Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1146 AM MDT Thu May 18 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 AM MDT Thu May 18 2023

Scattered to numerous showers and storms continue each afternoon
through the weekend. There is a slight risk of flash flooding in
the northeast this afternoon with burn scar flash flooding also
possible each afternoon through Sunday. There is a marginal risk
for severe storms today in the far northeast and tomorrow in the
southeast. A backdoor cold front may create breezy east canyon
winds through the gaps of the central mountains early tomorrow and
again early Saturday. Temperatures drop tomorrow, particularly in
the east where highs may be as much as 15 degrees below average.
Drier air enters from the west early next week, resulting in a
decrease in storm coverage across the west while afternoon showers
and storms continue in the north and east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM MDT Thu May 18 2023

Locally heavy rainfall is expected over northeast areas this
afternoon as a backdoor cold front pushes through the area
(including the Sangre de Cristo Mountains). Then, the focus for
unseasonably heavy convective precipitation will shift to western
areas on Friday as the cold front reaches the continental divide.
A monsoon-like atmosphere will remain in place today and Friday,
while the forecast area remains in a saddle between a somewhat
weak upper level low pressure system over the upper Baja Peninsula
and a much stronger and broader low pressure system crossing the
upper Great Plains. PWATs around 0.75- 1.00" over the southeast
two thirds of the forecast area today and Friday will be near
record values, and around 175-250% of normal for this time of
year. While scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
forecast areawide today, the heaviest precipitation looks to favor
the Sangres eastward where rain amounts from 0.25-1.00" are
expected. The potential exists for flash flooding in and below
recent burn scars, so we are issuing a Flash Flood Watch mainly
for the burn scars of the Sangre de Cristos for this afternoon.
Storms today are forecast to travel eastward around 10-25 mph,
with the threat of heavy rain shifting east of the Sangres by
sunset.

The backdoor cold front will push through gaps in the central
mountain chain late tonight into Friday morning with a moderately
gusty east wind below canyons in the central valley.  The atmosphere
is forecast to be more stable behind the cold front across north
central and northeast areas on Friday, so while easterly upslope
flow will likely cause showers and thunderstorms to continue, rain
rates should be slow enough to decrease the burn scar flood threat
there.  However, the atmosphere looks to remain quite unstable over
west central and southern areas on Friday, and PWATs will remain
near record values, so the threat of locally heavy rainfall will
increase there.

High temperatures are forecast to trend cooler areawide today,
then bottom out around 3 to 16 degrees below normal on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 AM MDT Thu May 18 2023

While convection will likely die down Friday night, easterly upslope
flow will allow for precipitation to continue throughout the night,
particularly along the Sangre de Cristo mountains and west central
mountains where moderate rainfall rates are possible. An easterly
breeze in the gaps of the central mountains may develop again late
Friday night but winds should stay below advisory criteria.
Convection on Saturday will be focused along the central mountain
chain where there may still be some modest frontal forcing. The
heaviest rainfall is likely in the Sacramento mountains where flash
flooding may be a concern. Temperatures on Saturday will remain
below average areawide with the greatest departure in the southeast
where highs could be as much as 15 degrees below average.

The closed low over Baja California will begin to lift into the Four
Corners region on Sunday, providing modest lift for convection that
will be focused in the western and northern mountains. It will also
act to scour some of the moisture out of western NM resulting in a
decrease in storm coverage each day after Sunday. Convection along
the dryline in eastern NM is expected each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday of next week. There are some indications that a weak
northwesterly wave could clip the northeast portion of the state
early next week and create more organized strong to severe storms so
that will be a feature to watch in the coming days. Temperatures
will gradually warm early next week with above average temperatures
possible by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Thu May 18 2023

The coverage of SHRA/TS is beginning to increase around the high
terrain and will spread eastward around 10 to 15 kt into nearby
highlands and valleys thru sunset. Direct hits will be capable of
producing brief MVFR vsbys in lcl heavy rainfall, gusty outflow
winds, small hail, and frequent lightning strikes. A few storms
over northeast NM may become severe with large hail and damaging
winds possible from KCAO to KTCC btwn 22Z and 02Z. A backdoor cold
front will begin advancing south thru northeast NM overnight with
MVFR low cigs developing in its wake. Lcl IFR is possible around
KCAO along w/ patchy fog near the CO border. This front will help
keep SHRA going all night within the central high terrain and the
RGV by sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 AM MDT Thu May 18 2023

Monsoon-like weather is forecast to continue through at least the
weekend with daily rounds of wetter variety showers and
thunderstorms. The recent uptick in thunderstorm coverage and
rainfall intensity now looks to continue today through the weekend
as a Baja low gradually meanders northeastward over the Four
Corners. A moist backdoor cold front is also forecast to dive
southwestward through the forecast area late today through Friday,
with the potential for a moderately strong gap wind in the
central valley late tonight into Friday morning, and again Friday
night. Behind the low, drier air is forecast to work its way over
western and central NM early next week with less thunderstorm
activity there, but the dryline may remain active on the eastern
plains of NM with thunderstorms producing wetting precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  80  50  78  54 /  10  10  30  50
Dulce...........................  73  42  68  44 /  40  10  80  70
Cuba............................  73  47  66  46 /  40  30  80  70
Gallup..........................  73  43  72  46 /  50  30  60  60
El Morro........................  68  45  65  46 /  60  50  80  70
Grants..........................  72  45  69  44 /  60  30  80  60
Quemado.........................  70  46  68  45 /  70  50  80  50
Magdalena.......................  70  50  66  51 /  80  50  80  80
Datil...........................  68  45  66  48 /  80  50  80  60
Reserve.........................  72  41  72  43 /  80  40  70  30
Glenwood........................  76  48  77  53 /  70  50  60  20
Chama...........................  66  40  62  40 /  60  20  80  80
Los Alamos......................  69  50  62  49 /  70  50  90  80
Pecos...........................  69  47  61  46 /  70  60  90  80
Cerro/Questa....................  65  42  59  46 /  70  60  90  70
Red River.......................  55  38  49  40 /  90  70 100  80
Angel Fire......................  62  37  55  38 /  80  60 100  90
Taos............................  71  43  63  43 /  70  50  90  70
Mora............................  65  45  57  43 /  80  60 100  90
Espanola........................  77  51  69  51 /  60  40  80  70
Santa Fe........................  71  50  63  50 /  70  60  90  80
Santa Fe Airport................  74  48  66  49 /  60  50  90  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  77  57  69  54 /  40  50  80  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  78  56  71  54 /  50  40  80  70
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  55  74  54 /  50  40  80  70
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  80  56  72  55 /  40  40  80  70
Belen...........................  81  55  75  53 /  50  40  70  70
Bernalillo......................  80  56  71  55 /  40  50  80  70
Bosque Farms....................  82  53  75  52 /  40  40  80  70
Corrales........................  80  55  72  55 /  40  40  80  70
Los Lunas.......................  82  53  74  53 /  40  40  80  70
Placitas........................  77  55  67  54 /  40  50  80  80
Rio Rancho......................  79  56  70  55 /  40  40  80  70
Socorro.........................  80  55  76  55 /  70  50  70  70
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  49  62  49 /  40  60  90  80
Tijeras.........................  74  51  65  50 /  40  50  90  80
Edgewood........................  72  50  63  47 /  60  50  90  80
Moriarty/Estancia...............  74  46  65  45 /  60  60  80  70
Clines Corners..................  70  47  60  45 /  50  70  80  80
Mountainair.....................  73  49  66  48 /  50  50  80  80
Gran Quivira....................  73  50  67  48 /  40  50  80  70
Carrizozo.......................  76  53  73  54 /  40  30  60  60
Ruidoso.........................  69  47  66  48 /  40  30  60  60
Capulin.........................  66  47  57  43 / 100  60  80  40
Raton...........................  71  47  63  45 /  90  60  80  50
Springer........................  73  50  64  47 /  80  50  80  60
Las Vegas.......................  69  47  60  45 /  80  60  90  80
Clayton.........................  74  53  64  46 /  80  80  60  20
Roy.............................  73  51  63  48 /  90  50  80  60
Conchas.........................  81  55  70  53 /  70  60  70  60
Santa Rosa......................  79  54  67  51 /  70  60  70  70
Tucumcari.......................  82  55  70  51 /  60  60  50  40
Clovis..........................  82  55  71  51 /  40  40  50  40
Portales........................  84  56  74  52 /  30  50  50  40
Fort Sumner.....................  83  56  72  53 /  40  50  50  60
Roswell.........................  88  59  82  59 /  30  40  40  50
Picacho.........................  78  53  72  52 /  60  40  70  60
Elk.............................  75  50  72  50 /  40  30  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42