Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
255 PM PDT Sat Sep 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Deep moisture from the remnants of Kay will fuel
scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain through this evening.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected again Sunday, and then the
heavy rain threat will likely ramp up again Monday and Tuesday as
the remnant circulation of Kay moves inland. Southwest flow should
finally bring a drying trend late in the week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Active weather ongoing this
afternoon in two loosely organized arcs. One was just starting to
produce rain in the Morongo Basin, while the other stretched from
Inyo County through Esmeralda, Nye, southern Lincoln, Clark, and
Mohave counties. Several convective warnings have been issued within
this arc, and one sensor near Meadview, AZ recorded an impressive
1.14" of rain in 15 minutes. In between the arcs, shallow cumulus
were prevalent but having a hard time deepening. Temperatures were
running substantially cooler than 24 hours ago, resulting in much
less instability. High resolution models are still having a hard
time resolving many details and are jumping around quite a bit from
run to run. With this in mind, can't really rule out isolated heavy
rain in any of the Flood Watch area, so will let it ride. For
Sunday, precipitable water drops by about half an inch CWA-wide, so
even though thunderstorm chances will persist, the threat for heavy
rain and flooding will be less, so chose not to extend the Watch.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

On Monday, ridging over Utah will weaken and push eastward as the
trough associated with the remnants of former Hurricane Kay push
inland. NBM PoPs encompass our entire forecast area on Monday, as
the center of the low passes directly overhead. PoPs continue
through midweek, slowly shifting northeastward as upper-level flow
ushers the moisture away. Thereafter, a much welcomed, dry
southwesterly flow will set up over the region. Shortwave
propagations will likely increase afternoon breeziness in the
latter half of the week, but otherwise, dry conditions are
expected with PWAT values dropping below an inch areawide.
Temperatures will cool as well, with below-average temperatures
expected through the forecast period. There is a good deal of
uncertainty in the extended period, but the NBM seems to be
latching onto the 'Return of the High' solution, with temperatures
increasing back to above-average next weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Storms east of town have disrupted the
wind field this afternoon. If these storms impact the terminal,
which is possible through about 02Z, erratic winds and lower
ceilings will be concerns. After sunset, it may take winds several
hours to come around to the usual south southwest drainage direction
because of the storms' influences. Thunderstorms are expected to pop
over the mountains Sunday, with very small chances of affecting the
terminal. Monday and Tuesday could see greater chances of
thunderstorms affecting the terminal, with both daytime and
nighttime storms possible.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Scattered thunderstorms will continue through this
evening, most numerous over Inyo County California, southern Nevada,
and Mohave County Arizona. These storms will produce erratic gusty
winds, heavy rain, and low ceilings with terrain obscuration. Storms
should be less numerous Sunday and mostly over the mountains, with
the same threats of erratic gusty winds, heavy rain, and low
ceilings. More numerous storms are expected Monday and Tuesday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Varian
AVIATION...Morgan

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
338 PM PDT SAT SEP 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OLANCHA                 36.28N 118.01W
09/10/2022                   INYO               CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS PARTIAL
            LANE FLOODING BY THE LONE PINE FILM MUSEUM.

0257 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 E PANAMINT SPRINGS    36.35N 117.33W
09/10/2022                   INYO               CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS DEBRIS ON
            STATE ROUTE 190 BY MILE MARKER 63.

&&

MS