Flash Flood Warning 169, NWS Las Vegas, NV

810 
WGUS75 KVEF 132302
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
402 PM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022

CAC071-140145-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0169.000000T0000Z-220814T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Bernardino CA-
402 PM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM PDT THIS 
EVENING FOR SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

At 402 PM PDT, local law enforcement reported thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain in Joshua Tree. California Highway Patrol 
reported flooding across all four lanes of State Route 62 by 
Hillview Road in Joshua Tree, CA. Up to 1 inch of rain has fallen. 
Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned 
area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Twentynine Palms, Yucca Valley, Twentynine Palms Base, Joshua Tree 
  Lake Campground, Joshua Tree and Twentynine Palms Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 11644 3414 11647 3421 11644 3426 11644
      3430 11646 3424 11582 3404 11577 3403 11600
      3408 11600 3408 11604 3411 11604 3411 11605
      3412 11605 3412 11626 3408 11626

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

MS

796 
WGUS75 KVEF 140150
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
650 PM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022

CAC071-140200-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FF.W.0169.000000T0000Z-220814T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Bernardino CA-
650 PM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO 
COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 AM PDT Monday for portions 
of northwest Arizona, southeast California and Nevada.

LAT...LON 3408 11644 3414 11647 3421 11644 3426 11644
      3430 11646 3424 11582 3404 11577 3403 11600
      3408 11600 3408 11604 3411 11604 3411 11605
      3412 11605 3412 11626 3408 11626

$$

JA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1235 PM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A moist monsoonal flow will remain in place through
next week leading to a chance of heavy rain producing
thunderstorms across parts of the eastern Mojave Desert and
southern Great Basin. Generally dry weather is expected through
the weekend across the Sierra and Western Mojave Desert. These
western areas will see an increase again next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...This Evening through Sunday.

For this evening, expecting any afternoon thunderstorm development
to end quickly after sunset as instability is already limited/capped
across the region due to clouds. The exception will be Lincoln
County where models show a consistent signal for an area of
precipitation to shift south after 00Z into northern and central
Lincoln County. HREF 3hr QPF for 1inch highlights this area from 00Z-
06Z as well. Ensured to linger precipitation chances through at
least 06Z for this area and increased precipitation amounts from
previous forecast per these model trends. Light showery activity may
continue at times after 06Z in Lincoln County through northern
Mohave, but impacts with these showers will be limited.

For Sunday- Very little change is expected in the overall airmass in
the next 24hrs, with high PWAT anomalies continuing to sit over
eastern San Bernardino, Clark, eastern Nye, Lincoln, and Mohave
counties. Model vorticity fields as well as simulated satellite
suggest continued influence from remnant MCVs in this area as well
on Sunday. But, compared to what we see today, expecting less cloud
cover Sunday morning which will lead to higher instability and a
potentially uncapped atmosphere. This should lead to more widespread
afternoon convection compared to today with potentially higher
impacts. Of note, HREF probabilities for over 1inch of 6hr QPF
suggests heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding in central
Mohave County through the higher terrain of Clark County. May also
see another complex of precipitation shift south through central and
southern Lincoln County into Mohave County tomorrow evening and
early overnight, which would be another focus for higher impacts.
Given the consistent signals from model reflectivities and
probabilities as well as continued high moisture available for storms
that develop- extended the Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

Ensembles show a weather pattern shift next week with high
pressure becoming repositioned further west over the central
Rockies. Ensemble mean forecasts have an inverted trough moving
westward across southern Texas and northern Mexico through the
week bringing additional moisture to the southwest by late next
week. This deeper pool of moisture is forecast to be south of our
area but a favorable southeast steering flow could send some of
this deeper moisture into our area resulting in an increasing
threat of widespread heavy rain and associated flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Not expecting thunderstorm activity
directly over the terminal, but chances of storms in the vicinity
are likely, particularly over the higher terrain to the west and
south of the Las Vegas Valley. These storms have the potential to
kick off gusty winds from their direction. Storms aside, winds will
generally remain below 10 kts. Additionally, confidence is low, but
storms forming across Lincoln County tonight have the potential to
kick off a north-northeasterly outflow between 06 and 07Z tonight,
with gusts to 20 kts possible. SCT-BKN aoa 12 kft through the TAF
period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and
southeastern California...Best chances of vicinity thunderstorms for
both the Las Vegas Valley and the Colorado River Valley through 02Z
tonight, with gusty winds possible from their direction. Otherwise,
winds will favor diurnal speeds and directions. SCT-BKN aoa 12 kft
with lower ceilings expected with stronger nearby storm activity.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Salmen
AVIATION...Varian

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1246 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW VALENTINE          35.36N 113.69W
08/12/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MOHAVE COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORT HACKBERRY
            ROAD IS CLOSED FROM US 66 TO MAIN STREET DUE
            TO FLOODING. TIME OF FLASH FLOODING
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

VARIAN