Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2022

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 16, 2022Pima County, Santa Cruz County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 16, 2022, 3:21 PM MST for Pima County, Santa Cruz County, Arizona. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 16, 2022, 3:21 PM MST (22:21 UTC)
Expired: Jul 16, 2022, 4:00 PM MST
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Pima County, AZ, Santa Cruz County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 56 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 752 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -365 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2088 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 16, 3:05 PM MST, 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 3:05 PM MST, 16 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
305 PM MST Sat Jul 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Above average heat will continue this weekend as we
see a daily chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. An uptick in monsoon activity is possible next week
with temperature returning closer to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have fired
across Santa Cruz county and southern Cochise county this
afternoon. This trend will continue into the evening hours mainly
west of a Safford to Sierra Vista line. Some of the stronger
storms will produce gusty/damaging winds and locally heavy rain.
The thunderstorm outflows will also generate areas of blowing
dust, especially W/NW of Tucson. later this afternoon into the
evening. A blowing dust advisory was issued for these areas
between 5 pm and 9 pm.

Sunday looks like a down day with warm mid-level temperatures
inhibiting storm development. At this time the best storm
activity will be across Santa Cruz county.

Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms each
day next week, with possible uptick in activity Wednesday and
Thursday associated with potential easterly wave passing by to our
south.

High temperatures remaining hot tomorrow then will gradually cool
on a daily basis down close to normal by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z.
ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA with CIGS 8-12k ft AGL from KTUS/KOLS to the
northwest through 17/06Z and returning after 17/20Z with less
coverage than this afternoon. Diurnal SFC winds generally less than
12 kts with the exception of gusty and erratic thunderstorm
outflows. Dust can be picked up along the I-10 corridor in the
evening hours. Best chance for outflows will be late afternoon and
early evening for KTUS. Some of the storms could be strong with
brief MVFR conditions and wind gusts above 40 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures will remain several degrees above
average through the weekend with daily thunderstorm chances. Strong
and erratic outflow winds from the stronger storms are expected.
Afternoon Min RH will stay above 15% with good to excellent
recoveries.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Blowing Dust Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM MST this evening for
  AZZ505.

 Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for
  AZZ501-502- 504.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 16, 1:50 PM MST, 1 hour 31 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 16, 2:45 PM MST, 36 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 PM MST Sat Jul 16 2022

AZZ503-162230-
Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales-
245 PM MST Sat Jul 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Pima
and southwestern Santa Cruz Counties through 330 PM MST...

At 245 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rio Rico, or 8 miles northwest of Nogales, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Nogales, Tubac, Rio Rico, Nogales International Airport, Patagonia
Lake State Park, Tumacacori, Pena Blanca Lake and Ruby.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 19 between mile markers 2 and 22.
 Route 82 between mile markers 1 and 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3139 11125 3140 11128 3164 11115 3154 11077
      3134 11089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 095DEG 13KT 3145 11104

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AWH

Local storm report, Jul 16, 2:47 PM MST, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
247 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             5 SW RIO RICO           31.44N 111.04W
07/16/2022  E1.00 INCH       SANTA CRUZ         AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY DIME SIZE HAIL WITH SOME QUARTER SIZE
            HAIL FOR A FEW MINUTES.

&&

KJS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 2:50 PM MST, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             3 SSW RIO RICO          31.44N 111.00W
07/16/2022  M1.50 INCH       SANTA CRUZ         AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.5 INCHES MEASURED BY A CALIBER MEASURING
            TOOL.

&&

KJS

Local storm report, Jul 16, 2:57 PM MST, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 PM MST SAT JUL 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             4 SSW RIO RICO          31.43N 111.00W
07/16/2022  E1.00 INCH       SANTA CRUZ         AZ   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

&&

KJS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 15, 5:00 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	45 min
Jul 15, 5:11 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	2 hr
Jul 15, 5:13 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 15, 5:18 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal	3 hr
Jul 15, 5:42 PM MST	Dust Storm Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal	93 min
Jul 15, 5:52 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Pinal	38 min
Jul 15, 5:53 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC		52 min
Jul 15, 6:06 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 15, 6:08 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	3 hr
Jul 15, 6:13 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Pinal	47 min
Jul 15, 6:48 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Pinal	42 min
Jul 16, 11:20 AM MST	Blowing Dust Advisory	TWC	Pima, Pinal	10 hr
Jul 16, 1:50 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	40 min
Jul 16, 1:54 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	51 min
Jul 16, 2:45 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	45 min
Jul 16, 3:46 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	44 min
Jul 16, 3:51 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Santa Cruz	39 min
Jul 16, 4:06 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	39 min
Jul 16, 4:28 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	47 min
Jul 16, 4:45 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	45 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2022 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.