Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1124 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will be focused over central
and eastern New Mexico today and tonight, with the potential for
isolated strong to severe storms over eastern New Mexico. Drier air
makes significant progress over most of the region Thursday through
the weekend, but moisture will linger over northeast New Mexico
where thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds increase Sunday
through Tuesday with potential for critical fire weather conditions
Monday and Tuesday. Despite the drier air, high temperatures will
remain several degrees below normal for early to mid June.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023

The downward trend in storm coverage begins today, but will become
even more apparent on Thursday. The upper low over the west coast
will shift slightly eastward today, allowing for a mid level dry
slot to punch into western NM. Dewpoints this morning across western
NM remain well above normal after the heavy rainfall across north
central NM pushed a boundary westward last evening. These dewpoints
should mix out quickly, but typically, we do see storms develop on
the mid level moisture gradient where enough instability exists.
There will be plenty of instability this afternoon once the mid and
high level clouds shift eastward, thus a few storms are likely to
develop from the San Mateo Mtns in Socorro Co northward to Mount
Taylor and the Northwest Highlands by mid afternoon. These storms
will shift east or northeast into the Rio Grande Valley, but will
struggle to persist past 6pm local. Meanwhile, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms remain on tap across eastern NM today.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along or near the
Central Mountain Chain by early to mid afternoon before shifting
eastward. A Flood Watch was issued for the HPCC and McBride burn
scars once again given yesterday's rainfall on each scar and above
normal PWAT persisting. However, it's possible that the heaviest
rain may be just off each burn scar to the northeast based on the
latest CAMs. In addition to heavy rainfall concerns, severe weather
is again a possibility across eastern NM. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts are the main threats. Storms may be a bit more organized
than yesterday though shear values overall remain relatively weak.
Models suggest that northeast NM and portions of southeast NM will
be at the greatest risk for all hazards. Storms should shift into
west Texas by the midnight hour if not sooner, then a quiet night
will be in store.

The mid level dry slot will continue to shift eastward across NM on
Thursday, substantially reducing precipitation chances areawide. The
best chances for storms on Thursday will be across northeast NM
along a weak surface boundary. Elsewhere, a return to normal June-
like weather will be in store with humidity values dropping below 15
percent for most areas. Less cloud cover and precipitation will also
mean temperatures will begin to trend upward as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Dry southwest winds aloft dominate Thursday night and Friday.
Forecast PWATs increase Friday night and Saturday as mid level
moisture advects across the region with apparently little impact
then decrease again thereafter. Northeast NM still appears to be the
featured area for any storms Friday through Monday as low level
moisture slops in and out of that area on a daily basis. Southwest
surface winds strengthen Sunday through Monday and become more
westerly Tuesday while increasing a notch as the upper air pattern
evolves into west to northwest flow aloft. This would also spread
low pops along our northern border with Colorado. Despite the drier
airmass in place across the majority of the forecast area, high
temperatures will continue to be several degrees below normal during
the Friday through Tuesday period although Roswell may warm close to
the century mark on Monday. Overnight lows will also be near to
below normal for most locales.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Drier swly winds will punch into the southwestern half of the
state today, shutting down most afternoon convection there.
Scattered to numerous afternoon ts activity will thus look to
initially focus over the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mts near
18Z to 19Z before moving E to NE over the adjacent high plains.
These storms will steadily progress east to the TX border near 00Z
to 02Z. Given the expected nely to ely storm tracks, KLVS was left
with a vcsh for this TAF period. Amds may be needed to add back in
ts if cells initiate further south along the Sangre de Cristo Mts
than what is currently expected. Also added in vcsh mention at
KFMN-KABQ-KAEG-KSAF given latest guidance showing potential for
hi-based virga shras producing erratic gusty winds near these
terminals during the late afternoon period. Conditions clear out
with mostly light and terrain driven winds overnight into Thursday
morning. There is a low forecast confidence change for IFR/MVFR
cigs to develop over parts of the eastern plains Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023

One more day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms,
then drier air will overtake the area. A mid level dry slot will
reduce storm coverage across western NM today, but storms capable of
heavy rainfall will remain possible across portions of central and
eastern NM. The dry slot will punch through NM on Thursday,
eliminating precipitation chances across all but northeast NM.
Humidity values will plummet across central and western areas below
15 percent with plenty of sunshine. This will be the story Friday
through early next week as well - the potential for a few showers
and thunderstorms across northeast NM while areas elsewhere will be
dry with low RH. A few breezes are possible Thursday through
Saturday, but stronger winds will return early next week. Breezy to
locally windy conditions are expected Sunday across central and
western NM, then wind speeds trend upward slightly Monday and
Tuesday. Critical fire weather conditions may return Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  80  46  82  45 /  30   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  73  39  77  37 /  50  20   0   0
Cuba............................  75  43  77  44 /  50  10   0   0
Gallup..........................  78  36  79  37 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  74  37  75  38 /  10   0   0   0
Grants..........................  78  38  80  40 /  20   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  76  40  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  77  48  80  50 /  30   5   0   0
Datil...........................  75  42  78  44 /  10   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  80  38  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  83  46  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  67  37  71  36 /  70  20   5   0
Los Alamos......................  72  50  74  48 /  40  10   5   0
Pecos...........................  72  46  76  46 /  40  10   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  68  39  72  38 /  60  30  20   5
Red River.......................  64  35  68  34 /  70  30  30   5
Angel Fire......................  65  32  69  33 /  70  20  20   5
Taos............................  73  39  77  40 /  50  20  10   0
Mora............................  69  42  73  42 /  60  20  20   5
Espanola........................  80  48  83  43 /  40  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  74  48  78  48 /  40  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  77  46  83  47 /  40  10   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  55  83  54 /  30  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  56  85  56 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  51  86  49 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  54  85  55 /  20  10   0   0
Belen...........................  86  53  87  55 /  20   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  83  52  86  52 /  20  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  84  50  86  51 /  20   5   0   0
Corrales........................  83  53  86  53 /  20  10   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  85  52  86  53 /  20   5   0   0
Placitas........................  79  52  83  52 /  20  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  82  54  84  54 /  20  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  86  54  88  57 /  20   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  48  76  48 /  30  10   0   0
Tijeras.........................  76  49  78  49 /  30  10   0   0
Edgewood........................  75  46  78  47 /  30  10   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  41  80  45 /  30  10   0   0
Clines Corners..................  73  46  77  47 /  30  20   0   0
Mountainair.....................  76  47  79  49 /  30  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  76  48  79  51 /  30  10   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  80  55  84  57 /  30  10   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  73  48  77  51 /  60  10   0   0
Capulin.........................  73  47  74  48 /  70  40  40  30
Raton...........................  75  46  79  46 /  80  30  30  20
Springer........................  76  47  80  46 /  70  20  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  74  44  78  45 /  50  20  10   5
Clayton.........................  77  53  79  54 /  50  40  20  20
Roy.............................  74  49  77  49 /  50  30  20  10
Conchas.........................  82  55  85  53 /  30  40   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  79  53  83  53 /  40  20   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  80  55  84  55 /  30  40   0   0
Clovis..........................  80  55  86  56 /  30  50   0   0
Portales........................  83  56  87  57 /  40  50   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  82  56  86  56 /  40  30   0   0
Roswell.........................  89  57  94  60 /  50  30   0   0
Picacho.........................  82  53  87  57 /  60  10   0   0
Elk.............................  80  51  84  54 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-226.

&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...24

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
748 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Flash Flood      2 NNW Mineral Hill      35.64N 105.42W
06/06/2023                   San Miguel         NM   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Local Volunteer Fire Dept. relayed reports
            of burn scar flash flooding. Debris and
            water over roadways in and around Cabo
            Lucero. No damage to structures. Timing
            estimated and based on radar.

&&

RJH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
852 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     Hail             Mineral Hill            35.61N 105.40W
06/06/2023  M1.00 inch       San Miguel         NM   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Fire Dept. in Cabo Lucero relayed secondary
            reports of quarter size hail and accumulated
            hail 4 to 6 inches deep. Location estimated
            to be at Mineral Hill based on radar. There
            was secondary reports of hail damage of
            knocked out windows as well.

&&