Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Tucson, AZ

601 
WWUS85 KTWC 010951
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
251 AM MST Sun May 1 2022

AZZ150>154-020300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0010.220501T1800Z-220502T0300Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 150
Sonoran FDRA-Most of Pima County-South Central Pinal County-
Tohono O'odham Nation-Tucson Metropolitan area-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
251 AM MST Sun May 1 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITY, STRONG WINDS, AND VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER RATINGS...

* AFFECTED AREA...Eastern Fire weather zone 150, and Fire weather
  zones 151 through 154. 

* TIMING...Late this morning into this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 mph gusting 35 to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...5 to 12 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Heed local restrictions. Avoid parking on grassy areas and check
for dragging tow chains. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$


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314 
WWUS85 KTWC 020248
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
748 PM MST Sun May 1 2022

AZZ150>154-020400-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-220502T0300Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 150
Sonoran FDRA-Most of Pima County-South Central Pinal County-
Tohono O'odham Nation-Tucson Metropolitan area-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
748 PM MST Sun May 1 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

Although breezy southwest to west winds will persist for the next
few hours, winds will continue to diminish overnight. Therefore,
the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire at 8 PM MST.

$$


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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
217 AM MST Sat Apr 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected for the
next seven days. Winds will be on the lighter side today before
picking back up on Sunday. Gusty winds will continue into next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through next Friday.

Today will be quite warm with temps popping back up above normal
as a weak ridge passes across the region. By tonight, near zonal
flow will transition to southwesterly as the next low pressure
system digs southward from the PacNW, across the Great Basin, and
towards the Four Corner region on Sunday. No moisture or
precipitation is expected for southeast Arizona with this system
but it will create widespread gusty winds Sunday afternoon into
Sunday evening. Southwest gusts between 25-35 mph are looking
likely which combined with the lack of moisture will lead to
increased wildfire danger. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for the area. Winds are marginal but with very dry
fuels and single digit afternoon RH values, have erred on the side
of caution.

The next weather system to watch will be right on the Sunday
system's heels for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Cluster
analysis continues to resolve variability in the depth and the
speed of this system which could shift the finer details from the
current forecast. In general, breezy and dry conditions are
expected almost every day. Fire weather concerns will continue as
a result. Max and min temperatures will change very little from
day to day, running several degrees above normal in the
afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/12z.
SKC with SFC wind speeds less than 12 kts through the forecast
period, with gusts to 20 kts 30/20z-01/03z. SFC wind will follow
typical diurnal trends switching from a SE direction during the late
night and morning hours to NW during the afternoon and evening.
Expect an increase in wind speeds Sunday afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Lighter wind speeds are expected today with intermittent afternoon
gusts possible. Fire weather concerns rise for Sunday as a
passing weather system brings increasing winds across southeast
Arizona. Surface wind speeds of 15-25 mph gusting of 25-35 mph
are looking probable. Even though winds are forecast be marginal
for Red flag criteria, have erred on the side of caution with
single digit RH values and very dry fuels in place. Therefore, a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for southeast Arizona on
Sunday. Breezy conditions will continue Monday onward with RH
values dropping below 10 percent each day. Temperatures will
remain consistently several degrees above normal this weekend into
late next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ150>154.

&&

Public...Guillet
Aviation...Drozd
Fire Weather....Guillet

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