Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1043 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

Semi-active flow to continue through the end of the work week as
an upper trough slowly advances over the region. The pattern will
then transition to semi-unsettled zonal flow with weak impulse
possibly supporting shower chances at times the remainder of the
period. Ample deep layer moisture resides just to the SE of the
FA, with sfc dewpoints in the 70s across portions of eastern NE.
Sfc based convection is ongoing over eastern SD and NE associated
with the main ll push of moisture via a passing impulse. Enough
diurnal heating could allow an isolated storm or two to fire in
scentral SD this afternoon along a weak sfc boundary. However,
high level smoke from NM wildfires is limiting insolation with
convection unlikely. Main upper trough will lift NE tonight and
support a strong push of elevated theta-e across the FA. Focus for
the strongest forcing will be across the NW FA, from around the
Black Hills, northeast into NW SD. Given the amount of elevated
instability exceeding 1000 J/kg with ample effective shear over 50
knots, a few elevated strong to severe storms will be possible
with isolated supercells. Have opted for a severe mention there
for tonight with hail being the main threat. Precip chances will
taper off quickly to the SE with the bulk of forcing concentrated
on the nose of elevated theta-e adv zone. System will wrap up Thur
with the deformation zone skirting the NW FA. Dry slot will push
into the central FA, with much lower chances for precip on the SD
plains, outside far NW SD. Strong gusty SW winds will develop in
the afternoon over the SW FA in the dry slot, with potential adv
levels to warning level winds there for a period. Something the
next shift could look over. There is some inconsistency wrt to
wind speeds and mix down, supporting too much uncertainly attm for
wind headlines. Upper cold pool will time over the region Friday
although moisture will be limited. This will support slight
chances for shra, maybe a few thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Things will dry out this weekend although a few weak impulses
could support a few showers at times. Otherwise, seasonal temps
can be expected through the remainder of the period, with highs in
the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 1043 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022

IFR/LIFR conditions will develop tonight across northeast Wyoming
and western South Dakota, as scattered SHRA/TSRA initiate
overnight. Storms will develop over the next two or three hours,
then push northward, becoming more widespread late overnight.
Improvement is expected tomorrow from the southwest as drier air
pushes in, with winds gusting to 30kt.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
450 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-071-
121300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-Mellette-
Todd-Tripp-Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
450 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022 /550 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western South
Dakota and northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase late today and
especially tonight. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of
severe thunderstorms late today and tonight, meaning that isolated
severe storms are possible. The main threats from any severe
storms will be large hail and strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. There is a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across far
south central South Dakota in the afternoon.

Gusty westerly winds are possible Thursday and Friday as the
system moves over and eventually northeast of the region. At this
time, some gusts of 40 to 50 mph look possible across much of the
plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

SDZ042>044-121300-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-
450 AM MDT Wed May 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwestern
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight. An
isolated strong storm is possible with hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

Gusty westerly winds are possible Thursday and Friday as the
system moves over and eventually northeast of the region. At this
time, some gusts of 40 to 50 mph look possible across parts of
the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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