Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
332 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

Showers and storms are expected to last through most of the
overnight hours across eastern NM with a moderate threat for flash
flooding. Slightly drier air will reduce the coverage of showers and
storms over eastern NM tomorrow with maybe a slight uptick on Friday
due to a disturbance over northern Mexico. Better moisture and
shower and storm chances look to spread west this weekend behind a
backdoor cold front continuing into early next week as the storm
system moves east into southern California. Drier air looks to
scour out the moisture and resultant shower and storm chances
across western NM mid to late next week. With the cloud cover and
showers and storms, temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below
early June normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

The second round of convection has begun with scattered to numerous
strong and severe storms spreading across central and southeast NM.
The bulk of the first round has moved eastward into Texas although
the lingering clouds may delay convection across the east-central
and northeast plains. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for
most of southeast NM with large hail and damaging winds being the
main threats although an isolated tornado is possible as well.
Current mesoanalysis indicates that instability is maximized over
the Roosevelt County where SB CAPE is in excess of 3500 J/Kg.
Meanwhile, bulk shear up to 50 knots is maximized further west over
Torrance county. Initially discrete cells will begin to merge later
this afternoon and evening, particularly across the east-central and
northeast where flash flooding will be a concern through the early
morning hours. Convective outflows from storms in eastern NM will
once again generate an east canyon wind in the ABQ and Santa Fe
Metros. Guidance shows the gusty east winds to developing late this
evening and persisting into the early morning hours with the exact
timing dependent on the timing of convection. Short-term guidance
also indicates that yet another round of convection may develop late
tonight across the east-central plains and persist past sunrise.
Steady rainfall will create a broad swath of low ceilings across
the eastern plains tonight with the low clouds potentially moving
southward into the vicinity of Roswell.

Storm coverage is expected to decrease tomorrow as the upper-level
low moves over the Four Corners region and drier air infiltrates
from the west. Convection will be focused over the high terrain of
northern NM during the afternoon then shift eastward into the
northeast during the evening into the early overnight hours.
Convection will likely start later than today since it should take
some time for clouds to clear up across the east. High temps
tomorrow will once again be 5-10 degrees below average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

The aforementioned upper low in the short term will be filling in
over the central Rockies during the day Friday. Subtle
disturbances rotating around it will maintain a chance for showers
and storms across northern NM during the afternoon and evening
hours. Dry southwest flow south of the low will keep central,
southwestern and south central areas dry. It will also try to push
the dryline towards the TX/NM border. Meanwhile, a shortwave will
ride along the subtropical jetstream through Sonora and Chihuahua
Mexico. The question is will this shortwave time up with the
better moisture and dynamics across southeastern NM ahead of the
dryline before it pushes east into Texas. Models have storm
initiation right along the border growing upscale in West Texas.
However, given recent model bias, and antecedent wet soil
conditions, would not be surprised if the dryline and storm
initiation stays further back to the west. Any storm that does
develop will be capable of becoming strong to severe with 0-6 km
bulk shear of 20 to 30 kts and SBCAPE values in excess of 2000
J/kg. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.
Flash flooding will also be a threat given the wet soils across
Curry and Roosevelt Counties.

For Saturday, the broad upper low will still be over the central
Rockies with shortwave rotating around the southern base. Shower
and storm chances will favor areas along and north of I-40 where
the better mid and low level moisture will reside. A backdoor cold
front, which will reinforced by convective outflow, looks to
enter northeast NM late Saturday early Sunday spreading better
moisture in the form of 0.50 to 0.80 in PWATS southwest into more
of central and western NM, increasing shower and storm chances in
this region as a result. By Monday, upper level ridging will
develop over the desert southwest in response to an upper level
low pushing east into southern California. Moisture will still be
present so showers and storms are still possible across most of
the region with northeast NM being favored. A storm across the
northeast may become strong to severe thanks to the notorious
northwest flow on the periphery of the upper ridge. Showers and
storms are favored areawide on Tuesday as moisture increases ahead
of upper low over southern CA. PWATS will be near 0.50 inches
across western areas increasing to near an inch along the NM/TX
border. All the burn scars, especially HPCC and McBride, along
with northeast and east central NM will need to be watched for
flash flooding concerns. Drier air looks to eventually enter from
the southwest beginning Wednesday slowly spreading northeast by
late week as the upper low weakens and opens up over the Great
Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will create visibility
reductions and MVFR/IFR ceilings this afternoon through the
overnight, particularly in eastern NM. Strong to severe storms
may create damaging wind gusts and large hail east of the central
mountain chain while isolated to scattered showers in central and
western NM may create locally gusty and erratic wind gusts.
Intermittent IFR ceilings are likely between 09Z to 15Z in
eastern NM generally along and north of I-40, although these
ceiling reductions are possible as far south as KROW. Convective
outflows will generate an east canyon wind that will affect KABQ
and KSAF after around 06Z tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

Red Flag Warning is on track to expire at 8 PM this evening. An
upper-level low will shift eastward into the Four Corners region
tomorrow, allowing for drier air to infiltrate from the west with
breezy southerly winds developing. Elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions are briefly possible in eastern Socorro County
with winds being the limiting factor for more widespread critical
conditions. Over the next several days, moisture will remain in
place across northern and eastern NM, allowing scattered to
numerous showers and storms to develop each afternoon and evening.
Central and western NM will not be as moist, however generally
light winds will prevail and therefore limit fire weather
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  48  75  46  75 /  30  10   5  20
Dulce...........................  40  71  36  68 /  50  50   5  40
Cuba............................  44  70  42  69 /  40  20   0  30
Gallup..........................  38  71  39  72 /   5   5   5  20
El Morro........................  39  68  40  68 /   5   0   5  20
Grants..........................  39  74  39  72 /   5   5   0  20
Quemado.........................  39  72  42  72 /   0   0   5  10
Magdalena.......................  47  75  50  73 /   0   0   5  10
Datil...........................  41  71  44  71 /   0   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  34  75  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  46  79  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  38  65  35  62 /  80  50  10  50
Los Alamos......................  51  70  49  67 /  40  20   5  30
Pecos...........................  48  71  46  69 /  40  40   5  30
Cerro/Questa....................  42  66  40  63 /  60  50  10  50
Red River.......................  37  60  35  58 /  60  60  20  60
Angel Fire......................  35  63  33  62 /  60  60  20  50
Taos............................  40  71  38  69 /  50  40  10  30
Mora............................  43  67  42  66 /  50  50  20  40
Espanola........................  49  78  47  75 /  30  20   5  20
Santa Fe........................  50  73  49  70 /  30  30   5  30
Santa Fe Airport................  49  76  46  73 /  20  20   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  78  57  76 /  20   5   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  79  54  77 /  10   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  83  53  81 /  10   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  81  54  79 /  20   5   0  10
Belen...........................  53  83  52  81 /   5   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  55  81  53  80 /  20  10   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  51  83  50  81 /  10   0   0  10
Corrales........................  55  82  54  80 /  20   5   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  52  83  51  81 /   5   0   0  10
Placitas........................  54  78  53  76 /  20  10   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  55  80  54  78 /  20   5   0  10
Socorro.........................  54  84  55  82 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  71  49  70 /  20  10   0  10
Tijeras.........................  50  74  50  72 /  20   5   0  10
Edgewood........................  49  74  48  72 /  20  10   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  75  42  74 /  20  10   0  10
Clines Corners..................  47  71  45  71 /  30  10   0  10
Mountainair.....................  48  75  48  74 /  10   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  48  76  49  75 /  10   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  55  80  55  80 /  10   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  48  73  48  73 /  10   0   0   5
Capulin.........................  47  67  46  69 /  50  40  20  30
Raton...........................  47  72  45  73 /  50  50  20  30
Springer........................  49  73  48  74 /  60  50  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  47  71  44  71 /  60  50  10  30
Clayton.........................  53  71  53  76 /  70  50  20  20
Roy.............................  50  69  50  72 /  80  70  20  20
Conchas.........................  54  78  53  80 /  80  50  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  54  77  51  78 /  60  40   5  20
Tucumcari.......................  53  76  51  79 /  80  50  10  30
Clovis..........................  55  78  53  77 /  70  50   0  40
Portales........................  56  81  54  78 /  60  40   5  40
Fort Sumner.....................  56  83  53  82 /  60  40   0  20
Roswell.........................  63  92  61  90 /  30   0   0  10
Picacho.........................  55  84  54  82 /  20   0   0   5
Elk.............................  49  80  50  79 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ230>232-234>236.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106-109.

Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-227>229.

&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
412 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

NMZ211-312245-
Jemez Mountains-
412 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL RIO
ARRIBA AND NORTHEASTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 412 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fenton Lake State Park, or 13 miles east of Cuba, moving northeast at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Rio
Arriba and northeastern Sandoval Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3618 10664 3617 10665 3617 10666 3615 10665
      3616 10663 3616 10661 3617 10660 3614 10640
      3587 10667 3593 10685 3619 10669
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 207DEG 25KT 3595 10672

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MA/RH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
428 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     Hail             2 N Chilili             34.93N 106.23W
05/31/2023  E1.00 inch       Bernalillo         NM   Trained Spotter

&&

MBD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
429 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     Hail             2 N Chilili             34.93N 106.23W
05/31/2023  E1.00 inch       Bernalillo         NM   Trained Spotter

&&

MBD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
435 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     Hail             4 W Fort Sumner State M 34.41N 104.27W
05/31/2023  E0.75 inch       De Baca            NM   Storm Chaser

&&

RJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
442 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

NMZ234>237-312315-
Roosevelt County-Curry County-Quay County-De Baca County-
442 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
ROOSEVELT, NORTHEASTERN DE BACA, SOUTHWESTERN QUAY AND WESTERN CURRY
COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 441 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Taiban, or 8 miles east of Fort Sumner, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Sumner, Melrose, House, Tolar and Taiban.

This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 331 and 361.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3443 10362 3430 10404 3449 10422 3482 10407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 233DEG 18KT 3447 10409

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shoemake

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