Flash Flood Warning 101, NWS Las Vegas, NV

917 
WGUS75 KVEF 022238
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
338 PM PDT Tue Aug 2 2022

CAC027-030045-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0101.000000T0000Z-220803T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inyo CA-
338 PM PDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM PDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL INYO COUNTY...

At 338 PM PDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced heavy 
rain along Emigrant Canyon Road south of Stovepipe Wells. Flash 
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Stovepipe Wells and Emigrant Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 11738 3670 11723 3674 11699 3624 11711

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

CO

219 
WGUS75 KVEF 030036
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
536 PM PDT Tue Aug 2 2022

CAC027-030046-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FF.W.0101.000000T0000Z-220803T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inyo CA-
536 PM PDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
CENTRAL INYO COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3646 11738 3670 11723 3674 11699 3624 11711

$$

CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1237 PM PDT Tue Aug 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...The same areas will be at risk again Wednesday that
see storms today before another push of deeper moisture arrives
Thursday, increasing thunderstorm chances areawide Friday through
the weekend. Temperatures will trend upward through mid week
before reversing course when the moisture increases late in the
week. &&

.SHORT TERM...Through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of the region. High-res models show best development
over the high terrain of Inyo County and the Southern Great Basin,
and Clark County, which matches up well with 4hr Max Reflectivity
Probabilities on HREF for today.

Thunderstorm activity will diminish around sunset as we lose heating
and instability wanes. A dry night and quiet night is expected for the
region.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible Wednesday afternoon.
Currently thinking that convection will develop in similar areas to
what we saw today, though there most widespread activity may be
more focused in Nye and Lincoln counties Thursday afternoon. While
instability will be favorable for thunderstorm development with HREF
showing decent probabilities for at least 1000 J/Kg of surface based
CAPE through the area, with no substantial forcing and weak steering
flow- expecting thunderstorm activity to mainly be terrain driven.
Also expecting slightly less coverage overall compared to today as
mid levels warm slightly with the transition of the are of high
pressure further west. The threat for flash flooding will also be
lower tomorrow as there is PWATs drop back slightly and overall
thunderstorm activity will be lower. HREF 3hr PMM for 1in of QPF
has much lower probabilities than what has been shown the past week.
Still could see isolated flash flooding in higher terrain where the
best chance for storms will be Wednesday afternoon. With slightly
drier air moving in briefly Wednesday, the wind threat with any
thunderstorms could be slightly higher, however still should not be
a widespread threat as instability overall should be lower than what
we have been seeing.

Any thunderstorms that develop Wednesday afternoon will quickly end
after sunset. With the introduction of slightly drier air, high
temperatures Wednesday

.LONG TERM...Thursday into Early Next Week

Another surge of monsoonal moisture is likely Wednesday night
into to Thursday as the area of high pressure settles back over
the Four Corners region, with high moisture remaining in place
over the region through the weekend and early next week. Daily
details will depend on small scale features each day, so
information about exact impacts and expectation is not definable
at this time. One period of higher impact weather we are watching
closely is Thursday and Friday. High probabilities for PWATs over
1 inch will be in place over much of the region as a piece of
energy rotates around the high pressure. This wave will likely
trigger shower and thunderstorm activity in an environment
favorable for flash flooding and other thunderstorm impacts such
as gusty winds and lightning. Will n eed to fine tune QPF details
as we get more hi-res data. After Friday, confidence in forecast
details goes way down as it is unknown how the wave and ongoing
convection Thursday and Friday will impact the overall set up for
the weekend onward. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will generally be light and
variable through this afternoon, but at times favor an east to
southeast direction. After 21Z, there may be more influences from
various outflow boundaries that bring varying wind gusts up to 25
kts. Showers and thunderstorms will generally remain over the higher
terrain, but some convection popping up in the valley can't be ruled
out between 22z-02z, but confidence remains too low to include in
the TAF. Convection will clear this evening with SCT clouds around
15k overnight along with light southwest winds.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop over mainly the higher terrain through this afternoon. Any
storm will be capable of producing strong gusty outflow winds and
CIGS down to around 8k feet. Confidence remains low in determining
if any storm will be in the vicinity of any terminal. Winds will
generally remain 10-15 kts or less, but could gust to around 25 kts
with any outflow winds.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Gorelow

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