Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
207 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will be concentrated over the northern
half of New Mexico through the late evening as activity struggles
to move from higher elevation areas to nearby valleys and plains.
Thunderstorms will favor the western and central high terrain of
New Mexico on Thursday with temperatures gaining a degree or two
in most areas. Less shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast
Friday through the weekend as monsoon moisture pushes westward
into Arizona and beyond. Temperatures will hover near to slightly
above average during this timeframe with many locations reaching
the upper 80's and 90's each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023

The monsoon high has centered itself just south of the Four
Corners area and is becoming more symmetrical or circular in form, as
opposed to it's elongated orientation earlier this week. With
remnant monsoon moisture trapped beneath, evidenced by a 1.03" PWAT
on this morning's sounding, afternoon convection has begun over the
northern mountains today. Steering flow is thus far taking storms in
a clockwise fashion around the center of the higher. Cells over the
Jemez and Sangre de Cristo Mts are drifting southward with more
stationary movement over the Chuska Mts. The Flood Watch for the
HPCC burn scar remains on track with current storm activity over
southern sections of the burn scar. This will continue into the
evening. Storms over the Jemez Mts may also bring the less sensitive
Cerro Pelado burn scar into play. Convection drifting southward over
areas between Santa Fe and the East Mountain Communities this
evening has potential to produce an east canyon wind that pushes
into ABQ. There's a low chance this east canyon wind collides with
outflow boundaries pushing south or east from the Jemez or Mt.
Taylor to produce a rogue isolated storm cell over the ABQ metro
this evening.

Thursday sees the monsoon high begin to drift east over the southern
Great Plains. Mid-level dry air, currently seen getting shunted
southward over TX on water vapor imagery, looks to be wrapped west
over the Big Bend area then back north over TX around the center of
the high. This will begin a trend down in storm chances over the
eastern half of the state. Guidance is also trending down for
overall storm coverage across western and northern NM, indicating
lower level moisture getting scoured out and lowering convective
potential. Came down a notch with PoPs as a result. Temperatures
also begin warming up, reaching near heat advisory levels at Roswell
again. Although the forecast high is 105F at Roswell, will let the
overnight shift look one last time before a decision is made for any
heat advisory issuance for the Chaves County Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023

High pressure will be centering over the Red River valley of OK-TX
on Friday while an eastern Pacific low inches closer to the SoCal
coast. Despite this typically favorable placement of upper level
features, the aforementioned swath of drier air will be rounding
the high and invading NM. This will begin to reduce storm coverage
and rainfall efficiency as PWATs fall closer to 0.75 inch over
much of the forecast area and the plume of deeper subtropical
moisture gets shunted westward into AZ. While drier air might
suggest lower specific heat capacity, the reduced pressure heights
will likely offset this and high temperatures Friday will not
stray far from Thursday's readings.

Into the weekend, the dome of high pressure migrates northward
over the Missouri River basin while the eastern Pacific low
continues to wobble and loop offshore of CA. A more prominent
feature will also come into the picture then in the form of a
tropical cyclone (Hillary) which is modeled to trek northward
over, or just west, of the Baja peninsula through Sunday. While
the Colorado River basin and surrounding areas are getting
pummeled with heavy rain in a very anomalously high moisture
environment, NM will be left out with a pronounced dry slot
sliding northward into the state Saturday before only moderating
slightly into Sunday. This will really limit, if not fully shut
down, convection this weekend while temperatures generally follow
persistence. Southerly breezes will also turn anomalously strong
(still in the breezy category in the afternoons).

Into Monday and Tuesday, the upper high will remain strong,
anchored over the midwestern states with east southeasterly flow
aloft beginning to slowly usher in more moisture toward NM via TX
and the upper Gulf. By that time the remnants of Hillary will
likely have merged inland with the former eastern Pacific low.
Storm chances would begin to increase toward Monday and more-so on
Tuesday, but coverage is still modeled to be below climatological
expectations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Afternoon convection is just getting started over the high terrain
this hour. This is where ts will develop before drifting over
surrounding lower elevs today. Storms over the Sangre de Cristo
Mts will tend to drift S/SE and tempo groups are in at KSAF and
KLVS given their proximity to the mts. Outflow from these storms
will likely bring at least an east canyon wind to KABQ this
evening. Storms over western NM will be slower and more erratic in
their movement. Drier and clearer conditions will lay over the
eastern plains toward the TX border, although a few storms will
try to drift as far as the Pecos River Valley around Guadalupe and
DeBaca counties.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023

The monsoon high will be centered over northern NM today, beginning
to drift east toward TX Thursday and building over the Great Plains
area this weekend into next week. Afternoon storm chances wane a bit
with a batch of mid-level dry air currently over TX being entrained
over NM. Scattered to numerous storm coverage forecast Thursday over
western NM trends lower to scattered coverage Friday, then to
isolated coverage this weekend. High temperatures trend warmer as
well with 100s returning to the eastern plains Thursday and Friday,
then trending back below 100F by the weekend. The drier air combined
with increased southeasterly flow into eastern NM will allow for
isolated and shortlived elevated to locally critical fire weather
for the northeast highlands this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  93  64  92 /  30  30  30  30
Dulce...........................  50  91  51  87 /  40  60  40  30
Cuba............................  57  86  56  87 /  50  60  40  30
Gallup..........................  57  89  56  88 /  30  60  40  50
El Morro........................  56  84  53  83 /  30  70  50  40
Grants..........................  56  87  54  88 /  40  60  40  40
Quemado.........................  59  86  56  85 /  30  70  40  50
Magdalena.......................  63  88  61  87 /  20  60  20  20
Datil...........................  59  83  57  84 /  30  60  30  40
Reserve.........................  58  90  57  88 /  30  50  20  40
Glenwood........................  62  96  63  94 /  20  40  20  40
Chama...........................  47  84  48  81 /  30  70  40  40
Los Alamos......................  60  87  60  85 /  40  60  30  30
Pecos...........................  58  88  58  88 /  30  50  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  45  85  47  85 /  40  50  20  30
Red River.......................  44  78  45  78 /  40  60  20  40
Angel Fire......................  40  80  43  80 /  30  50  20  30
Taos............................  51  89  53  87 /  30  40  20  20
Mora............................  53  84  52  84 /  40  40  20  30
Espanola........................  59  93  60  93 /  30  40  20  20
Santa Fe........................  59  88  60  88 /  30  50  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  59  92  59  91 /  30  30  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  93  65  93 /  40  50  30  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  94  67  95 /  30  40  30  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  96  65  97 /  30  40  30  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  94  66  95 /  40  40  30  10
Belen...........................  64  97  63  97 /  20  30  30  10
Bernalillo......................  66  96  64  96 /  40  40  30  10
Bosque Farms....................  63  96  63  96 /  20  30  30  10
Corrales........................  67  96  65  96 /  40  40  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  63  96  63  96 /  20  30  30  10
Placitas........................  66  93  63  93 /  40  50  30  10
Rio Rancho......................  66  95  65  94 /  40  40  30  10
Socorro.........................  69  98  67  97 /  10  20  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  87  59  87 /  40  60  30  20
Tijeras.........................  63  90  61  89 /  40  60  30  20
Edgewood........................  58  91  57  89 /  30  50  30  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  92  54  91 /  20  40  30  10
Clines Corners..................  59  89  57  88 /  30  30  20  10
Mountainair.....................  60  90  58  90 /  20  50  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  63  91  60  90 /  20  40  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  68  93  66  92 /  10  30  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  62  85  60  85 /  10  50  20  20
Capulin.........................  58  86  58  88 /  20  10   5  10
Raton...........................  56  90  56  91 /  20  10  10  10
Springer........................  56  93  57  95 /  20  20  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  56  89  56  90 /  30  20  20  20
Clayton.........................  66  93  63  96 /   5   0   5   0
Roy.............................  59  93  60  93 /  20  10  10   5
Conchas.........................  66 100  66  99 /  20   5  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  65  97  64  96 /  20  20  20   5
Tucumcari.......................  68 101  67 100 /  10   5  10   0
Clovis..........................  68 101  67  99 /  10  10  10   0
Portales........................  69 102  68 100 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  69 101  68  99 /  20  10  20   0
Roswell.........................  72 105  71 103 /   0   5  10   0
Picacho.........................  68  97  67  95 /  10  20  10  10
Elk.............................  64  92  63  91 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1032 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Flash Flood      2 NNE Rociada           35.86N 105.41W
08/13/2023                   San Miguel         NM   Emergency Mngr

            Debris flow from heavy rainfall required the
            state EOC to deliver sandbags to protect
            homes in and around Rociada.

&&

ANM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1033 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Flash Flood      Holman                  36.04N 105.38W
08/13/2023                   Mora               NM   Emergency Mngr

            Debris flow across 518 in Holman required
            removal of rocks and mud across road.

&&

ANM