Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
612 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

Severe weather expected again this afternoon across portions of
eastern New Mexico. Cloud-to-ground lightning, large hail,
damaging winds, and flash flooding will be possible. Western
locales can expect dry conditions through much of the week.
Thunderstorm activity becomes less robust on Sunday through
Tuesday before trending back up Wednesday and Thursday for the
eastern plains. Breezy conditions return to central areas on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be near to below normal through the
forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

Low level moisture has mixed out through much of the Rio Grande
Valley this afternoon with the main area of convection stretched
over the Northeast to Central Highlands and southward. This was
propagating northeastward with low level southeast winds across the
east central and southeast plains where a severe thunderstorm watch
is in place. The HRRR indicates the low level moisture will push
westward again tonight and into the Rio Grande Valley at Albuquerque
and Santa Fe and potentially into central Socorro county as well so
there may be a few hours this evening when a gusty east to southeast
wind is observed but it may become more northerly as the night
progresses. Models indicate the dryline will retreat farther to the
east on Sunday than it has recently as drier air aloft is expected
to make more progress into the state Sunday, although the Day 2 SPC
outlook has the marginal risk area over a smaller portion of eastern
NM with only a sliver of Union county in the slight risk area.
Convection is also indicated to fade away by late evening on Sunday.
Lows as well as high temperatures will be near to slightly cooler
than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

Ridging amplifies over New Mexico to start off the long term as a
deep upper level low begins to flirt with the SoCal coast. This
will work to take the previous daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms back down to an isolated threat on Monday and
Tuesday. Previously favorable forcing will be absent in the
presence of upper level high pressure. What activity does initiate
will favor northeastern NM and will be greatly dependent on
orographics alongside moisture slosh from the dryline.

The aforementioned upper low pushes into the Desert Southwest
Tuesday night, allowing southwest flow aloft to strengthen once
again. This feature will work to enhance upper level forcing and
instability as it careens into the state Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, the dryline will recede well into eastern NM, creating
a favorable environment for strong to severe storms once again
Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Timing on the upper low has yet
to reach agreement across models, and its evolution and departure
from Thursday afternoon forward is still unclear. The ECMWF and
CMC both show a slower progression than the GFS. Where the GFS
swings the low into CO Thursday, the others suggest it will fall
into an open wave. These differences don't necessarily thwart this
forecaster's confidence that a very unsettled couple days may be
in store across the east midweek. After that, however, confidence
lowers as the upper level features become messy and disorganized
across guidance. The GFS brings another low hot on the previous
low's heels Thursday evening, a trend somewhat echoed by the CMC.
This would result in a more favorable setup for an additional day
of severe weather Friday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF tries to develop an
almost Fujiwhara situation, allowing the two disturbances to
tango in and around the Great Basin. This dance would lead to a
much drier solution for NM. These discrepancies have caused a low
confidence forecast into the weekend and therefore, did not
deviate much from the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

Mesoscale models show scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms continuing over eastern areas for much of the
night, some of which may turn severe with large hail, damaging
winds, very heavy rain, and a risk of tornadoes. The favored
location after midnight should be north of I-40. Areas of MVFR and
IFR conditions in low clouds and patchy fog are again expected
east of the central mountain chain late tonight into Sunday
morning, as well as in Santa Fe. Drier air will move into the
state from the southwest on Sunday with a downtick in coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. Isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon and early evening
on the eastern plains, a few of which may turn severe with large
hail and damaging winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

An active pattern of showers and storms will continue over eastern
NM with daily rounds of locally heavy rainfall through Sunday. Drier
weather expected Monday and Tuesday under a ridge of high pressure
with northeast NM becoming the focus area for any convection.
Localized elevated to near critical conditions are possible Monday
and Tuesday mainly along and west of the Continental Divide, as high
Haines is widespread along with poor overnight humidity recovery and
sub 10 percent daytime humidities. However widespread strong winds
are not forecast.

By the middle of next week, low level moisture will begin to slosh
back and forth again with another upper trough to our west, leading
to more active showers and storms central and east for the rest of
next week. However, localized critical conditions may persist along
and west of the Continental Divide where drier air remains
entrenched.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  43  82  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  35  77  37  78 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  42  76  44  79 /  10   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  37  79  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  38  75  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  38  80  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  42  78  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  51  79  49  81 /  10  10   0   0
Datil...........................  44  76  44  78 /   5   5   0   0
Reserve.........................  43  81  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  53  85  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  34  71  36  71 /  10   5   0   5
Los Alamos......................  47  76  48  75 /  20   5   0   5
Pecos...........................  44  75  46  77 /  20  10   5  10
Cerro/Questa....................  37  75  37  72 /  10  10   5  20
Red River.......................  34  65  34  66 /  20  10   5  20
Angel Fire......................  33  67  32  69 /  30  10  10  20
Taos............................  39  76  39  77 /  10   5   0  10
Mora............................  41  73  41  74 /  40  20  10  20
Espanola........................  42  81  42  84 /  10   5   0   5
Santa Fe........................  47  76  48  79 /  20  10   5  10
Santa Fe Airport................  46  80  46  81 /  10   5   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  81  54  83 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  83  55  84 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  84  49  88 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  84  53  86 /  10   5   0   0
Belen...........................  56  87  53  88 /  10   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  51  84  51  87 /  10   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  52  86  50  88 /  10   5   0   0
Corrales........................  52  84  52  86 /  10   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  54  86  52  88 /  10   5   0   0
Placitas........................  51  81  51  83 /  10   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  53  83  53  85 /  10   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  58  88  55  90 /  10  10   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  76  48  77 /  10   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  48  78  49  79 /  10   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  46  78  46  79 /  10   5   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  79  43  81 /  10  10   0   5
Clines Corners..................  46  75  46  77 /  30  10   5  10
Mountainair.....................  49  78  48  81 /  20  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  50  79  49  81 /  20  20   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  56  82  54  85 /  20  20   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  50  73  49  78 /  30  30  10   5
Capulin.........................  47  73  45  74 /  40  20  10  40
Raton...........................  45  78  44  80 /  40  20  10  30
Springer........................  45  77  44  81 /  30  20  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  44  75  43  78 /  30  20  10  20
Clayton.........................  53  77  52  79 /  30  30  20  20
Roy.............................  49  76  47  78 /  40  20  10  20
Conchas.........................  51  80  49  85 /  40  20  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  52  81  50  83 /  50  20   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  55  81  53  83 /  30  30  10  10
Clovis..........................  55  78  54  83 /  50  40  20  10
Portales........................  56  80  55  85 /  40  40  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  56  83  53  87 /  40  30  10  10
Roswell.........................  60  87  57  92 /  40  30  20   5
Picacho.........................  54  80  52  85 /  50  40  10  10
Elk.............................  52  77  50  82 /  40  30  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ231-232-234>236.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...44

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