Flood Watch 4, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
220 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Moist and unstable air will remain over much of the
region through the weekend and into early next week. Heavy rain and
flash flooding are the primary concerns, and the potential for
damaging winds exists as well. The high humidity will help hold
temperatures down, especially in areas where rain occurs.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Through tonight...
Convection has fired early this afternoon along the high terrain of
Mohave and eastern San Bernardino Counties. The inverted trough
providing the dynamics for these storms has drifted to the west with
its axis aligned with the Colorado River. This makes storm motion
complicated today, with storms in the south moving northward and
storms in the north moving southward. High resolution guidance
indicate an area of storm convergence over the Arizona Strip later
this evening. This is an area we are watching closely for the
possibility of heavy rain and flooding. Given the significant amount
of moisture in the atmosphere, all storms are efficient rain
producers with the possibility of producing rain of over an inch in
a short period of time. Frequent lightning and strong outflow wind
will also be common with storms today. Storms will diminish in
coverage this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
High pressure that has been bringing record heat to the pacific
northwest and northern Nevada will begin to migrate eastward,
allowing for a southerly flow, allowing for moisture to continue to
stream in from the eastern Pacific Ocean and Gulf of California.
Widespread convection can be expected across much of the area Sunday
as the inverted trough moves northeast into California. The
thunderstorm threat remains for Monday before a drying trend
midweek. Tuesday through Thursday, thunderstorms will be mainly in
the great Basin and Mohave County. Our next monsoon surge looks to
arrive Friday with an increase in convection Friday going into the
weekend.  With the extremely moist atmosphere, expect temperatures
to remain below normal through the week.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light east to southeast winds <10kts
can be expected through tonight. Thunderstorm activity is not
expected at the terminal but thunderstorms may affect some
corridors. While it appears unlikely, outflow wind from a
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out through 04Z. Winds are expected to go
light and variable overnight into Sunday morning before light
southeasterly winds and a better chance of convection returns to the
valley Sunday afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light wind below 10kts are expected at TAF sites
areawide when thunderstorms are not around. Thunderstorms will
impact several terminals through about 04Z Sunday. KBIH can expect
to see thunderstorms this evening as well as KDAG. All convective
activity should wane by around 04Z. Light wind will return
areawide overnight.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Berc

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

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