Flash Flood Warning 323, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1256 PM PDT Mon Oct 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system over central California
will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the region today.
This low will drift off the coast of Southern California much of
the week but may bring renewed chances for rainfall by next
weekend as it swings back through the Desert Southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

Activity is unfolding about as expected thus far this afternoon,
with most of the activity focused across the Spring Mountains and
higher terrain of Inyo, San Bernardino, and Lincoln counties.
While the storms haven't been especially strong, they are slow
moving with a north to south storm motion of 10 knots or less.
This has led to a few pockets of heavier rainfall, with nearly a
half-inch of rain picked up near Mt Charleston along with some
pea sized hail. Expect activity to continue favoring western areas
through the evening, thanks to the weak closed low dropping
southward through central California aiding in upward motion over
the Sierra and Mojave Desert region, and to a lesser extent the
southern Great Basin. Storms will tent to avoid the Las Vegas
Valley, though we can't rule out some gusty outflow winds from
storms that develop to the south and west of the metro area.

Drier conditions are expected tomorrow as the closed low will
begin to drift off the coastal waters of southern California,
resulting in less upward forcing aloft across our region. Only
exception may be across southwestern San Bernardino County where a
few isolated showers may develop near Joshua Tree and impact the
Morongo Basin. Aforementioned closed low will linger in the
coastal SoCal vicinity much of the week, and some low chance but
daily weak thunderstorm activity may persist across the mountains
and high desert areas of western San Bernardino County. Otherwise,
mostly dry conditions are expected with above normal temperatures
continuing.

By this weekend, the low will finally shift inland and may spread
more widespread shower activity into the region Saturday night and
Sunday. However, with such compact closed systems like this, there
remains a large envelope of forecast possibilities. Like the NBM's
current depiction with slight chances spreading into the region
late Saturday with scattered, diurnally enhanced showers during
the day Sunday along with cooler temperatures. Rain chances will
continue to be fine tuned through the week as details become more
clear.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Generally light winds favoring
typical diurnal patterns are expected through tomorrow afternoon.
However, isolated thunderstorms forming along the spine of the
Spring Mountains as well as south of the Las Vegas Valley could
encourage some outflow winds from southwest or southerly
directions later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are unlikely at
the terminal itself, but will influence the Daggett and Beatty
approach corridors.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Scattered thunderstorms can be expected across the
Sierra and western Mojave Desert impacting KBIH and KDAG through
the afternoon hours. Elsewhere, generally light winds favoring
diurnal trends are expected. Drier conditions are expected
Tuesday with light winds continuing.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Outler

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter