Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
510 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across western and northern New
Mexico will fizzle out around midnight. Warmer temperatures are
expected on Sunday with another round of afternoon thunderstorms.
Localized heavy rainfall will be possible with any cells that do
develop, increasing the risk for burn scar flash flooding.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible each day of the
work week, favoring the high terrain. Temperatures will be below
normal Sunday and Monday, trending near seasonal averages for the
rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 323 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023

Flow around a weak closed low over southern AZ is providing a bit of
a boost to today's round of convection. Storm motion in western and
central NM has increased today, with shower and storm movement to
the northeast ranging from 20-25 kts. Effective bulk shear continues
to remain just a tad too low for more organized thunderstorms in
western NM. Latest SPC mesoanalysis showing effective bulk shear is
mostly below 30kts areawide. The shear is just high enough and with
plentiful low and mid level moisture in place, a quasi-line of
moderately strong thunderstorms will likely remain in tact as they
move into the RGV. Hail, wet microbursts and strong outflow winds
are the most likely threats from this line as it translates east-
northeastward later this afternoon and evening. Models agree this
line will continue to propagate through about midnight before
dissipating.

Showers and storms shift focus to northern and eastern NM Sunday
afternoon and evening. Models continue to retrograde the above
mentioned low over AZ as well as a weak low over CO. The CO low is
forecast to retrograde as well, resulting in more showers and storms
for northern and eastern NM. Effective bulk shear remains a limiter
Sunday with brief strong storm possible but likely not severe for
more than a brief time given that the flow aloft is not
northwesterly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023

Disorganized pattern continues to reign supreme in the long term.
Predominantly zonal flow aloft will allow for some drying on Monday,
bringing near record PWATs down to 0.3 and 0.5 inches across most
locales. This will have a major hand in limiting afternoon
convection to the recycled moisture of the high terrain. The trend
will continue into Tuesday as weak high pressure builds over NM.
With the rise in pressure heights, locales areawide will see an
increase to daytime highs of a few degrees compared to Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms will favor the northern Sangre de
Cristos in the afternoon. A slug of Gulf moisture begins to run up
the spine of the upper level ridge on Thursday, allowing for an
increase of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the
centrals mts and eastward. Meanwhile, an upper level trough begins
to push inland from the Pacific. The ridge will begin breaking
down Thursday night into Friday. Model consistency at this point
becomes lackluster regarding the evolution of the disturbance. The
GFS brings the upper low quickly across the northern border of
the Desert Southwest, swinging it into CO by Sunday morning. The
ECMWF presents a slower solution, transitioning the low into an
open wave in the Great Basin around the same timeframe. The
discrepancies of the system's timing make for a challenging
forecast towards the end of the long term. The faster version
would bringer stronger winds to northern and central NM Saturday.
Overall, did not stray too far from the NBM, making minor
adjustments to winds in the Friday to Saturday timeframe.
Temperatures start out below normal on Monday, but warm with the
upper level ridge on Tuesday. Temperatures will then trend
generally near normal through the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023

Weak upper low over AZ embedded in a weak trough extending newd into
CO continues to drift nwd. Sct showers and tstms over northern NM
and through the RGV and central mt chain at 23Z to continue moving
ne to east. Brief hail, locally heavy rain and variable wind gusts
to around 40kt are possible with the stronger storms as well as lcl
MVFR cigs/vsbys obscuring higher terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023

More daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will continue most areas Sunday, shifting to northern
and eastern NM Monday and Tuesday. Drier air moves into the southern
half or so of the state both days on increasing southwest winds. The
increased winds in western and central areas Thursday through
Saturday are the result of high pressure building overhead. This
ridge shifts east of NM Thursday through Saturday with dry air
moving into western and central NM and dryline thunderstorms east, a
pattern much more like typical May weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  76  50  78 /  20  40  20  30
Dulce...........................  39  72  39  72 /  20  70  30  60
Cuba............................  45  70  45  72 /  30  70  40  50
Gallup..........................  42  72  42  75 /  40  50  20  30
El Morro........................  43  70  43  71 /  40  60  30  40
Grants..........................  40  73  41  75 /  40  60  30  40
Quemado.........................  43  72  44  74 /  50  50  30  40
Magdalena.......................  47  71  49  74 /  50  60  30  50
Datil...........................  45  69  46  72 /  40  60  30  40
Reserve.........................  39  77  40  78 /  30  50  10  20
Glenwood........................  51  81  53  83 /  30  40  10  20
Chama...........................  37  66  37  66 /  30  80  50  70
Los Alamos......................  48  68  49  69 /  30  80  50  60
Pecos...........................  46  70  46  70 /  30  80  50  70
Cerro/Questa....................  45  65  44  65 /  30  70  40  80
Red River.......................  39  60  37  58 /  40  90  60  80
Angel Fire......................  34  62  35  63 /  30  90  60  80
Taos............................  40  71  39  71 /  20  70  30  70
Mora............................  42  68  40  67 /  20  80  50  70
Espanola........................  48  76  48  75 /  20  70  40  60
Santa Fe........................  49  71  49  70 /  30  80  50  60
Santa Fe Airport................  47  74  47  74 /  30  70  40  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  78  55  77 /  30  50  50  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  79  54  79 /  30  50  40  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  81  51  82 /  30  50  40  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  80  52  79 /  30  50  40  40
Belen...........................  50  81  50  82 /  40  50  30  40
Bernalillo......................  53  81  53  79 /  30  50  40  40
Bosque Farms....................  50  81  49  82 /  40  50  40  40
Corrales........................  53  81  52  80 /  30  50  40  40
Los Lunas.......................  51  81  51  82 /  40  50  40  40
Placitas........................  52  76  53  76 /  30  50  40  40
Rio Rancho......................  53  79  53  78 /  30  50  40  40
Socorro.........................  52  81  53  83 /  50  50  40  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  70  49  71 /  40  60  50  50
Tijeras.........................  46  73  46  74 /  40  50  50  50
Edgewood........................  42  73  42  74 /  30  50  50  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  74  41  76 /  30  50  40  50
Clines Corners..................  45  71  44  72 /  40  50  50  60
Mountainair.....................  45  73  45  75 /  40  40  40  50
Gran Quivira....................  46  73  47  75 /  50  50  40  60
Carrizozo.......................  52  78  54  80 /  40  50  30  40
Ruidoso.........................  47  70  47  73 /  40  60  40  40
Capulin.........................  43  68  43  67 /  50  80  30  70
Raton...........................  43  73  42  73 /  40  80  30  60
Springer........................  44  75  43  74 /  30  80  30  60
Las Vegas.......................  45  72  44  72 /  20  80  40  60
Clayton.........................  50  76  50  74 /  50  70  50  50
Roy.............................  47  74  47  73 /  20  80  40  60
Conchas.........................  52  82  52  82 /  10  70  50  50
Santa Rosa......................  51  79  50  79 /  10  60  50  40
Tucumcari.......................  54  81  52  82 /   5  50  60  40
Clovis..........................  55  77  53  82 /   5  50  60  40
Portales........................  54  79  52  84 /   5  40  50  40
Fort Sumner.....................  53  81  52  83 /   5  50  50  40
Roswell.........................  58  85  57  89 /  10  50  30  30
Picacho.........................  50  76  50  81 /  20  60  30  40
Elk.............................  47  75  47  79 /  30  60  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...99

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
302 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023

NMZ219-202130-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
302 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
VALENCIA AND BERNALILLO COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM MDT...

At 302 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Isleta Pueblo, or 10 miles northwest of Los Lunas,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Albuquerque, Isleta Pueblo and South Valley.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 143 and 154.
 Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 209 and 222.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 10683 3493 10700 3518 10680 3500 10656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 221DEG 14KT 3493 10686

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MDT SAT MAY 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             1 NNE SOCORRO           34.07N 106.90W
05/20/2023  E1.00 INCH       SOCORRO            NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ANM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
356 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023

NMZ224-202230-
South Central Highlands-
356 PM MDT Sat May 20 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOCORRO
AND SOUTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 356 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Abo, or 35 miles southeast of Belen, moving northeast
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Abo.

This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 196 and 201.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 10646 3451 10630 3451 10629 3432 10607
      3419 10632
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 227DEG 8KT 3431 10633

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12

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