Flash Flood Warning 85, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1108 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023

Less shower and thunderstorm activity is expected today as more
dry and stable air invades New Mexico. Scattered storms will
still impact the southwestern and south central mountains, but
rainfall amounts will tend to be on the lighter side. Temperatures
will warm a few degrees in many locations, creeping farther above
normal and into the upper 90's and even above 100 degrees in
lower elevation valleys. An upper level disturbance will enter
northeastern New Mexico on Monday, leading to strong to severe
thunderstorms with isolated to scattered weaker storms continuing
in central to southwestern parts of the state. High pressure will
strengthen Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with hot temperatures
persisting. Swaths of drier air will tend to limit the amount of
showers and thunderstorms during this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023

A convectively driven frontal boundary is pushing south and west
through northeastern NM this morning. Low clouds and higher moisture
in the form of 50s to near 60 dewpoints are following in its wake
through much of Union County this hour. This boundary is expected to
make it through the northeastern and east-central plains by sunrise
with potential for low clouds and patchy fog reaching as far as
Tucumcari and Las Vegas. Meanwhile, the 593dm H5 upper high remains
centered over the northern Chihuahuan Desert and is expected to drift
north into the southwestern tier of NM this afternoon. The
combination of subsidence from the high and relatively low moisture
in the form of 30s to near 40 dewpoints will strictly limit
convective potential this afternoon. Scattered storms will favor the
higher terrain of the Gila NF and Sacramento Mountains however with
little movement over surrounding lower elevations. Despite the
influx of higher moisture through northeastern NM, a capping
inversion thanks to the cooler boundary layer behind the frontal
boundary will prevent convective potential in that part of the state
today. The main impactful hazard will be the heat. With highs
reaching the low 100s in Albuquerque, near 105F in the lower Rio
Grande Valley and Chaves County, a Heat Advisory will be in effect.

A well defined 582dm H5 upper low currently coming ashore CA near
Santa Barbara will track around the northern periphery of the upper
high tonight into Monday, opening to a shortwave trough as it does
so. This will bring perhaps a few stray light showers favoring the
northern mountains near the CO border Monday morning. It will also
increase westerly winds aloft over the northern mountains and over
the northeastern highlands and plains Monday afternoon. With the
aforementioned cooler airmass having veered out of the south and
modified, there will be greater instability and forcing to allow for
a robust potential of scattered to numerous storms developing along
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. With MLCAPE values ranging from 1000
to 2500 J/kg and bulk shear values of 20-30kts, discrete cells will
be capable of producing severe wind and hail across northeastern NM
Monday afternoon, and into east-central NM by the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023

Monday's strong to severe storms would likely congeal and exit
east central New Mexico into west TX Monday evening. As of now,
this cluster of storms is not modeled to send much of an outflow
westward into NM as the responsible shortwave trough moves into
TX. Going into the daytime Tuesday, surface dewpoints would likely
gain a bit more homogeneity across the forecast area while a dry
swath aloft pivots into northern zones. This will leave a chance
for isolated to scattered storms with the southwestern and south
central peaks being favored at 30 to 40 percent. Similar to past
years, the NBM seems to be overcooked with its depiction of early
monsoon POPs, particularly in the southwestern mountains, so
these values were undercut to more realistic percentages, yet most
of the activity will likely be inefficient at rainfall production
due to such large surface dewpoint depressions. With the upper
dome of high pressure also likely reaching its peak strength over
southwestern NM Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will be hot and
subsidence will also pose difficulty for storms to develop, so the
already reduced POPs may still be a bit too high. Lots of locales
in the Rio Grande valley and the eastern plains should exceed 100
degrees Tuesday afternoon.

Similar trends will persist into Wednesday with the stout high
staying centered near southwestern NM. The best mid level moisture
will stay poised over southwestern zones, but again the likely
POPs advertised by the NBM seemed too high, so values were dropped
to scattered coverage. Temperatures may gain a degree or two in
eastern zones with more century mark readings and potential Heat
Advisories. Into Thursday, the high starts to elongate on a west-
east axis with pressure rises towards the west coast. Pressure
heights will not change much over NM, and a near persistence
forecast should suffice with hot temperatures and similar POP
trends again.

Westerlies over the northern and central Rockies will strengthen
into Thursday, sending a trough into the upper midwest on Friday,
and this will usher a front toward northeast NM either Friday or
Friday night. This would lead to some moisture and surface
convergence in the northeast where additional storms would
potentially initiate, particularly into Friday night. This front
would offer slight temperature relief to eastern zones too going
into Saturday. The upper high would be sliding northwest toward
the Great Basin Saturday and Sunday, and this would open the door
to another front via northwest flow aloft late next weekend. Once
again, moisture and storm chances would increase in the
northeastern zones with a few more degrees of cooling there.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023

Areas of MVFR cigs over ne and east central NM to continue slowly
eroding/lifting through 21Z. Upper high center to remain over
sw/south central NM during the next 18 hours with mid level
moisture circulating into the swrn quarter of NM. While the Four
Corners should be mostly clear, sct-bkn high based cumulus mainly
from the Contdvd to the central mt chain aft 20Z to result in wdly
sct dry showers with gusty erratic winds or short lived tstms
until around sunset, especially along and south of I-40. Short
term models are not enthusiastic about generating convection from
the east slopes of the central mt chain over the ern plains but
can't rule out isold cells especially south of I-40. Low level
moisture to surge back into ern NM aft 10/03Z with areas of MVFR
cigs/vsbys in br between 10/10-15Z. Low level moisture may also
leak into the KSAF vcnty but not confident any low clouds will
develop there.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023

Hot and dry is the rule through the next few days with the upper
high centered over southern NM. Highs will top out in the low 100s
in lower elevations areas of the Rio Grande Valley. The exception
will be the northeastern plains and highlands today and Monday. With
the upper high over the state and an overall lack of monsoon
moisture penetrating into the state, afternoon storms will be
sparse. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will favor the
Gila NF and south-central mountains today through Wednesday.
Scattered to numerous coverage will favor the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains eastward Monday afternoon and evening where a few of these
storms could become severe. The upper high flattens Thursday,
redeveloping over central CA by the end of the work week. This
pattern will favor backdoor fronts bringing in cooler and more moist
airmasses into the eastern half of the state next weekend. The west
will remain mostly dry with bouts of elevated fire weather due to
the warm, dry, and breezy conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  97  62  95  60 /   0   5   5   0
Dulce...........................  92  50  90  49 /   0   5  10   5
Cuba............................  92  59  90  59 /   0  10  10  20
Gallup..........................  94  57  94  57 /   5  10  10  10
El Morro........................  89  57  90  56 /   5  20  20  20
Grants..........................  95  56  93  56 /   5  10  20  20
Quemado.........................  91  60  90  58 /  30  30  40  40
Magdalena.......................  94  68  91  66 /  10  20  40  30
Datil...........................  90  62  88  60 /  20  20  40  30
Reserve.........................  97  53  95  55 /  20  30  40  30
Glenwood........................ 101  63 101  69 /  20  30  30  30
Chama...........................  86  50  85  50 /   0   0  20  10
Los Alamos......................  91  66  88  66 /   0  10  20  20
Pecos...........................  91  61  90  61 /   0  10  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  88  49  85  49 /   0   5  30  20
Red River.......................  84  47  80  46 /   5  10  40  20
Angel Fire......................  82  42  80  41 /   5  10  50  20
Taos............................  92  53  90  52 /   0   5  20  20
Mora............................  88  54  87  55 /  10  20  50  20
Espanola........................  99  61  96  60 /   0  10  10  20
Santa Fe........................  92  65  90  64 /   0  10  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  95  61  93  62 /   0  10  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  99  72  98  70 /   0  10  10  20
Albuquerque Heights............. 100  70  98  72 /   0  10  10  20
Albuquerque Valley.............. 102  69 100  67 /   0  10  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100  71  99  69 /   0  10  10  20
Belen........................... 102  66 101  67 /   0  10  10  20
Bernalillo...................... 102  69 100  68 /   0  10  10  20
Bosque Farms.................... 102  65 100  66 /   0  10  10  20
Corrales........................ 102  70 100  69 /   0  10  10  20
Los Lunas....................... 102  66 101  67 /   0  10  10  20
Placitas........................  98  69  96  68 /   0  10  10  20
Rio Rancho...................... 101  70  99  69 /   0  10  10  20
Socorro......................... 103  73 102  71 /   0  10  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  92  64  90  65 /   0  10  10  20
Tijeras.........................  94  65  93  66 /   0  10  10  20
Edgewood........................  94  59  93  61 /   0  10  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  56  94  57 /   5  10  20  20
Clines Corners..................  91  59  90  61 /   5  10  20  30
Mountainair.....................  94  62  93  63 /   5  10  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  94  63  94  63 /   5  10  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  99  70  98  69 /   5  10  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  89  64  89  61 /  30  10  40  30
Capulin.........................  79  58  85  57 /  10  10  50  20
Raton...........................  86  58  87  55 /  10  10  40  20
Springer........................  87  60  90  56 /  10  10  50  20
Las Vegas.......................  90  58  90  59 /  10  10  60  20
Clayton.........................  77  62  88  63 /   5  10  30  20
Roy.............................  82  61  88  59 /  10  10  40  20
Conchas.........................  89  66  95  66 /   0  10  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  92  66  93  66 /   5  10  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  88  65  94  67 /   0   5  30  30
Clovis..........................  94  66  97  67 /   0  10  30  40
Portales........................  97  67 101  69 /   0   5  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  97  69  98  68 /   0   5  20  30
Roswell......................... 106  76 105  75 /   0   5  20  20
Picacho.........................  97  66  98  68 /  10   5  30  30
Elk.............................  95  63  95  65 /  30   5  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219-220-238.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...99