Flash Flood Warning 135, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1258 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...With moisture in place, monsoon activity is forecast to
continue through the week. Scattered thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon, especially in southern Nevada through
western Arizona. Flash flooding will be the primary concern with
these storms. Cooler temperatures are expected throughout the
week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...The Rest of Today and Thursday.

Mesoanalysis and short term models through the afternoon continue to
highlight an increased risk for thunderstorms with heavy rain and
flash flooding for southern Nevada, eastern San Bernardino County,
and all of Mohave County. PWATs around 2 SD above normal are noted
over the region. In addition, despite morning and early afternoon
sunshine that should allow for dry air to mix out dewpoints, many
locations still show dewpoints over 60F. Through the rest of the
afternoon into the evening, thunderstorms will continue to impact
parts of the region. Of note, short term models want to focus
thunderstorms over Mohave County along and north of I-40, the high
terrain of Clark County potentially impacting areas such as Mt
Charleston and traffic on I-40 or US-95 around Primm, Jean, and
Searchlight, and western Lincoln County. Thunderstorms so far today
have already reported rainfall rates of 2-3inch/hr or more. Further
west, isolated thunderstorms with heavy rain are possible but should
not be as widespread in all areas. Inyo County is the only area that
should remain dry this evening. A few storms may also have strong
winds as elevated cores with tall storms dropping quickly and/or wet
microbursts.

Storms will dissipate early tonight. Expecting all convection to be
over by around 06Z tonight, however isolated showers with limited
impacts are possible after 06Z. For Thursday morning through the
afternoon, models hint at another MCV or piece of energy pivoting
through the region, but are unsure where it will develop and move
through. This will drive the highest precipitation chances and
impacts, so will need to watch this feature closely. HREF 3hr QPF of
1inch PMMs highlight Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave again tomorrow
afternoon, which would be the area that is most likely the wave
would move through. May need to extend the Flash Flood Watch for
parts of the area as PWATs will remain high Thursday so heavy rain
and flash flooding will continue to be a threat for where
thunderstorms develop.

.LONG TERM...Friday through next week.

There is no sign of a pattern change in the extended forecast.
Ensemble guidance continues to show a dominant 500mb high over the
Four Corners/Southern Rockies region. This keeps us under south-
southeasterly flow which supplies the monsoon moisture. GFS and
ECMWF ensemble means show PWATs at or above 1.25" through next week.
Thus, above-normal rain chances and seasonal temperatures are
expected to persist through the period.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...A moist southeasterly flow will
continue to bring abundant cloud cover across southern Nevada.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher
terrain around the Las Vegas Valley and potentially move into the
valley between 21-00z this evening. Brief heavy rain, gusty outflow
winds, and lightning will be possible. Outside of any thunderstorm
influences look for south winds around 6-8 kts. Storms are expected
to dissipate this evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
through this afternoon generally across eastern San Bernardino,
Clark, Lincoln and Mohave Counties. Any storms will likely impact
KLAS/KHND/KVGT/KEED/KIFP TAF sites with only slight chances
elsewhere. Storm movement today will be towards the north-northwest.
Cloud bases 10-12 kft MSL. Main impacts will be heavy rain, gusty
outflow winds, and lightning. Storms are expected to dissipate this
evening.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Gorelow

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
104 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DOLAN SPRINGS           35.60N 114.27W
08/10/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DOLAN SPRINGS FIRE REPORTED 6 INCHES OF
            WATER FLOWING OVER PIERCE FERRY ROAD NEAR
            THE FIRE STATION. LOTS OF ROCK AND DEBRIS IN
            THE ROAD.

&&

AG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
118 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     FLASH FLOOD      9 SSW EAGLE VALLEY RESE 37.91N 114.27W
08/09/2022                   LINCOLN            NV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED FLOODING.

&&

MS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
120 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 ENE CHLORIDE         35.44N 114.03W
08/10/2022                   MOHAVE             AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOOD CONTROL WEBCAM SHOWS FLOODING AT VOCK
            CANYON AT STOCKTON HILL ROAD.

&&

MS