Lake Wind Advisory 13, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
845 AM PDT Thu Jun 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expecting the warmest day of the week today before a
potent low pressure system brings strong winds and another round of
cooler temperatures. Dry conditions to continue, as most of the
monsoonal moisture looks to remain to our east. Warmer temperatures
to return next week.
&&

.UPDATE...Satellite imagery this morning shows cloudless skies
acorss the region but deep and tightly wound up low is lurking off
the Pacific coast and will nudge closer over the next 24 hours, with
winds gradually ramping upward. Strongest winds today will be
focused across the southern Great Basin and Sierra, but will spread
across most of the Mojave Desert region Friday.  Will be taking a
close look today at the need for additional wind headlines and
possible upgrades to the current high wind watches.  In the very
near term, things look good with no update needed.

-Outler-

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today.

Temperatures rise once again today, with highs a couple degrees
higher than yesterday. Fortunately, this will be the hottest we get
for a couple days. Unfortunately, the coming cooldown will be
accompanied by strong winds. Southerly breezes begin to pick up
today as the next system approaches. Strongest gusts today are
expected in our northern areas, with a wind advisory out for
Esmeralda and central Nye Counties. Gusts up to 45 mph are forecast
for the advisory areas, with gusts generally 20-35 mph elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...Friday through the Weekend.

Confidence continues to increase for a windy next three days across
much of the region. The last two evenings, we have referenced the
12Z ECMWF EFI wind values and again today, these values continue to
be eyebrow raising. In fact, the 12Z EC meteogram for KTPH has 48 of
50 members gusting 50+ mph Friday afternoon. So yesterday's High
Wind Watch and Red Flag Warnings looks like a great call for
Esmeralda/Nye/Lincoln counties.

Of note, an increasing concern for winds over the eastern Sierra is
a recent addition to the forecast, as it appears that 60+ mph gusts
may be possible in the high terrain areas above 8000ft and higher
near ridgetops. That being said, conditions don't look exactly
favorable for downslope potential at this time, so the lower Owens
Valley should avoid those higher end winds (although it will be
plenty windy there anyway, just not due to downslope). May need to
consider expanding wind products into Inyo county.

Apart from wind, there was some low probability chances for isolated
thunderstorm development Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon as
well, given a strong influx of moisture into Arizona that increases
PWAT values to 200+% of normal. However, the more progressive motion
of the upper low does seem to be favoring a more easterly
orientation of that moisture flux axis, and thus decreasing the
chances for PoP for Mohave county both days.

Heading into next week, much less wind is expected due to high
pressure building over the southwest. CPC 6-10 and 8-14 outlooks
show potential for above average precip for much of Arizona
including Mohave county so we shall welcome those chances with arms
wide open.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions to continue across the area.
An incoming system begins to increase southerly winds this
afternoon, leading to critical fire weather conditions in Esmeralda
and central Nye Counties. Tomorrow, wind speeds ramp up and
afternoon humidities in the single digits will lead to widespread
critical conditions. Gusts up to 60 mph will be possible in
Esmeralda, Nye, and Lincoln Counties, particularly in the higher
terrain. Winds remain gusty on Saturday, with gusts of 40-50 mph
expected. Minimum humidities will be slightly higher on Saturday,
helping mitigate the threat in the higher terrain of Mohave County.
Weaker but still breezy conditions anticipated on Sunday, with winds
finally subsiding on Monday.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will be increasing late this
morning through the afternoon with southeast components 10-18 knots
likely developing after 18Z then become more southerly and gusting
20-25 after 21Z through early this evening. South-southwest winds
around 10 knots through Friday morning then gusts 30-35 knots will
develop Friday afternoon. Clear skies will persist through the
period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...South winds will increase late this morning and
continue through the afternoon and early evening with speeds 15-25
knots at most TAF sites across the region. KDAG will see similar
speeds from the west-southwest. Clear skies will persist through the
TAF period across the region. Widespread south-southwest winds will
develop Friday gusting 30-40 knots.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Woods
LONG TERM...TB3
AVIATION...Adair

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