Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
156 PM MST Wed Aug 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A favorable flow pattern for daily thunderstorms will
persist through the weekend as the upper high remains centered
near the Four Corners region. Daytime temperature will remain near
seasonable readings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Radar shows a few isolated thunderstorms forming
over northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Skies are mostly
clear elsewhere with a few buildups over the Sky Islands. A weak
inverted trough is moving into Sonora from Chihuahua and will
provide some upper level support for storms this afternoon and
evening. The forecast still looks on track with storms first
forming over the White Mountains and expanding by late
afternoon/early evening to the rest of southeast Arizona. The best
chances for Tucson look to be between 5 pm and 10 pm. CAMs also
show an outflow moving from Pima County northwestward towards
Phoenix this evening. This could lead to some blowing dust issues
in Pinal County. Besides the wind heavy rainfall causing flash
flooding will also be a threat. After midnight there will likely
be isolated showers that persist for a few hours.

The monsoon ridge stays in a favorable location through the
weekend meandering around the high plains. Models show a few more
inverted troughs rotating around the southern periphery of the
high through early next week. After today the next one models
bring in moves through late Thursday into Friday. Another inverted
trough looks to move through Saturday into Sunday. Expect these
time periods to be fairly active. There will be plenty of moisture
as well as instability to feed storms. With continued heavy
rainfall from storms runoff will be easier and easier to generate
and it will take less rainfall to lead to flash flooding. The only
thing that could inhibit storm activity would be overnight
convection that stabilizes the atmosphere. Otherwise expect
continued daily afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm activity
into early next week. Temperatures will be around normal for the
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z.
SCT clouds at 7k-10k ft AGL with SCT-BKN above 15k ft AGL. Expect
scattered TSRA/SHRA around terminals late this afternoon through
the evening. Expect another round of scattered TSRA/SHRA Thursday
afternoon. CIGS may briefly lower to 4k- 6k ft AGL with the TSRA,
along with vis briefly down to 2-4 miles and wind gusts to 40+
kts. Otherwise, SFC wind will generally be less than 12 kts,
favoring a SWLY/SLY direction during the afternoon hours and
variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An active monsoon period is expected to continue
through the week, with daily rounds of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The typical threats of strong gusty winds and heavy
rainfall remain, as well as the potential for precipitation outside
the normal afternoon/evening cycles. Flash flooding will also
remain a concern each day this week. Wind trends are otherwise
light following a diurnal pattern.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
423 PM MST Wed Aug 10 2022

AZZ504-110015-
Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail-
423 PM MST Wed Aug 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Pima County
through 515 PM MST...

At 423 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
South Tucson, or near Tucson, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tucson, Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Casas Adobes, Flowing Wells,
South Tucson and Catalina Foothills.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 252 and 262.
 Interstate 19 between mile markers 62 and 63.
 Route 77 between mile markers 70 and 73.
 Route 86 near mile marker 171.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3218 11090 3217 11099 3230 11108 3233 11091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 169DEG 9KT 3221 11096

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
433 PM MST Wed Aug 10 2022

AZZ503-504-507-513-110015-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
433 PM MST Wed Aug 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeast Pima and
northeastern Santa Cruz Counties through 515 PM MST...

At 432 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sonoita, or 22 miles southeast of Green Valley, moving northwest at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 45 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sonoita, Elgin and Madera Canyon.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 82 between mile markers 27 and 39.
 Route 83 between mile markers 28 and 51.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3168 11053 3162 11071 3175 11099 3192 11065
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 155DEG 9KT 3171 11067

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
605 PM MST Wed Aug 10 2022

AZZ504-507-514-110145-
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount
Lemmon/Summerhaven-Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
605 PM MST Wed Aug 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pima
County through 645 PM MST...

At 605 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Vail, or 14 miles southeast of Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 45 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
East Tucson, Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Tanque Verde, Vail,
Saguaro National Park East, Corona De Tucson and Rita Ranch.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 269 and 292.
 Route 83 between mile markers 53 and 58.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 11046 3189 11056 3200 11091 3232 11079
      3235 11065
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 114DEG 9KT 3207 11066

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

WJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
621 PM MST Wed Aug 10 2022

AZZ509-511-110200-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including
Clifton/Safford-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount
Graham-
621 PM MST Wed Aug 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Graham
County through 700 PM MST...

At 621 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Roper Lake State Park, or 9 miles south of Safford, moving northwest
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Safford, Thatcher, Roper Lake State Park, Pima, Central, Swift Trail
Junction, Mount Graham and Frye Mesa Dam.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 70 between mile markers 330 and 342.
 Route 191 between mile markers 107 and 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3267 10954 3261 10964 3276 11003 3295 10977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 131DEG 11KT 3270 10966

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JRM