Flash Flood Warning 171, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1235 PM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A moist monsoonal flow will remain in place through
next week leading to a chance of heavy rain producing
thunderstorms across parts of the eastern Mojave Desert and
southern Great Basin. Generally dry weather is expected through
the weekend across the Sierra and Western Mojave Desert. These
western areas will see an increase again next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...This Evening through Sunday.

For this evening, expecting any afternoon thunderstorm development
to end quickly after sunset as instability is already limited/capped
across the region due to clouds. The exception will be Lincoln
County where models show a consistent signal for an area of
precipitation to shift south after 00Z into northern and central
Lincoln County. HREF 3hr QPF for 1inch highlights this area from 00Z-
06Z as well. Ensured to linger precipitation chances through at
least 06Z for this area and increased precipitation amounts from
previous forecast per these model trends. Light showery activity may
continue at times after 06Z in Lincoln County through northern
Mohave, but impacts with these showers will be limited.

For Sunday- Very little change is expected in the overall airmass in
the next 24hrs, with high PWAT anomalies continuing to sit over
eastern San Bernardino, Clark, eastern Nye, Lincoln, and Mohave
counties. Model vorticity fields as well as simulated satellite
suggest continued influence from remnant MCVs in this area as well
on Sunday. But, compared to what we see today, expecting less cloud
cover Sunday morning which will lead to higher instability and a
potentially uncapped atmosphere. This should lead to more widespread
afternoon convection compared to today with potentially higher
impacts. Of note, HREF probabilities for over 1inch of 6hr QPF
suggests heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding in central
Mohave County through the higher terrain of Clark County. May also
see another complex of precipitation shift south through central and
southern Lincoln County into Mohave County tomorrow evening and
early overnight, which would be another focus for higher impacts.
Given the consistent signals from model reflectivities and
probabilities as well as continued high moisture available for storms
that develop- extended the Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

Ensembles show a weather pattern shift next week with high
pressure becoming repositioned further west over the central
Rockies. Ensemble mean forecasts have an inverted trough moving
westward across southern Texas and northern Mexico through the
week bringing additional moisture to the southwest by late next
week. This deeper pool of moisture is forecast to be south of our
area but a favorable southeast steering flow could send some of
this deeper moisture into our area resulting in an increasing
threat of widespread heavy rain and associated flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Not expecting thunderstorm activity
directly over the terminal, but chances of storms in the vicinity
are likely, particularly over the higher terrain to the west and
south of the Las Vegas Valley. These storms have the potential to
kick off gusty winds from their direction. Storms aside, winds will
generally remain below 10 kts. Additionally, confidence is low, but
storms forming across Lincoln County tonight have the potential to
kick off a north-northeasterly outflow between 06 and 07Z tonight,
with gusts to 20 kts possible. SCT-BKN aoa 12 kft through the TAF
period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and
southeastern California...Best chances of vicinity thunderstorms for
both the Las Vegas Valley and the Colorado River Valley through 02Z
tonight, with gusty winds possible from their direction. Otherwise,
winds will favor diurnal speeds and directions. SCT-BKN aoa 12 kft
with lower ceilings expected with stronger nearby storm activity.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Salmen
AVIATION...Varian

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
451 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JOSHUA TREE             34.13N 116.32W
08/13/2022                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            CHP REPORTS FLOODING ACROSS ALL FOUR LANES
            ALONG STATE ROUTE 62 AT HILLVIEW ROAD.

0335 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 WSW GOLDEN VALLEY     35.18N 114.31W
08/13/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MOHAVE COUNTY OFFICIALS CLOSED SOUTH EGAR
            ROAD FROM ABRIGO ROAD TO WEST SHINARUMP
            DRIVE DUE TO FLOODING.

0335 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW GOLDEN VALLEY      35.19N 114.29W
08/13/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MOHAVE COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED SOUTH
            ESTRELLA ROAD CLOSED FROM WEST REDWALL DRIVE
            TO WEST SHINARUMP DRIVE DUE TO FLOODING.

0350 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSW GOLDEN VALLEY     35.16N 114.24W
08/13/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MOHAVE COUNTY OFFICIALS CLOSED WEST
            SHINARUMP DRIVE FROM SOUTH COLORADO ROAD TO
            SOUTH EGAR ROAD DUE TO FLOODING.

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE KINGMAN            35.21N 114.02W
08/13/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED FLOODING ALONG HARRISON
            STREET IN KINGMAN FROM A BLOCK NORTH OF US
            66 TO MOTOR STREET. ROAD IS IMPASSABLE.

0410 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE KINGMAN           35.20N 114.03W
08/13/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED FAIRGROUNDS BOULEVARD
            FLOODED NORTH OF US 66 IN KINGMAN. ROAD IS
            IMPASSABLE.

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE KINGMAN            35.21N 114.01W
08/13/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND ONE
            TREE SPLIT AS A RESULT OF THUNDERSTORM
            RELATED WIND GUSTS IN KINGMAN ON ANDY DEVINE
            BY INTERSTATE 40.

0440 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE KINGMAN           35.21N 114.04W
08/13/2022  E1.30 INCH       MOHAVE             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED A ROOF CAVE-IN AT THE
            SAFEWAY ON THE INTERSECTION OF STOCKTON HILL
            AND DETROIT IN KINGMAN AS WELL AS PARKING
            LOT PONDING BEHIND THE STORE.

0440 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW GOLDEN VALLEY     35.23N 114.29W
08/13/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MOHAVE COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORT NORTH
            ESTRELLA ROAD IS CLOSED FROM WEST CHINO
            DRIVE TO WEST ZUNI DRIVE DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

VARIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
522 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      9 SW DOLAN SPRINGS      35.49N 114.38W
08/13/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            WEST COTTONWOOD ROAD IS CLOSED FROM HIGHWAY
            93 TO MILE MARKER 13 DUE TO WEATHER. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
619 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      13 NW DOLAN SPRINGS     35.70N 114.47W
08/13/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            WEST WHITE HILLS ROAD IS CLOSED FROM HIGHWAY
            93 TO MILE MARKER FOUR DUE TO FLOODING. TIME
            ESTIMATED USING RADAR.

&&

MS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
629 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      9 SW DOLAN SPRINGS      35.49N 114.38W
08/13/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 9
            SW DOLAN SPRINGS. WEST COTTONWOOD ROAD IS
            CLOSED FROM HIGHWAY 93 TO MILE MARKER 13 DUE
            TO WEATHER. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      13 NW DOLAN SPRINGS     35.70N 114.47W
08/13/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 13
            NW DOLAN SPRINGS. WEST WHITE HILLS ROAD IS
            CLOSED FROM HIGHWAY 93 TO MILE MARKER FOUR
            DUE TO FLOODING. TIME ESTIMATED USING RADAR.

&&