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  30  43  30 /  10  70  70   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  29  45  26 /   5  60  50   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  28  47  24 /   5  60  50   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  28  45  25 /  10  70  50   0
Belen...........................  61  28  50  21 /   5  60  50   0
Bernalillo......................  57  29  45  25 /  10  70  60   0
Bosque Farms....................  61  27  49  20 /   5  60  50   0
Corrales........................  58  29  46  24 /  10  70  50   0
Los Lunas.......................  60  29  49  20 /   5  60  50   0
Placitas........................  52  28  42  25 /  10  80  70   5
Rio Rancho......................  57  29  45  25 /  10  70  50   0
Socorro.........................  63  30  48  26 /   5  50  40   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  25  36  24 /  10  80  70  10
Tijeras.........................  51  26  39  25 /  10  70  80  10
Edgewood........................  52  24  38  23 /  10  60  60  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  25  39  19 /  10  50  60  10
Clines Corners..................  50  23  36  19 /   5  50  60  20
Mountainair.....................  54  24  38  22 /   5  50  70   5
Gran Quivira....................  54  24  39  22 /   0  50  70   5
Carrizozo.......................  58  29  43  27 /   0  50  70   5
Ruidoso.........................  51  23  35  24 /   0  50  80  20
Capulin.........................  48  23  32  16 /   0  30  70  20
Raton...........................  50  23  36  14 /   0  40  70  10
Springer........................  54  23  39  14 /   0  30  50  10
Las Vegas.......................  50  26  39  19 /   0  30  60  10
Clayton.........................  56  30  41  20 /   0  10  70  20
Roy.............................  54  30  40  19 /   0  10  60  10
Conchas.........................  63  34  48  22 /   0   5  70  10
Santa Rosa......................  60  31  45  26 /   0  10  70  20
Tucumcari.......................  66  33  48  22 /   0   0  70  20
Clovis..........................  67  35  50  24 /   0   0  50  40
Portales........................  69  36  52  23 /   0   0  50  40
Fort Sumner.....................  66  32  47  25 /   0   0  60  30
Roswell.........................  76  37  54  29 /   0   0  20  10
Picacho.........................  62  32  46  30 /   0   5  30   5
Elk.............................  60  28  42  28 /   0  10  40   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST
Thursday for NMZ201-203>206-213-214-216-217.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ106-126.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ208.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST
Thursday for NMZ208-211.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Thursday for NMZ202-210.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ221-223>225-229-
239.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ226-240.

High Wind Watch from 8 PM MST this evening through Thursday
evening for NMZ226-239-240.

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon
for NMZ238.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44