Flash Flood Warning 97, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

A surge of monsoon moisture will allow for more widespread shower
and thunderstorm coverage this weekend across northern and central
New Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the
weekend, along with an increased risk of flash flooding, especially
across recent burn scars. A backdoor front Sunday night will bring
cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation potential
trends down by midweek with isolated to scattered storms favoring
the high terrain. Temperatures will climb near to above average
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Disturbance moving north over eastern AZ with resulting light
showers over northwest NM early this morning. Surface boundary
continues to sag into east central NM at this time but models
indicate it's not going to make it much farther south and west. SPC
Day 1 outlook has spread the Marginal and Slight Risk areas into
northeast NM and have noted this in the weather grids. Have also
hoisted a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding for portions of the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains this afternoon and evening. While models
indicate cells over northeast NM will move fairly quickly, stronger
winds aloft there would potentially be favorable for heavy rain,
however CAMS at this time suggest the highest QPF would be over
eastern Colfax and Union counties, so there is some level of
uncertainty. High temperatures today have come down across western
NM and are actually about 5-10 degrees below normal. Another
boundary will push into northeast and east central NM tonight based
on convection over southeast CO although Sunday's forecast highs
don't seem to be impacted much if at all. SPC Day 2 outlook has
portions of northeast NM under the Marginal Risk, which is also now
mentioned in the grids.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

High pressure elongates over the Deep South as a broad trough swings
through the northern Great Plains to start the extended forecast.
Ample monsoon moisture continues to filter into the Desert Southwest
and the aforementioned trough will kick off a backdoor front down
the eastern plains of NM Sunday night. Given the additional lift
provided by the front and the available moisture, did trend PoPs up
across northeastern and east central NM Sunday night. Westward surge
of the front will bring gusty canyon winds to the central valleys,
the magnitude of which continues to amplify by each model run. Did
run with the high side of guidance for these east winds,
especially through the Middle RGV and ABQ metro. Should the trend
continue, wind highlights may be necessary in future updates.
Significantly cooler temperatures will follow in the wake of this
front, where reductions of a few to as many as 20F can be expected
of Monday's highs, especially across the eastern plains. High
pressure aloft snakes back into the Desert Southwest Monday,
allowing for shower and thunderstorm focus to shift to western NM.
The upper high reorganizes over NM Tuesday, resulting in less
favorable access to the moisture plume. This will limit convective
activity but won't eliminate it, with the highest chances for
storms across the western and northern high terrain during the
midweek.

Models begin to deviate from each other come Friday, creating large
disparities regarding the high center's position. The GFS pushes the
feature eastward into TX, allowing for the monsoon plume to attempt
to stand up across the Desert Southwest. It's a scenario somewhat
echoed by the CMC, allowing for widespread shower and thunderstorm
coverage across northern and central NM. The rosy picture is not
shared, however, by the ECMWF, which anchors the high over the Four
Corners in all its stubbornness. The result would be a far drier
and hotter solution. Given the disagreement, did not deviate too
far from NBM PoPs but did trend some of the higher PoPs back a
skosh.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
brief MVFR conditions with sct/num showers and storms this
afternoon/evening. Gusty/erratic winds are likely with convection
this afternoon/evening. Terminals most likely to be impacted this
afternoon are KGUP, KAEG and KSAF, followed by KTCC this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

A plume of moisture streaming over the region in conjunction with a
couple of boundaries will bring higher potential for wetting showers
and thunderstorms to northern and central NM through Monday. One
boundary will impact northeast NM later today and tonight with
another more vigorous boundary forecast to surge into the Rio Grande
Valley to the Continental Divide Sunday night. Locally heavy rain
will be possible which could lead to flash flooding. The upper high
is forecast to move back over NM next Tuesday and linger through the
rest of the week. Enough moisture will be trapped under the ridge
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
Temperatures generally remain near to above normal except for today
across the west and overall on Monday when cooler than normal highs
are expected. Some areas of fair to poor ventilation forecast today
through Tuesday west and north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  59  91  64 /  20  20  20  10
Dulce...........................  82  49  86  53 /  50  30  30  30
Cuba............................  80  53  83  57 /  30  30  30  30
Gallup..........................  80  53  85  58 /  40  30  30  20
El Morro........................  76  51  80  55 /  50  30  40  30
Grants..........................  80  53  84  56 /  40  30  40  30
Quemado.........................  77  53  81  57 /  50  40  50  40
Magdalena.......................  78  59  83  61 /  60  30  50  40
Datil...........................  75  53  79  57 /  60  30  60  40
Reserve.........................  81  55  85  55 /  50  30  50  30
Glenwood........................  86  63  91  64 /  50  30  40  30
Chama...........................  75  46  80  49 /  60  40  50  40
Los Alamos......................  78  58  83  62 /  50  40  50  40
Pecos...........................  82  56  84  58 /  50  40  50  60
Cerro/Questa....................  80  48  81  49 /  70  50  50  60
Red River.......................  74  44  75  45 /  70  50  70  60
Angel Fire......................  72  42  74  43 /  80  60  60  60
Taos............................  80  51  84  53 /  60  40  50  50
Mora............................  78  51  80  53 /  60  60  60  60
Espanola........................  86  56  88  62 /  40  40  40  40
Santa Fe........................  82  58  84  62 /  40  40  50  50
Santa Fe Airport................  85  58  87  60 /  40  30  40  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  85  65  89  67 /  30  30  30  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  88  66  90  67 /  20  30  30  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  89  61  92  66 /  20  30  20  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  87  65  91  67 /  20  30  20  40
Belen...........................  89  63  92  66 /  20  30  20  40
Bernalillo......................  88  63  92  66 /  30  30  20  40
Bosque Farms....................  89  61  92  63 /  20  30  20  50
Corrales........................  88  63  92  66 /  30  30  20  40
Los Lunas.......................  89  62  92  64 /  20  30  20  50
Placitas........................  85  62  88  66 /  30  30  30  50
Rio Rancho......................  87  64  91  67 /  30  30  20  40
Socorro.........................  88  66  92  67 /  30  30  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  81  58  83  60 /  30  30  40  50
Tijeras.........................  83  60  85  62 /  30  30  40  50
Edgewood........................  83  58  86  59 /  40  30  40  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  56  87  56 /  30  30  40  50
Clines Corners..................  83  56  84  54 /  40  40  40  60
Mountainair.....................  83  58  85  59 /  30  30  40  50
Gran Quivira....................  84  59  85  59 /  30  30  40  50
Carrizozo.......................  87  65  88  64 /  30  20  30  50
Ruidoso.........................  80  59  81  56 /  40  20  50  50
Capulin.........................  82  54  80  53 /  70  70  50  60
Raton...........................  81  53  84  55 /  70  60  50  60
Springer........................  82  55  84  57 /  70  60  60  60
Las Vegas.......................  82  55  84  55 /  60  60  60  60
Clayton.........................  88  62  89  57 /  60  60  30  60
Roy.............................  86  59  87  57 /  60  60  60  70
Conchas.........................  91  63  92  63 /  40  60  30  80
Santa Rosa......................  93  64  92  62 /  40  60  30  70
Tucumcari.......................  96  66  96  62 /  30  60  30  80
Clovis..........................  96  67  96  65 /  20  40  20  70
Portales........................  98  69  98  66 /  20  40  20  60
Fort Sumner.....................  96  68  96  66 /  20  40  30  70
Roswell......................... 102  73 101  71 /  20  20  20  60
Picacho.........................  92  66  91  64 /  40  20  30  60
Elk.............................  87  63  88  60 /  30  20  40  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...11