Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Tucson, AZ

412 
WWUS55 KTWC 291809
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1109 AM MST Wed Jun 29 2022

AZC019-291830-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220629T1830Z/
Pima-
1109 AM MST Wed Jun 29 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM MST
FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

At 1109 AM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Kitt Peak, or
17 miles east of Sells, and is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Kitt Peak and Pan Tak. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 11145 3191 11155 3195 11167 3205 11161
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 124DEG 2KT 3195 11159 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JRM

125 
WWUS55 KTWC 291831
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1131 AM MST Wed Jun 29 2022

AZC019-291841-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220629T1830Z/
Pima-
1131 AM MST Wed Jun 29 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Tucson.

LAT...LON 3196 11145 3191 11155 3195 11167 3205 11161
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 124DEG 2KT 3196 11160 

$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1002 AM MST Wed Jun 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will be present each
afternoon and evening this week across southeast Arizona with
plenty of moisture in place. High temperatures will remain near
to slightly below normal.

&&

.Update...Satellite and radar imagery is already showing showers
and T'Storms developing across SE AZ. Looking over the morning
CAMS, activity looks to be focused from SW Cochise/Santa Cruz
County into eastern/central Pima County. This follows the ThetaE
gradient and along the best PWATs/MUCAPE this afternoon.
Additionally, a weak upper level impulse moving out of Sonora
should provide a boost to convection later this afternoon and
perhaps into the evening hours. With that being said, this seems
to be a fairly average Monsoon day with the potential for a few
strong storms and localized flash flooding. Greatest risk will be
for the Contreras burn areas, Tucson metro, and areas that have
seen rain the past few days.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../issued 300 AM MST Wed Jun 29 2022/

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms will be present each
afternoon and evening this week across southeast Arizona with
plenty of moisture in place. High temperatures will remain near
to slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Last nights 500 mb plot placed the upper high north
of Flagstaff. This high will gradually push east today into NW NM.
PW values, although down a bit from past days, remains above
normal for late June. Steering flow becoming rather light this
afternoon thus slow moving storms. Combined with the above normal
PW values, main threat from storms will be heavy rain and flash
flooding. WPC has most of the area today under marginal risk in
the day 1 Excessive rainfall outlook.

Little change Thursday thru Saturday as the calendar flips from
June to July. Threat each day will be localize heavy rain and
flash flooding from slow moving thunderstorms.

The area will start to feel the influence of the west coast trof
Sunday into Monday as drier southwest flow aloft pushes deeper
moisture into NM. Thus expect a brief downturn in thunderstorm
activity for the 4th of July.

High temperatures over the next week will see daily variability
and mostly be at or a few degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 30/18Z. SCT clouds at 9k-11k ft AGL
with ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA thru 29/18Z. Between 29/18Z and 30/04Z,
SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-9k ft AGL and SCT SHRA/TSRA. Diminishing
clouds and shower/storm activity aft 30/04Z. Erratic SFC wind
gusts and outflows in excess of 40 kts possible with TSRA during
the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise, SFC wind less than 12
kts and favoring an SLY/SELY direction. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the next
several days keeping RH values above critical thresholds. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening,
potentially lingering into the late night hours some nights. Any
storms will carry the threats of lightning, strong wind gusts and
localized flooding.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1022 AM MST Wed Jun 29 2022

AZZ502-503-515-291800-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Upper Santa Cruz River and
Altar Valleys including Nogales-Baboquivari Mountains including Kitt
Peak-
1022 AM MST Wed Jun 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Pima County
through 1100 AM MST...

At 1021 AM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Kitt Peak, or 20 miles east of Sells. This storm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly remote areas of central Pima
County.

This includes Route 286 between mile markers 22 and 25.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 11161 3184 11167 3193 11148 3178 11141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 243DEG 3KT 3182 11156

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRM