Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
605 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023

Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be
severe, will continue with cooler than normal temperatures along
and east of the central mountain chain through at least Saturday
and possibly also Sunday. Meanwhile, gusty and dry weather with
temperatures near and above normal are expected over western
areas, except for a spotty mix of wet and dry thunderstorms over
the upper Rio Grande Valley, northwest mountains, and northwest
highlands. After a downtick in thunderstorm coverage and warmer
temperatures early next week, gusty showers and thunderstorms may
increase in coverage again across much of the forecast area on
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023

A low amplitude ridge will pump up over the area tonight, then
shift slowly eastward through early Friday morning as a deepening
trough over the Great Basin and Desert SW gradually moves east as
well. The result is deepening Gulf moisture across eastern NM with
increasing shear and instability, mostly from daytime heating.
The SPC has upgraded the slight risk for much of the eastern
plains to an enhanced risk, with other portions of the plains and
highlands remaining in a slight risk for severe storms. Both
instability and shear have upticked compared to yesterday, with
much of the eastern plains now forecast to reach 0-6km bulk shear
of 40-50kts and sbCAPE values of 2500-3000J/kg. The most recent
NAM continues to show organization into a MCS later this evening
and continuing overnight across the TX Panhandle and far eastern
NM. The latest HRRR and HREF are similar, but confine thunderstorm
impacts beyond midnight to an area from Tucumcari to Portales.
Outflow is forecast to surge west overnight and result in an east
canyon/gap wind into the RGV from Santa Fe south through
Albuquerque, with gusts to between 30-35mph likely. Given
sufficient clearing tonight, areas of low stratus are likely
along/east of the central mountain chain early Thursday morning
and patchy fog is possible. The 12Z model solutions are showing a
later start to convection on Thursday afternoon with a little less
instability than today and both the latest NAM and GFS are
showing much less qpf. However, sufficient shear and instability
will be in place late Thursday for a threat for severe storms
along/east of the central mountain chain. With convective
initiation expected over the Sangre De Cristos, flash flooding of
the Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon will once again be a threat. The
ridge will shift east late Thursday night, with southwest flow
aloft increasing over the area in advance of a Pacific trough.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023

The large scale weather pattern, with an upper level trough over
the Great Basin and a ridge of high pressure over western Texas,
will continue through Saturday. Thus, daily rounds of strong to
severe weather will continue along and east of the central
mountain chain, with dry weather further west, except for a mix of
wet and dry thunderstorms over the upper Rio Grande Valley and
northwest mountains and highlands each afternoon and early
evening. Storms along the central mountain chain look to be
capable of heavy enough rain to produce hazardous runoff on recent
burn scars; however, the heaviest rain will fall over the far
eastern plains where some locations may receive 0.50-1.00" of rain
with locally higher amounts Friday through Saturday.

Sunday and Monday, a weak upper level low pressure system is
forecast to develop over central and southern CA. An upper level
disturbance is also forecast to eject northeastward from the base
of this upper low across eastern NM. As a result, present model
runs show drier air overspreading eastern NM Sunday and Monday
with the focus for dryline thunderstorms mainly over western TX.
The timing and track of the disturbance crossing eastern NM will
play an important role in determining where the dryline sets up,
and we can't rule out that the dryline wont continue to be active
over at least our southeast plains on Sunday and potentially both
days.

Low level return flow is forecast to make significant progress
back into the forecast area Monday night and Tuesday, while the
upper low on the west coast begins to shift inland. This should
result in greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms,
potentially even over central and western areas where the
convection may produce more in the way of wind than rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023

Severe storms will continue through approximately 02Z across east
central NM with damaging wind gusts and large hail likely. A
tornado is also possible. Areas from KCAO southward toward KCVS
will be impacted. Though the severe threat will diminish after
02Z, some SHRA and TSRA will continue well into the evening across
eastern NM. Outflow from the storms will push westward and bring
an east canyon wind into the ABQ metro area. Gusts near 30kt are
possible at KABQ. Low clouds will develop behind the boundary
across eastern NM with MVFR to IFR conditions likely. These low
clouds will erode between 13Z and 17Z, then another round of
showers and thunderstorms are expected across eastern NM Thursday
afternoon. Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging
wind gusts once again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 PM MDT Wed May 24 2023

Increasing southwest flow aloft across western NM with the slow
approach of a Pacific trough through Friday will bring uptrending
winds and hot, dry and unstable conditions. Meanwhile, Gulf moisture
will remain from the central mountain chain eastward, where rounds
of wetting storms are likely with the potential for burn scar
flooding. Winds will exceed critical thresholds across portions
of western NM on Friday, bringing spotty critical fire weather
conditions. Winds are forecast to trend down by Saturday, but
elevated fire weather conditions are likely across western areas.
Winds will limit critical fire weather conditions on Sunday, but
much of the area will be hot, dry and unstable. Warming with a
ridge is forecast for Monday, followed by a weak Pacific low and
increasing chances for wetting storms going into the middle of
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  84  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  41  78  43  76 /   5   5  10  20
Cuba............................  45  76  47  77 /   5   5   5  10
Gallup..........................  42  81  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  44  79  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  44  82  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  45  80  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  50  80  51  81 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  47  79  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  39  82  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  50  86  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  40  71  41  69 /  10  20  10  30
Los Alamos......................  50  76  53  74 /  10  10  10  30
Pecos...........................  48  75  50  74 /  20  30  30  50
Cerro/Questa....................  42  71  46  71 /  20  20  20  40
Red River.......................  38  65  40  64 /  20  40  20  50
Angel Fire......................  36  68  38  67 /  30  50  30  50
Taos............................  41  76  44  75 /  10  20  10  30
Mora............................  44  72  45  70 /  30  40  40  60
Espanola........................  49  83  52  82 /  10  10  10  30
Santa Fe........................  50  77  53  77 /  10  20  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  49  81  52  80 /  10  10  10  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  83  59  82 /   0   5   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  84  57  84 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  87  56  87 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  85  57  85 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  52  88  54  88 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  54  86  56  86 /   5   5   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  51  87  53  88 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  55  85  56  85 /   0   5   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  51  87  54  88 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  56  83  56  83 /   5   5  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  56  84  56  84 /   0   5   5  10
Socorro.........................  55  89  56  90 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  77  51  77 /   5  10  10  20
Tijeras.........................  52  80  52  80 /   5   5  10  20
Edgewood........................  47  79  49  79 /  10  10  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  44  80  47  80 /   5  10  10  30
Clines Corners..................  47  76  49  75 /  10  20  20  40
Mountainair.....................  47  80  50  81 /   0  10  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  48  81  50  81 /   0  10  10  30
Carrizozo.......................  57  85  56  84 /   0  10  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  47  76  49  77 /   5  20  20  30
Capulin.........................  46  71  50  72 /  40  30  30  50
Raton...........................  45  76  49  76 /  30  30  30  40
Springer........................  49  76  51  77 /  40  30  30  40
Las Vegas.......................  47  74  49  73 /  20  30  30  60
Clayton.........................  52  74  55  74 /  60  30  40  50
Roy.............................  51  74  53  73 /  60  30  40  60
Conchas.........................  55  81  57  80 /  50  20  40  60
Santa Rosa......................  55  80  57  78 /  30  20  30  60
Tucumcari.......................  53  80  57  79 /  70  20  40  60
Clovis..........................  54  77  58  77 /  60  20  30  60
Portales........................  55  79  58  78 /  60  20  30  60
Fort Sumner.....................  54  81  58  81 /  30  20  30  60
Roswell.........................  62  86  63  87 /  20  20  20  40
Picacho.........................  53  80  55  81 /  10  20  20  40
Elk.............................  48  79  52  81 /   5  20  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...34

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