Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
Issued by National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1224 PM PDT Thu Aug 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Storms today will tend to favor the higher terrain
with flash flooding once again possible. Monsoonal moisture will
hang around through the weekend and into next week with daily
chances for thunderstorm activity and locally heavy downpours.
Cloud cover and periodic rainfall will keep temperatures below
mid-August normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tomorrow.
Monsoonal convection is underway across the eastern two thirds of
the CWA this afternoon with the strongest updrafts over the high
terrain areas of Clark, Lincoln and northern Mohave. As of the
last couple hours cloud top temperatures have struggled to eclipse
-50C and this may be due to the influences of the vort max over
 southwest UT. However, this should only delay the inevitable, and
 focus most convection across Lincoln and Mohave counties outside
 of the aforementioned high terrain areas. So as of now, the FFA
 looks good.

12Z HREF indicates the majority of this convection should end with
the loss of instability tonight, but there are a few hi-res models
that maintain some weak convection overnight. With the
aforementioned vort max slowly creeping northward, can't say this
is out of the question, but without the instability present, it
will be hard to come by much impacts or lightning.

Moving into tomorrow, another round of high terrain convection is
expected in basically the same areas as today. We theoretically
will lose the focused vort max to the north and without a large
scale synoptic trough, coverage should be slightly less and more
confined to Lincoln and Mohave counties, as WPC has illustrated in
their Day 2 ERO. That being said, a continuation of our FFA may be
needed again for the same areas through tomorrow as these areas
are the hardest hit by multiple days of heavy rain and will again
see them tomorrow most likely.

.LONG TERM...This Weekend through Early Next Week.
The restless 2022 monsoon shows no signs of slowing down over the
weekend and into next week as a broad ridge remains anchored over
the southern Rockies and a moist south or southeasterly flow
continues. The general wind flow continues to look rather weak
with a lack of larger scale features moving though, so day to day
convective activity will largely depend on more mesoscale
features not resolvable by computer model guidance at this time
range. Nonetheless, continued chances of daily thunderstorm
capable of heavy rainfall can be expected, along with continued
below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Another day of monsoonal
thunderstorms is expected over the Clark County high terrain areas
which could result in outflow winds impacting the terminal this
afternoon into the early evening. If so, gusts up to 35 kts are
possible which means AWW issuances are not out of the question. If
this were to happen, the best time frame for this is between the
21Z and 01Z time frames which is highlighted as a TEMPO group in
the 18Z TAFs. Activity should subside by sunset and wind potential
to the terminal will subside with it leaving mostly light winds
overnight. Another round of similar conditions will be possible
again tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
through this afternoon generally across eastern San Bernardino,
Clark, Lincoln and Mohave Counties. Any storms could impact
KLAS/KHND/KVGT/KEED/KIFP TAF sites with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and lightning. Showers or storms are not expected at either KBIH
or KDAG today. Storm movement today will be towards the north and
cloud bases will generally be 10-12 kft MSL. Storms are expected
to dissipate this evening.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...TB3

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
228 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     FLASH FLOOD      9 NE DOLAN SPRINGS      35.70N 114.17W
08/11/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NORTH PIERCE FERRY ROAD IS CLOSED FROM MILE
            MARKER 15 TO MILE MARKER 40 DUE TO FLOODING.
            AT 1340 PDT THE ARCHIBALD WASH FLOOD CONTROL
            WEBCAM SHOWED WATER FLOWING ACROSS PIERCE
            FERRY ROAD AT ARCHIBALD WASH.

&&

MS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     FLASH FLOOD      13 NE DOLAN SPRINGS     35.73N 114.12W
08/11/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NORTH STOCKTON HILL ROAD IS CLOSED FROM MILE
            MARKER 36 TO THE NORTHERN TERMINUS OF NORTH
            STOCKTON HILL ROAD DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

MS