Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
125 AM PDT Sun Aug 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the area through next
week, allowing for above average temperatures across the region.
With the ridge in place overhead, thunderstorm activity will be
limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday.

An upper-level trough off the Californian coast will continue
interact with the high pressure ridge overhead, resulting in the
further deamplification of said ridge. A disturbance on the
periphery of this trough will move through the northwestern portion
of the forecast area later today. This will temporarily alter the
upper-level flow from the westerly zonal flow we've seen the past
few days, to a more south/southwesterly direction. This will allow
for 0.75" to 1.25" PWat values to creep back into the southern and
eastern portions of the forecast area today and tomorrow. This
slight increase in moisture will cause today and tomorrow's
temperatures to be a couple degrees cooler than Saturday's high
temperatures. There is a slight chance for isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Should it develop,
afternoon convection will be mainly limited to the southeastern
portions of the forecast area today.

On Monday, the ridge will begin to rebound, pushing the moisture
back out of the forecast area. Chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms on Monday will be more limited than Sunday. This is
due to large-scale subsidence, associated with the ridge, acting
to suppress convection. Showers and thunderstorms that do manage
to form will likely favor higher terrain areas.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

The strong subtropical ridge developing over the Great Basin will
bring us some late Summer heat by the middle of the week. This
ridge looks to hold firm heading into the holiday weekend. High
temperatures are forecast to be 6-10 degrees above normal, while
overnight lows will be quite warm for this time of year. In fact,
some record highs and record high minimum temperatures could be
tied or broke across the area. Widespread moderate to high Heat
Risk depicted across the Mojave Desert, so excessive heat
headlines becoming more likely.

The first part of of the week looks dry but models are hinting at
a bit of monsoon moisture potentially creeping back in under the
ridge, at least into Mohave County late week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Prevailing light south winds generally
6-10 knots can be expected today then S-SW tonight with only a few
clouds with bases near 12 kft in the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Most of the region will remain dry with tranquil
weather today except for isolated thunderstorms over the mountains
of northwest Arizona. General south-southwest winds sustained 6-
12KT can be expected today and tonight.&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Pierce
AVIATION...Adair

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