Flash Flood Warning 321, NWS Las Vegas, NV

618 
WGUS75 KVEF 032051
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
151 PM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022

AZC015-032330-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0321.000000T0000Z-221003T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mohave AZ-
151 PM MST Mon Oct 3 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...

At 151 PM MST, Very heavy rainfall continues across the southern 
Hualapai Mountains and near Yucca. Rainfall amounts exceeding 1 inch 
in the past hour were observed at Hibernia Peak. Flash flooding 
remains probable across mountain roads in the Hualapai Mountains and 
low water crossings in Golden Valley and Yucca.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Kingman, Yucca, Wikieup, Wild Cow Campground, Hualapai Mountain 
  Park, Dw Ranch Road and Hualapai Peak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 11405 3520 11391 3502 11349 3456 11347
      3461 11373 3473 11415 3491 11427 3509 11431

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

CO

191 
WGUS75 KVEF 032325
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
425 PM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022

AZC015-032335-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FF.W.0321.000000T0000Z-221003T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mohave AZ-
425 PM MST Mon Oct 3 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN MOHAVE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3520 11405 3520 11391 3502 11349 3456 11347
      3461 11373 3473 11415 3491 11427 3509 11431

$$

CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1212 PM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
continue throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours for
the southern and eastern portions of our forecast area. We will
begin to dry out overnight with dry and warm conditions
persisting through mid-to-late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday evening.

Ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity in Mohave County is
expected to continue into the evening hours. Additional
convection is expected to pop-up in Clark County, eastern San
Bernardino County, and potentially eastern Lincoln County this
afternoon. The primary hazards associated with these storms are
heavy rain capable of resulting in flash flooding, gusty winds,
and frequent lightning. An upper-level shortwave digging into the
region provided the synoptic forcing responsible for these
storms. This shortwave will continue to dig southward and eastward
throughout the day, with storms moving to the southeast out ahead
of the shortwave trough axis. Any convection that pops up behind
the trough axis will experience a more southerly storm motion as
the upper-level and steering flows becomes more northerly. The
12Z HREF boasts a 70% chance of 35+ mph winds in the southern
portion of the Colorado River Valley, including Lake Havasu City,
Needles, and Laughlin. Additionally, the HREF indicates that 35+
mph winds are likely from I-40 south in Mohave County. Convection
will begin to wind down after sunset due to the loss of daytime
heating, and by approximately 04/05Z convection is expected to
have mostly dissipated.

As this trough continues to dig to the southeast and upper-level
flow across the forecast area becomes more northerly, we will see
things begin to dry out overnight and into tomorrow with PWat
values falling below 1.0" across the area by tomorrow afternoon.
This shortwave will stall out over the Four-Corners region late
Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday.

An amplified ridge nosing inland from the West Coast up through
western Canada will keep our region dry and warm Wednesday and
Thursday but the medium range ensembles indicate a broad closed
upper low spinning up over New Mexico then retrograding across
southern Arizona and northwest Mexico Friday through Sunday which
would produce an easterly and may allow lingering moisture to spread
back into Mohave County and possibly even over eastern San
Bernardino and Clark counties by Sunday for a slight chance of
thunderstorms over the mountains. Temperatures trend downward
slightly for the weekend with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s
for the Mojave Desert zones which is close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Northeast winds around 7-10 kts are
expected through the afternoon, but there is the possibility of
various outflow boundaries that could bring varying wind directions
and speeds at times. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around
the Las Vegas Valley this afternoon, but confidence is low that
storms will directly impact the terminal. Storms are expected to
dissipate by late afternoon with clear skies and generally light
winds overnight. Drier conditions and generally light winds are
expected Tuesday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Generally light and diurnal wind patterns anticipated
today, though sites in the Colorado River Valley should see
northerly breezes this afternoon around 10 kts. SCT thunderstorms
this afternoon across mainly southern Mohave, Clark, and eastern San
Bernardino Counties with wind, hail, and heavy rain being the
primary threats. These are expected to last to early evening before
dissipating with generally clear skies overnight. ISOLD storms
possible over northwest Arizona Tuesday with overall coverage being
much less.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Adair
AVIATION...Gorelow

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