Flash Flood Warning 92, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
302 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are
possible across the eastern plains of New Mexico through the late
evening hours. The primary hazard will be strong winds, but large
hail is also possible with the stronger activity. Storms will be
moving in a south-southeast direction. Gusty canyon winds should
develop once again within the Rio Grande Valley this evening, but
wind speeds will not be as strong as this morning. A strong upper
level high over the Four Corners area will slowly migrate directly
over the Land of Enchantment for the early to middle part of next
week. Unfortunately, this will allow the excessive heat to return,
with many locations reaching the century mark, especially over the
northwest plateau, the Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque
Metro area, and the eastern plains. Meanwhile, sufficient moisture
will remain in the state to support daily showers and storms over
the higher terrain. Storms will be slow-moving and there will be
a risk for gusty outflows during the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Last night’s westward push of moisture was substantial and higher
surface dewpoints have been trying to hold their ground with upper
40’s and low 50’s readings still being observed in some western and
central parts of NM. The PWAT per this morning’s radiosonde release
was also above 1.0 inch. This has not only offered a slight
moderation to the temperatures, but is also helping initiate storms
over the mountains despite the strong (596-597 decameter) Four
Corners high. While some additional mixing will reduce the boundary
layer moisture and storm chances over the Zuni mountains and
surrounding Continental Divide highlands, remaining areas should
observe more efficient rain shafts through the evening as mesoscale
cold pools propagate and lead to new convection in lower elevation
valleys. Storms are still expected to turn strong to severe into
eastern NM as early afternoon CIN continues to erode away. CAMs and
high resolution forecast models indicate a multicellular cluster or
mesoscale convective system impacting east central NM through the
early evening with a tapering off of convection between 23/0300-
23/0600UTC.

Low level moisture will then once again largely advect westward
tonight, but any east canyon winds in vulnerable locations should be
shorter in duration and not quite as strong. Any higher dewpoints
that do make it into the San Juan valley or toward/beyond the
Continental Divide should mix out with a bit more ease going into
Sunday afternoon. The upper high should nudge just east of the Four
Corners Sunday, and it will strengthen by a couple more decameters.
This will reduce the northerly/northeasterly flow in northeastern NM
while reinstating stronger subsidence. Temperatures will
consequently rise a couple to a few degrees in most zones, putting
the northwest plateau at need for a Heat Advisory, so this was
already issued. As for convection, storms should be considerably
subdued, favoring the Gila with scattered storms still possible over
the northern and south central peaks.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023

The main forecast challenges for the longer term period will be
focused on the excessive heat as well as the coverage of showers
and thunderstorms beneath strong high pressure aloft.

For Monday, deterministic model guidance shifts the 500hPa high
pressure into northwest or north-central NM by afternoon. Its
strength will be rather impressive for this time of year, near
600dam, which based on climatology, will be near record values.
This will place a healthy lid on the atmosphere, and with near/
below average PWATs for this time of year, the coverage of storms
should be rather limited. Given this setup, opted to reduce NBM
PoPs with the focus across the northern and western mtns. It is
important to note...the NBM has a climatological component to its
analysis, and given the rather atypical/dry monsoon so far, one
can anticipate that NBM PoPs will trend higher than the ensemble
output. As the upper high is directly over the region, steering
flow will be lighter and wetting footprints will be limited. A
quick peruse of model soundings indicate inverted-V profiles and
DCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg. As a result, gusty microburst winds is
a potential threat. Heat Advisories will be needed for the RGV,
Chaves County and the northwest plateau, with the century mark
forecast to be exceeded from Clayton to Clovis. That said, temps
could be hampered due to convective blow-off and gusty outflows,
especially in western/central NM.

Not a lot of change is expected to the synoptic pattern on Tues,
as the upper high positions itself directly over the ABQ Metro.
The NBM offers likely PoPs (60%+) throughout the southwest high
terrain, but reduced these probabilities given the aforementioned
reasoning. The upr high will weaken by a couple of dam on Wed as
it takes on a more southwest-northeast orientation compliments of
a weak trough moving into the PacNW. Meanwhile, models suggest an
increase in moisture in western/central NM. With the orientation
of the high, storms forming over the Sangre de Cristo Mts should
have a better opportunity to track into the northeast plains. The
increased PoPs/clouds will likely reduce highs a few degrees over
the impacted areas. Unfortunately, excessive heat will persist in
the southeast plains with 110 degrees in jeopardy for Roswell.

The upper high remains extremely determined to stay over NM for
the latter portion of the work week. In fact, the trough over the
PacNW will make little progress and will be forced eastward across
southern Canada. The high's strength is forecast to range between
598-600dam at 500hPa, but where the axis is oriented is still up
for debate. This minor detail will plan a role for storm motions.
Regardless, above normal temps should persist along with the best
chances of storms over the western/northern mts. DPorter

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Cumulus clouds are already blossoming over the mountainous
terrain of northern and central New Mexico, and thunderstorms
will quickly be taking shape through the afternoon. Storms will
briefly be strong over the mountains, struggling to expand in a
weaker fashion over the western and central valleys of the state
through the early evening. In eastern New Mexico, storms will
have an easier time of sustaining heavy downpours, hail and gusty
downburst winds as they drift south southeast off of the central
mountain chain and fill into the plains. Storms are expected to
mostly die off before midnight with only a few stray lighter
showers expected to survive into the late overnight hours. While
afternoon temperatures will not be quite as hot as earlier this
week, readings will still be high enough for elevated density
altitude readings, suggesting poor aircraft performance for many.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023

A temporary weakening of high pressure has been observed today
with temperatures running slightly lower than the past few days
along with a bit more coverage of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly over the mountains and eastern half of the state. This
will be a brief- lived trend, as the dome of high pressure is
forecast to strengthen through the week ahead, causing
temperatures to soar back to near- record or record highs while
suppressing the coverage of thunderstorms. Storms will still
develop each afternoon, primarily over the southwestern mountains
and secondarily over remaining high terrain zones of northern and
central NM, but storms will certainly not be as numerous as they
should be for late July. Storms will also be quite inefficient at
producing appreciable rainfall, and this will keep a threat for
new lightning ignitions going. Prevailing winds will tend to stay
light to moderate, but shower and thunderstorm outflows will
produce temporary and localized disruptions to this generalization.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65 101  64 100 /   0   0  10  10
Dulce...........................  52  94  53  97 /  20  20  20  30
Cuba............................  56  92  58  94 /  20  20  30  20
Gallup..........................  57  97  57  96 /  10  30  40  30
El Morro........................  56  91  55  92 /  30  40  40  30
Grants..........................  55  94  55  96 /  30  30  40  30
Quemado.........................  59  91  59  92 /  40  50  50  50
Magdalena.......................  63  90  65  94 /  50  30  20  20
Datil...........................  58  89  60  91 /  50  40  30  30
Reserve.........................  54  93  55  96 /  40  70  40  40
Glenwood........................  64  97  65 100 /  40  60  40  30
Chama...........................  49  87  51  90 /  20  30  20  30
Los Alamos......................  62  89  67  92 /  30  30  30  30
Pecos...........................  57  89  61  93 /  40  30  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  50  88  53  91 /  30  20  20  30
Red River.......................  45  81  49  87 /  30  30  20  40
Angel Fire......................  39  83  43  85 /  30  30  20  30
Taos............................  51  90  56  95 /  30  20  20  30
Mora............................  52  86  56  91 /  30  30  20  30
Espanola........................  59  97  64 100 /  20  10  20  20
Santa Fe........................  60  91  66  94 /  30  20  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  58  94  63  97 /  30  10  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  95  70  98 /  40  10  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  97  72  99 /  40   5  20   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  99  67 101 /  40   5  20   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  97  70  99 /  40   5  20   5
Belen...........................  66  99  70 101 /  40  10  10   0
Bernalillo......................  64  99  68 101 /  30   5  20   5
Bosque Farms....................  61  98  65 101 /  40  10  20   0
Corrales........................  65  99  69 101 /  40   5  20   5
Los Lunas.......................  63  98  66 101 /  40   5  20   0
Placitas........................  64  96  68  98 /  30  10  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  67  97  70  99 /  30   5  20   5
Socorro.........................  67  98  70 103 /  40  20  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  89  65  92 /  40  10  20  10
Tijeras.........................  62  92  66  94 /  40  10  20  10
Edgewood........................  58  92  63  96 /  40  10  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  93  58  97 /  50  10  20   5
Clines Corners..................  56  89  62  93 /  50  10  20   5
Mountainair.....................  59  91  65  94 /  60  10  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  60  91  65  94 /  60  20  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  64  93  68  97 /  50  30  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  54  85  56  88 /  40  50  10  10
Capulin.........................  55  88  60  92 /  20  10  10  10
Raton...........................  54  91  58  94 /  20  10  10  20
Springer........................  55  93  58  97 /  20  10  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  54  90  59  94 /  30  20  20  20
Clayton.........................  61  93  65 100 /  10   5   0   0
Roy.............................  58  90  64  95 /  40   5  10   5
Conchas.........................  63  96  68 102 /  50   0  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  62  93  68  98 /  50   0  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  63  96  67 102 /  50   0   5   0
Clovis..........................  65  95  67 102 /  50   0   5   0
Portales........................  66  97  69 103 /  50   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  67  97  70 101 /  70   0   5   0
Roswell.........................  71 101  72 106 /  30   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  64  94  66  98 /  40  20   5   0
Elk.............................  60  88  62  94 /  30  40   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ201.

Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-226.

&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...52

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
242 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023

NMZ226-222100-
South Central Mountains-
242 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
LINCOLN COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM MDT...

At 242 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Glencoe, or 9 miles east of Ruidoso, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ruidoso Downs and Glencoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 10562 3344 10554 3346 10542 3343 10534
      3341 10533 3330 10535 3331 10558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 179DEG 9KT 3335 10548

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Guyer

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