Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
910 AM MST Fri Aug 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into
next week with an uptick in activity today through the weekend.
The main threats will be strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall
especially today through Saturday, with rainfall amounts peaking
later today into Saturday. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees
below normal starting today into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...No big changes in the forecast for today as the latest
high resolution models were showing an increase in rainfall coverage
through early Saturday morning. The low pressure system that had
tropical origin appeared to maintain some form of a low level
circulation as it tracked westward over the landmass of northern
Mexico. This circulation will remain over the northern Gulf of
California through tonight where sea surface temperatures have been
running around 85 to 90 degrees. Satellite imagery this morning was
showing a complex of showers and thunderstorms expanding over the
Gulf's water. It will be interesting to see how this deep convection
over the Gulf evolves today and what influence it will have the low
pressure system through early Saturday. Please refer to the previous
forecast discussion in this product for details. More details will
be forthcoming with the afternoon forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 20/18Z.
ISOLD to SCT SHRA/TSRA across the area by 19/22z then bcmg
widespread over the area thru the end of the valid pd. Stronger
showers and storms could reduce visibilities in heavy downpours,
briefly lower CIGS to 5k- 8k ft AGL, and/or produce gusts of 40+
kts. Otherwise, winds following diurnal trends at speeds of 10kts or
less can be expected. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal thunderstorm activity will ramp up through
the weekend with rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected each
day. Primary threats include strong winds, lightning, and flash
flooding. Outside of thunderstorm activity, wind trends will remain
light and follow typical diurnal trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../Issued at 339 AM MST Fri Aug 19/
For today, showers and thunderstorms will be gradually increasing in
areal coverage across the area with main threats bring heavy
downpours. Areas of heavy rain will continue to be a threat
overnight into Saturday. A flash flood watch remains in effect from
later this morning through Saturday evening. The heavy rain will
lead to significant flows in some of the mainstem river systems and
larger washes that could last into Monday.

High temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal into
early next week with the anticipation of the rain and cloudiness.

Next week will see the typical diurnal trends of showers and
thunderstorms across the area with warmer daytime temperatures.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    Flood Watch from 11 AM MST today through Saturday evening for
    AZZ501>515.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson