Flash Flood Warning 119, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1222 PM MDT Wed Sep 13 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Widespread showers and storms are expected again today across the
region with a few stronger storms in central and southern NM. Burn
scar flash flooding remains a threat today with heavier showers and
storms. Shower and storm chances trend down late in the week as
drier air enters from the west. With clearer skies, temperatures
will gradually warm up to seasonal averages by the beginning of
next week. Breezy west winds begin to pick-up early next week out
ahead of a storm system that may impact the area around the middle
of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 329 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2023

One of the more pronounced waves in the recent series of
disturbances passing eastward over the forecast area will cross
today followed by brief and weak shortwave ridging tonight.
Temperatures and lapse rates will also rise from yesterday with the
potential for a little more sun across northern and eastern areas,
enabling thunderstorms to become better developed. In fact, forecast
CAPE and bulk shear suggest a few strong to severe storms will be
possible over eastern areas this afternoon until sunset. The base of
the upper trough looks to cross the central valley around mid day
today with drier air and significantly lower PWATs funneling in
behind it. At this time the greatest risk of burn scar flash
flooding appears to be over the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon Scar, where
0.50-1.00" of rain fell yesterday saturating the ground, PWATs are
forecast to remain elevated into the afternoon when instability will
be greatest, and CAMs are depicting some moderate precipitation
bullseyes this afternoon until sunset. CAMs are in good agreement on
mainly westerly upslope flow precipitation over the south central
mountains, so with this forecast package we will only issue a Flash
Flood Watch for the southern peaks and east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains, especially the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon Burn Scar.

In the wake of the shortwave trough tonight, precipitation will
taper off from the west, except over far eastern areas where it may
keep going until about sunrise as another backdoor front sags into
the state. The far eastern plains also have a good chance for at
least patchy fog behind this backdoor front late tonight into
Thursday morning.  Thursday, a more pronounced upper level trough
will approach NM from the northwest working with recycled moisture
and moisture from the backdoor front on the eastern plains to
produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across almost all of our
forecast zones. High temperatures will trend warmer in most places
today and again Thursday, when readings look to peak from near
normal to as much as 8 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2023

The aformentioned trough enters northern NM late on Thursday and the
lift out ahead of it could allow convection to persist well into the
overnight hours in eastern NM. A boundary from the east will provide
some more low-level moisture, but this weak front will struggle to
make it through the gaps of central mountain chain. A few severe
storms are possible in the northeast on Friday afternoon as they
come off the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A
convective aided backdoor front on Friday night will have a bit
more vigor than the one of Thursday, but still not expecting more
than a breeze in the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metro areas.

Temperatures will moderate to near seasonal averages over the
weekend as ridging slides in from the west. Isolated to scattered
storms are possible in the east, but the severe and flash flood
potential will be low. As the ridge moves overhead, some moisture
will sneak up into western NM from the Gulf of California where
the water temps are running a few degrees above average. The jet
stream looks to get more active over the Intermountain West around
the middle of next week, although models disagree on where it
will be located. It looks likely that winds will begin to increase
with intensifying westerly flow overhead, but it remains to be
seen if there will be an uptick in precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Areas of MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds, fog, showers and
thunderstorms will continue at time through the afternoon and
early evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible across
the eastern plains this afternoon until around sunset with large
hail the main threat. Showers and will end from west to east
overnight, except for the far eastern plains where isolated
showers and thunderstorms continue. Areas of fog and low clouds
return to far eastern areas again tonight with MVFR and IFR
conditions. Localized fog is also possible in lower elevations
west of the central mountain chain in and near the Rio Grande
Valley late tonight into Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 AM MDT Wed Sep 13 2023

A series of disturbances will continue crossing the forecast area
from the west and northwest today through Friday night with daily
rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Three day
precipitation totals look to vary around 0.10-0.50" over central and
western areas, and around 0.50-1.25" over the northern mountains and
east.  There will be a risk of burn scar flash flooding, especially
over the HPCC Scar today and to a lesser extent Thursday.  A ridge
of high pressure will build over the state Saturday through Sunday
enabling humidities to fall, and high temperatures to rise closer to
normal, with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring
eastern areas Saturday and southern areas on Sunday.  A winter-like
storm system dropping into the western US early in the coming work
week looks to cause southwest winds to strengthen, and will probably
trigger daily rounds of fairly isolated showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  78  53  76 /  20  30  20  20
Dulce...........................  38  76  42  70 /  40  60  30  50
Cuba............................  46  73  47  70 /  20  50  20  40
Gallup..........................  45  76  46  75 /  20  40  10  20
El Morro........................  43  73  44  73 /  30  60  20  30
Grants..........................  45  76  45  75 /  20  60  10  30
Quemado.........................  46  73  46  74 /  30  50  20  20
Magdalena.......................  50  76  51  75 /  30  50  20  30
Datil...........................  47  72  48  73 /  20  50  20  30
Reserve.........................  46  78  45  79 /  20  30   5   5
Glenwood........................  55  83  56  84 /  20  30   0   5
Chama...........................  39  70  40  63 /  50  80  30  70
Los Alamos......................  50  70  51  69 /  20  70  20  70
Pecos...........................  48  74  49  70 /  20  60  30  60
Cerro/Questa....................  32  70  35  63 /  50  80  50  80
Red River.......................  35  65  36  58 /  60  80  50  80
Angel Fire......................  32  65  34  60 /  40  80  40  80
Taos............................  42  73  44  67 /  50  60  30  60
Mora............................  41  70  42  65 /  30  70  40  80
Espanola........................  50  78  51  75 /  20  50  30  50
Santa Fe........................  51  73  52  70 /  20  50  30  60
Santa Fe Airport................  50  76  50  74 /  20  40  20  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  81  56  79 /  20  30  20  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  81  56  79 /  20  30  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  82  56  81 /  30  30  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  81  57  80 /  20  30  20  30
Belen...........................  55  83  54  82 /  20  30  20  20
Bernalillo......................  56  83  55  81 /  20  30  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  54  82  53  81 /  20  30  20  30
Corrales........................  57  82  56  80 /  20  30  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  55  83  54  81 /  20  30  20  20
Placitas........................  56  78  55  77 /  20  40  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  58  81  56  79 /  20  40  20  30
Socorro.........................  57  84  57  82 /  20  30  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  72  51  71 /  20  40  30  30
Tijeras.........................  52  75  52  75 /  30  40  20  30
Edgewood........................  48  76  48  74 /  20  40  20  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  44  78  44  76 /  20  40  20  40
Clines Corners..................  48  74  47  70 /  20  40  20  40
Mountainair.....................  49  76  49  75 /  30  40  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  50  76  50  76 /  50  40  20  30
Carrizozo.......................  56  79  57  79 /  30  30  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  50  73  50  73 /  20  50  10  40
Capulin.........................  45  69  47  61 /  40  80  60  70
Raton...........................  46  73  47  65 /  30  80  50  70
Springer........................  48  75  49  69 /  40  60  40  60
Las Vegas.......................  47  73  47  69 /  40  60  40  70
Clayton.........................  54  73  54  69 /  70  50  50  50
Roy.............................  50  74  52  69 /  60  70  60  70
Conchas.........................  57  80  56  76 /  60  50  50  50
Santa Rosa......................  55  78  55  75 /  40  50  40  50
Tucumcari.......................  57  78  55  76 /  70  40  40  40
Clovis..........................  56  81  57  77 /  70  30  50  50
Portales........................  57  82  59  79 /  70  30  50  40
Fort Sumner.....................  57  82  58  79 /  50  40  30  40
Roswell.........................  61  89  63  85 /  30  20  20  30
Picacho.........................  54  82  55  78 /  20  30  10  40
Elk.............................  51  81  52  78 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...33