Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
219 PM MST Wed Jul 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer than average temperatures will continue this week
with a daily chance of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, mainly south and east of Tucson. An uptick in monsoon
activity is expected beginning this weekend with temperatures
returning closer to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday.

Convection early this afternoon remains focused over the White
Mtns with further development expected over eastern Cochise
County and south of the international border going into this
evening. CAMs continue to hit a similar evolution of activity as
yesterday with strongest storms this evening into tonight. There
could be some organization to storms as they transition from east
to west with deep layer shear values in the 20-30 knot range
still present. Instability is forecast to remain highest south of
the border with SBCAPE values on our side of the border between
1000-1500 J/kg east and south of Tucson this afternoon. As a large
complex of storms develops south of the border, strong activity
could clip our southern zones of Cochise, Santa Cruz, and Pima
counties. Strong winds, blowing dust, and locally heavy rain will
be the main concerns. There will be the additional upper level
support of a passing shortwave overnight tonight which could also
fuel scattered showers and storms into the morning hours on
Thursday across portions of the area.

Thursday through the Weekend. Scattered showers and storms
will continue tomorrow and Friday with best chances east and
south of Tucson again. Ridge centered over northern Arizona will
shift eastward toward the Four Corners on Friday and continue to
push eastward into the weekend. Heat remains a concern with Friday
looking to be the hottest day of the week. With little relief at
night and the compounding effect of several days of heat, have
gone ahead and issued an Excessive Heat Warning for Friday. Friday
remains the transition day as the flow pattern begins to change
and the door becomes open to the next southerly moisture surge and
therefore, next uptick in monsoonal activity. By this weekend,
more widespread showers and storms are forecast with overnight
activity possible. Weaker flow pattern will also increase the
flash flood threat with storms that do develop. With heights
decreasing as the ridge pushes eastward along with increasing
moisture levels, temps will come back down to seasonal normals
late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 22/00Z.
Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA will start to ramp up later this afternoon
becoming scattered TSRA/SHRA this evening, slowly dissipating
overnight. Lower cigs between 6-10k ft MSL can be expected around
precipitation, including gusty winds up around 40 kts. Otherwise,
cloud bases range 10-15k ft MSL with diurnal sfc winds generally
less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will remain several degrees above average the next
couple days with daily thunderstorm chances. Storms become more
widespread this weekend into next week as moisture increases area-
wide, providing a greater potential for heavy rainfall. Strong and
erratic outflow winds accompany the stronger storms, with
otherwise diurnal wind trends.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Friday for AZZ501-
502-504-505.

&&

Public...Guillet
Aviation...Howlett
Fire Weather....Howlett

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
131 PM MST Wed Jul 20 2022

AZZ509-510-202115-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
131 PM MST Wed Jul 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Graham
and northern Greenlee Counties through 215 PM MST...

At 131 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles south of Hannagan Meadow, or 24 miles north of Clifton, moving
south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rose Peak.

This includes Route 191 between mile markers 179 and 217.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 10968 3353 10958 3351 10905 3317 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 355DEG 11KT 3339 10933

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
215 PM MST Wed Jul 20 2022

AZZ509-510-202200-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
215 PM MST Wed Jul 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Graham and
central Greenlee Counties through 300 PM MST...

At 215 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles northwest of Morenci, or 22 miles northwest of Clifton, moving
southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Safford, Clifton, Thatcher, Solomon, Morenci, Safford Regional
Airport, Pima, Central, York, Three Way and Guthrie.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 70 between mile markers 312 and 372.
 Route 75 between mile markers 392 and 398.
 Route 78 between mile markers 155 and 158.
 Route 191 between mile markers 119 and 193.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 10970 3332 10917 3270 10919 3285 11000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 024DEG 17KT 3317 10963

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
259 PM MST Wed Jul 20 2022

AZZ509>511-202245-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan
Meadow-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount Graham-
259 PM MST Wed Jul 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Graham
and central Greenlee Counties through 345 PM MST...

At 259 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clifton, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Safford, Clifton, Thatcher, Solomon, Morenci, Roper Lake State Park,
Safford Regional Airport, Pima, Duncan, Central, York, Franklin,
Three Way, Swift Trail Junction, Guthrie and Frye Mesa Dam.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 70 between mile markers 331 and 385.
 Route 75 between mile markers 379 and 398.
 Route 78 between mile markers 155 and 174.
 Route 191 between mile markers 113 and 178.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3275 10990 3317 10972 3317 10905 3261 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 024DEG 16KT 3303 10924

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
344 PM MST Wed Jul 20 2022

AZZ509-510-202330-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
344 PM MST Wed Jul 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Graham
and southeastern Greenlee Counties through 430 PM MST...

At 344 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Clifton, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clifton, Morenci, Duncan, York, Franklin, Three Way and Guthrie.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 70 between mile markers 356 and 385.
 Route 75 between mile markers 379 and 398.
 Route 78 between mile markers 155 and 161.
 Route 191 between mile markers 140 and 164.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3262 10952 3306 10931 3299 10905 3291 10905
      3291 10904 3257 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 014DEG 9KT 3293 10911

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
516 PM MST Wed Jul 20 2022

AZZ508-512-513-210100-
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Chiricahua Mountains including
Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet
including Douglas/Willcox-
516 PM MST Wed Jul 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Cochise County through 600 PM MST...

At 516 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Willcox, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Willcox, Pearce-Sunsites, Cochise and Kansas Settlement.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 181 between mile markers 47 and 48.
 Route 186 between mile markers 327 and 351.
 Route 191 between mile markers 48 and 63.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3229 10982 3227 10954 3187 10952 3196 11003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 014DEG 8KT 3211 10969

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AWH