Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
143 PM MST Tue Sep 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into
this evening, mainly for areas east of Tucson. Thereafter, a drier
weather pattern will develop with rain chances decreasing and ending
by Thursday. Temperatures will be near to below normal through the
Wednesday, then increasing to above normal by Friday and through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have
developed more or less as expected primarily across Cochise County.
We've had some locally heavy rain of around 1 inch in a few spots,
especially around Tombstone along with some small hail. To the west,
across eastern Pima County including the Tucson area, showers have
struggled so far but with continued daytime heating, we can't rule
out a few showers and thunderstorms as far west as Tucson through
the afternoon. Areas west of Tucson should remain dry. Main concern
this afternoon is locally heavy rain, along with gusty winds and
hail with the stronger storms. Thunderstorm activity is expected to
diminish after sunset.

As the trough axis aloft pushes east, the atmosphere will continue
to gradually dry out. Perhaps a few showers and thunderstorms in the
White Mountains and Sky Islands closer to the New Mexico border
Wednesday but otherwise dry conditions are expected to prevail. West
to southwest flow will continue the remainder of the week into the
weekend and with ridging just to our south and east along with a
drier atmosphere, that will allow temperatures to warm up above
seasonal normals starting Friday.

By Sunday and into next work week, we'll be watching the evolution
of a trough across the western CONUS. This may allow the flow to
become southerly enough to import some moisture with some renewed
shower and thunderstorms chances Monday and Tuesday. Confidence on
this is still low and we've got plenty of time to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/00Z.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA with CIGS 6-8kft AGL continue thru about 14/03Z
mainly east of KTUS Otherwise, clouds will be SCT-BKN AOA 12kft AGL.
Light and variable SFC wind shifting SWLY/WLY 8-12 kts this
afternoon, with possible thunderstorm winds of 40 kts. Light and
variable winds less than 10 kts overnight.  Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather disturbance will bring more wetting rain
chances into this evening, mainly east of Tucson. Thereafter, a
drier westerly flow will develop with rain chances decreasing and
ending by Thursday. A hotter weather pattern will develop later in
the week as high pressure aloft strengthens over the region into the
weekend. Cooler daytime temperatures and stronger wind speeds will
be possible early next week as a low pressure system enters the
western United States.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1154 AM MST Tue Sep 13 2022

AZZ507-508-513-131945-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000
Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
1154 AM MST Tue Sep 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Pima,
southwestern Cochise and northeastern Santa Cruz Counties through
1245 PM MST...

At 1154 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Sierra Vista, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Benson, Whetstone, Huachuca City, St. David, Tombstone,
Kartchner Caverns State Park, Fort Huachuca, Fairbank and Charleston.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 307 and 311.
 Route 80 between mile markers 294 and 328.
 Route 82 between mile markers 41 and 67.
 Route 90 between mile markers 293 and 332.
 Route 92 between mile markers 322 and 325.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3146 11021 3173 11054 3202 11023 3170 10983
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 226DEG 8KT 3161 11021

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1245 PM MST Tue Sep 13 2022

AZZ507-508-513-132030-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000
Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
1245 PM MST Tue Sep 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Cochise
County through 130 PM MST...

At 1245 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tombstone, or 18 miles northeast of Sierra Vista, moving northeast at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tombstone and Pearce-Sunsites.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 80 between mile markers 312 and 322.
 Route 82 between mile markers 66 and 67.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 10999 3176 11014 3196 10994 3176 10972
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 228DEG 9KT 3171 11001

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AWH