Flash Flood Warning 113, NWS Albuquerque, NM

091 
WGUS75 KABQ 282210
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
410 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023

NMC047-282330-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0113.000000T0000Z-230828T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
410 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HERMITS PEAK AND CALF CANYON BURN 
SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

At 410 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain over the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar. Between 1 and 
1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 
to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing 
or expected to begin shortly.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will impact the Tecolote Creek 
and Gallinas River drainage areas. The debris flow can consist of 
rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Hermits Peak and Calf
         Canyon Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  El Porvenir, Montezuma, Tierra Monte, Sapello, Gallinas, Rociada, 
  Mineral Hill, Manuelitas and San Geronimo.

This includes the following highways...
	State Road 94 between Mile Markers 1 and 9.
	State Road 518 between Mile Markers 10 and 16.
	State Road 283 between Mile Markers 7 and 12...and
	near Mile Marker 14.
	State Road 276 between Mile Markers 0 and 5.
	State Road 266 between Mile Markers 0 and 6.
	State Road 65 between Mile Markers 1 and 14.
	State Road 105 between Mile Markers 0 and 6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Runoff from rainfall will cause elevated water levels within 
vulnerable drainages in and downstream of the Hermits Peak Calf 
Canyon fire burn area.

Do not camp along streams and rivers. Remain alert when hiking in 
steep, narrow canyons. Know where you are relative to low spots and 
drainages.

This is a life threatening situation. Heavy rainfall will cause 
extensive and severe flash flooding of creeks, streams and ditches 
in the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar. Severe debris flows 
can also be anticipated across roads. Roads and driveways may be 
washed away in places. If you encounter flood waters, climb to 
safety.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 10525 3561 10524 3556 10539 3553 10545
      3554 10551 3570 10553 3572 10556 3578 10557
      3587 10558 3587 10535 3583 10522 3583 10520
      3579 10518 3575 10520 3573 10525 3568 10524

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

12

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1116 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Today will see one more active day of storms developing
along the central mountain chain, threatening flash flooding over
the HPCC and McBride burn scars. Storms will track S/SE over the
eastern plains of NM bringing an east canyon wind into Santa Fe
and Albuquerque this evening. Afternoon storm coverage trends down
Tuesday and beyond as temperatures trend hotter. This stays true
for central and eastern areas Friday and this weekend while a
plume of monsoon moisture brings increased storm coverage and
cooler temperatures to areas along the AZ border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023

A 594dm H5 ridge centered west of NM is steering storms across
eastern NM toward the south early this morning. This activity has
helped force a moist surface boundary west toward the central mt
chain and RGV overnight. The 00Z RAOB at KABQ showed a subsidence
inversion once again near 500mb with very dry air extending to the
top of the troposphere. This put a tight lid on convection Sunday
and models significantly over forecast coverage for central NM.
The guidance also handled timing and placement of storms over
eastern NM rather poorly. Forecast confidence today has decreased
as a result. A shortwave on the nose of a 50 kt jet approaching
western CO today is expected to fire up storms over the northern
mts. This activity may organize into a larger convective cluster
over eastern NM while moving southeast into moist, low level
inflow. Latest CAMs struggle to agree on the timing and location
of the heavier rainfall over the eastern plains tonight. Either
way, much needed precip is possible for a large swath of eastern
NM. The cold pool in the wake of this activity is also likely to
force a boundary west to the central mt chain with moderate gap
winds in the RGV overnight. If storms are more organized farther
west to the central mt chain then gap winds may become strong for
a few hours at KABQ. A couple CAMs also show additional shower and
storms along this boundary within central mt overnight. There is
even potential for areas of rain, low clouds, and even some fog to
impact the east slopes of the central mt chain for a few hours
late tonight. Forecast confidence Tuesday is even lower. The more
recent PoPs have trended higher given a moist low level airmass
will remain in place with easterly flow across the eastern plains.
However, the drier more stable airmass with the upper ridge will
be drifting east and widespread clouds lingering over eastern NM
Tuesday may lead to a very slow start to any storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Tuesday night begins the long term period with the
monsoon high still centered west of NM. Evening convection looks to
quickly taper off with remnant low-level moisture lingering.
Wednesday sees the 594dm H5 high begin to slide east into western
NM. The proximity of the upper high and drier mid to upper level air
with act to suppress convection, keeping storm coverage isolated to
scattered over the high terrain. Storm motions will be slow and
erratic with lifespans of individual storm cells being relatively
short. Meanwhile, high temperatures will mostly be in the 90s for
most valley locations with 70s and 80s in the mountains.

The upper high will be centered mostly over NM by Thursday with
PWATs continuing to trend lower to the 0.70" to 0.80" range, below
normal. Afternoon convection will be hard to come by given the
proximity of the upper high, but isolated to scattered storms will
be possible over the higher terrain close to the AZ border. This
will be due to a plume of monsoon moisture reaching into AZ,
skirting the western edge of the forecast area. Daytime highs across
western NM will trend a few degrees cooler from Wednesday, and
several degrees warmer for central and eastern lower elevations as a
result. The upper high slides further east over the southern Great
Plains by Friday into next weekend while the plume of monsoon
moisture continues to be pulled into AZ and far western NM. This
will keep dry and hot conditions for areas along and east of the Rio
Grande Valley, and slightly cooler and wetter (relatively speaking)
closer to the AZ border.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Lingering MVFR cigs over portions of ern NM at 17Z to continue
improving while convection begins to develop over the northern,
central and southwestern high terrain. Showers and tstms to become
more widespread aft 21Z with the stronger tstms producing gusty
variable winds to around 40kt and brief MVFR cigs obscuring
terrain. Forecast models indicate a cluster of storms moving off
the Sangre de Cristo mts by 23Z producing outflow winds and
eventually a gusty east wind into KSAF and KABQ. Tstms to wane aft
29/03Z but showers persisting over central and ern NM with lcl
MVFR cigs returning along the central mt chain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023

No critical fire weather concerns are forecast for the next 7 days.
Deep moisture currently in place over the eastern half of NM will
allow storms with locally heavy rainfall to impact areas along and
east of the central mt chain today and tonight. A few more storms
are expected Tuesday before a drying and warming trend takes hold of
central and eastern NM thru the end of the week. The focus may shift
into far western NM Wednesday thru Friday but overall coverage is
still expected to be limited. Temps will trend above normal thru the
end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  61  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  86  51  85  51 /  20  10  10   5
Cuba............................  85  55  82  56 /  20  20  10   5
Gallup..........................  89  53  89  58 /   5   0   5   5
El Morro........................  84  53  82  54 /   5   5  10   5
Grants..........................  89  53  86  55 /  10   5  10   5
Quemado.........................  85  55  85  57 /  20  10  20  10
Magdalena.......................  84  60  81  58 /  30  30  20  20
Datil...........................  82  55  80  55 /  20  20  20  20
Reserve.........................  87  57  89  58 /  30  10  20  20
Glenwood........................  91  63  90  64 /  40  20  30  20
Chama...........................  78  48  77  48 /  50  30  20  10
Los Alamos......................  81  59  78  57 /  60  40  40  10
Pecos...........................  78  56  75  53 /  70  60  50  20
Cerro/Questa....................  77  48  76  45 /  70  40  30  10
Red River.......................  70  43  70  43 /  70  50  40  10
Angel Fire......................  72  39  70  42 /  70  50  50  10
Taos............................  82  49  80  50 /  60  40  20  10
Mora............................  73  51  71  48 /  70  60  50  20
Espanola........................  87  59  86  58 /  40  40  20  10
Santa Fe........................  81  58  79  56 /  50  50  30  10
Santa Fe Airport................  85  57  82  56 /  40  40  20   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  88  64  85  62 /  30  30  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  90  66  87  64 /  20  30  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  92  65  89  64 /  20  30  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  90  65  87  64 /  20  30  10   5
Belen...........................  92  65  89  63 /  20  20  10   5
Bernalillo......................  91  64  88  62 /  30  30  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  91  62  88  63 /  20  30  10  10
Corrales........................  91  65  88  63 /  30  30  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  91  62  88  64 /  20  30  10   5
Placitas........................  88  63  85  60 /  30  40  20   5
Rio Rancho......................  89  65  86  63 /  30  30  10   5
Socorro.........................  92  65  88  64 /  20  20  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  81  58  78  57 /  50  40  30  10
Tijeras.........................  86  60  83  58 /  50  40  20  10
Edgewood........................  84  56  80  55 /  60  50  30  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  84  51  81  54 /  70  50  30  10
Clines Corners..................  79  53  76  54 /  80  50  40  20
Mountainair.....................  83  57  81  55 /  50  40  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  83  58  80  56 /  60  40  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  85  63  82  61 /  60  50  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  76  55  74  55 /  70  60  40  30
Capulin.........................  75  54  74  52 /  70  60  20   5
Raton...........................  78  52  78  51 /  70  60  30  10
Springer........................  81  55  79  52 /  70  50  30  10
Las Vegas.......................  77  52  76  52 /  70  60  50  20
Clayton.........................  80  59  80  57 /  70  50  10   5
Roy.............................  79  57  78  56 /  80  60  30  10
Conchas.........................  86  63  85  61 /  80  70  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  85  62  83  60 /  70  70  30  10
Tucumcari.......................  85  60  84  61 /  50  60  20   5
Clovis..........................  84  62  85  61 /  40  50  20  10
Portales........................  85  63  86  62 /  40  40  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  87  64  85  62 /  40  70  20  10
Roswell.........................  92  69  89  66 /  30  60  30  10
Picacho.........................  84  62  81  60 /  50  60  30  20
Elk.............................  79  58  77  57 /  70  50  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ211-214-215-226.

&&

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...99

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
105 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023

NMZ215-228-281930-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
105 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTY
THROUGH 130 PM MDT...

At 105 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ute Park, or 29 miles east of Questa, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cimarron, Ute Park and Philmont Scout Ranch.

This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 294 and 314.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 10479 3637 10508 3656 10517 3657 10516
      3659 10516 3661 10518 3662 10517 3666 10517
      3673 10502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 329DEG 14KT 3663 10507

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
130 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023

NMZ213-215-282000-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Northern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-
130 PM MDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTY
THROUGH 200 PM MDT...

At 130 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cimarron Canyon State Park, or 25 miles northeast of Taos, moving
south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Angel Fire, Eagle Nest, Cimarron Canyon State Park, Vietnam Veterans
Memorial State Park, Eagle Nest Lake State Park and Ute Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 64 between Mile Markers 274 and 301.
 State Road 434 between Mile Markers 34 and 36.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 10503 3631 10507 3640 10532 3642 10532
      3641 10534 3641 10535 3664 10524
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 016DEG 16KT 3655 10516

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH