Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
234 PM MST Sun Aug 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...A more favorable flow pattern for daily thunderstorms
will persist through this coming week as the upper high becomes
centered over the Four Corners region. Daytime temperature will
remain near seasonable readings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Please see mid morning update for a more detailed
breakdown of the storm environment and forecast.

The special 18Z sounding showed a more favorable storm
environment with the onion look eroding. This should continue to
erode with the possibility of strong to perhaps severe
thunderstorms. Expect storms to continue to develop along the
International Border and across the Mogollon Rim. These storms
will likely move into the lower deserts becoming more organized
with time. Strong winds, blowing dust, and marginally severe hail
remain the main risks. As the storms move from Nogales/Tucson west
into central/western Pima County, the flash flood threat
increases.

Due to the IT, storm chances may persist well into the late
evening and overnight.

For the extended forecast, models continued to depict a favorable
flow pattern for daily scattered showers and thunderstorms
through much of this coming week as the upper high sets up over
the Four Corners region. Daytime temperatures will remain near
seasonable readings.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 09/00Z. Now through 08/06Z, SCT-BKN
clouds at 7k-10k ft AGL, with the clouds slowing diminishing aft
08/08Z. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA primarily between now and 08/05Z.
CIGS may briefly lower to 4k-6k ft AGL with the TSRA, along with
mountain obscurations and wind gusts to 40+ kts. Otherwise, SFC
wind will generally be less than 12 kts, favoring a WLY/NWLY
direction during the afternoon hours and variable in direction at
other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

NOTE - Some blowing dust and isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible during the early evening. Small
hail, flash flooding, and strong gusty winds are possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An active monsoon period is expected to continue
through the coming week, with daily rounds of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The typical threats of strong gusty winds and heavy
rainfall remain, as well as the potential for precipitation outside
the normal afternoon/evening cycles. Wind trends are otherwise light
following a diurnal pattern.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MST tonight for AZZ501>504-507-
513>515.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ501-
502-504-505.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
624 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SSE SIERRA VISTA      31.50N 110.27W
08/07/2022  M74 MPH          COCHISE            AZ   PUBLIC

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION MEASURED 74 MPH
            WIND GUST.

&&

KRG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
626 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE SIERRA VISTA       31.53N 110.28W
08/07/2022  M1.10 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.1 INCHES IN 17 MINUTES.

&&

KD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
641 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             9 SE SIERRA VISTA       31.49N 110.21W
08/07/2022  E1.00 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF
            QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            KINO ROAD AND CANADA DRIVE.

&&

KRG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
704 PM MST SUN AUG 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     HAIL             1 NNE HUACHUCA CITY     31.65N 110.33W
08/07/2022  E0.75 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER 3065 REPORTS HAIL SIZE BETWEEN DIME
            AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND GUSTS ESTIMATED
            TO 41MPH AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

JVT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
705 PM MST Sun Aug 7 2022

AZZ504-507-514-080245-
Santa Catalina and Rincon Mountains including Mount
Lemmon/Summerhaven-Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
705 PM MST Sun Aug 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pima
County through 745 PM MST...

At 705 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Saguaro National Park East, or 17 miles northeast of Davis-Monthan
Air Force Base, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tucson, Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Tanque Verde and Saguaro
National Park East.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3234 11064 3225 11049 3205 11067 3220 11088
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 047DEG 10KT 3227 11060

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JRM

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