Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

227 
WWUS85 KTWC 150939
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
239 AM MST Tue Feb 15 2022

AZZ150>154-160015-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0001.220215T1800Z-220216T0300Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 150
Sonoran FDRA-Most of Pima County-South Central Pinal County-
Tohono O'odham Nation-Tucson Metropolitan area-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
239 AM MST Tue Feb 15 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 150, 151, 152, 153, AND 154...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zones 150, 151, 152, 153 and 154, 
  which is all of southeast Arizona. 

* TIMING... late this morning through the evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 30 mph, with gusts to 40-45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...7-14 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$


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402 
WWUS85 KTWC 152236
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
336 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022

AZZ150>154-160300-
/O.CON.KTWC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220216T0300Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 150
Sonoran FDRA-Most of Pima County-South Central Pinal County-
Tohono O'odham Nation-Tucson Metropolitan area-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
336 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150, 151,
152, 153, AND 154...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zones 150, 151, 152, 153 and 154, 
  which is all of southeast Arizona. 

* TIMING...Through 8 PM MST this evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 30 mph, with gusts to 40-45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...7-14 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop or are ongoing will have the 
  potential to spread rapidly.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...Visit 
  weather.gov/Tucson and click on the Detailed Hazards Icon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are expected to develop. A
combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and dry
vegetation will create the potential for rapid and erratic fire
growth.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of the Red Flag Warning for portions of Southeast Arizona.

&&

$$


Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

579 
WWUS85 KTWC 160307
RFWTWC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
807 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022

AZZ150>154-160415-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220216T0300Z/
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 150
Sonoran FDRA-Most of Pima County-South Central Pinal County-
Tohono O'odham Nation-Tucson Metropolitan area-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 151
Western half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southeast corner of Pinal County-
Extreme Eastern Pima County-Western third of Cochise County-
Santa Cruz County-TDC-Arizona Fire Weather Zone 152
Eastern half Desert Grasslands FDRA including elevations up to
5500 feet in Southwest Graham County and Eastern two thirds of
Cochise County-Southern San Carlos Reservation-
Southern Greenlee County below 5000 feet-TDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 153
Northern Graham County-Northern Greenlee County-
White and Gila Mountains-Apache Sitgreaves NF-
Southern San Carlos Reservation above 5000 feet-SDC-
Arizona Fire Weather Zone 154
Forest Woodlands FDRA including the Sky Islands of Southeast
Arizona above 5500 feet-Coronado NF-TDC-
807 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST 
WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150, 151, 152, 153, AND 154...

Winds will diminish overnight as RH values recover.

$$


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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
154 PM MST Mon Feb 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure and warm weather will begin to retreat
as a winter storm system impacts the area over the coming days.
Strong gusty winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, including a
chance of valley rain and mountain snow Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures are unseasonably warm yet again as an
upper ridge remains the dominant pattern. Skies are clear and
winds are benign, although change is just over the horizon. An
upper low will be swinging down the western coastal states
tomorrow, resulting in a gradient squeeze and strong southwesterly
winds Tuesday afternoon. ECMWF EFI shows climatologically
anomalous winds, at least above the 60th percentile across most
of the forecast area. Mountain tops will be rather gusty with a
40-45 kt 700mb jet and once you factor in the low relative
humidities, Red Flag conditions are anticipated region wide.

Meager rainfall amounts accompany this system on Wednesday. NBM QPFs
are in the vicinity of a few hundredths and perhaps an inch of
snowfall at the higher mountain elevations (or slightly more in
the White Mountains). High temperatures drop considerably, roughly
20 degrees from values seen today. Winds remain a little blustery
on Wednesday, but not to the same extent as Tuesday. Conditions
mellow on Thursday, with one more weak shortwave trough that
sweeps across keeping a slight chance of snow in the Whites.
Ridging then builds in allowing temperatures to recover each day
heading into the weekend, with dry weather for all locations.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/00Z.
Clear skies for much of the forecast period. SFC wind 12 kts or
less WLY/NWLY in direction, becoming variable this evening.
Tomorrow, strong SWLY winds are expected peaking 20-25 kts gusts
35-40 kts during the afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of
southeast Arizona from late Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening, for strong and gusty southwest winds and low relative
humidity values. Expect wind speeds of 15 to 30 mph and gusts up
to 40-45 mph, with relative humidity values of 7-14 percent.

Light precipitation amounts are expected on Wednesday, with snow
at the higher elevations. High temperatures drop sharply at this
point, slowly warming over the rest of the week. Some westerly
breeziness remains on Wednesday, fully decreasing by Thursday and
remaining as such until a potential increase Sunday into next
Monday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ150>154.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ507>510-512-
513.

&&

Howlett

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